Yes, Kevin Pritchard is saying he doesn’t want to move anyone off this roster . . . what do you expect him to say?
A few more thoughts on the Portland roster situation:
For all you people who are talking about Bayless “developing” behind Steve Blake and Andre Miller, forget about it. There is no time for him to play. Period. In previous years, three point guards played because the No. 2 guy didn’t have much of a grip on the position. That will not be the case this season. There won’t be enough time for Blake and Miller, let alone anyone else. Injury is the only way the No. 3 guy plays. In fact, given the few minutes a game Nate McMillan gives to Roy at the point, I’d hate to be the Blazer coach when it comes to figuring out the Blake/Miller playing time.
As for worrying what happens in two or three years when Miller is gone, don’t worry. In that amount of time all kinds of things can change. Certainly Jerryd Bayless isn’t still going to be hanging around.
A lot of people figure, so a few players are going to be unhappy with their playing time, so what? They’re getting paid good money. Sit there and be quiet. Well, it doesn’t work that way. These are the kinds of things that can tear a team apart. And aren’t you the same people who talk about chemistry being so important?
Yes, Kevin Pritchard is saying he wants to hold onto all his players. He says he loves these guys. What would you expect him to say? I think he’s trying to convince his NBA brethren that he’s not desperate to deal Outlaw and Bayless. A lot of them think he is and it’s going to affect the price. So as for not getting more for Bayless, Outlaw and a first-round pick than a backup power forward, which is what I suggested yesterday, I still believe they are in desperate need of clearing some players out.
And everybody in the league knows it.
NBA, Trail Blazers | Dwight Jaynes | July 26, 2009
Andre Miller, Dwight Jaynes, Jerryd Bayless, Kevin Pritchard, Portland Trail Blazers, Steve Blake
Dwight,
I see some other possibilities. Bayless is not really a distributor, so he needs to play along side a distributor. Someone who will take the defenses attention away from him, and yet still pass him the ball in rhythm. Neither Blake’s and Roy’s strengths are as primary set up men, they are shooters, finishers, yet they still work well off each other.
But, there are now two players on the roster who may fit well with Bayless. Both Miller and Fernandez are excellent, willing, passers and have the ability to set Jerryd up. Remember, all Jerryd needs is a crack or an alley, and he becomes a dangerous scorer who also gets to the free throw line. On offence Rudy or Miller do the majority of decision making, and on defense Jerryd takes the quicker, more athletic player.
I will agree with you that it does not look the greatest right now, today, for Bayless, but I still feel that it is way to early to say that the Blazers cannot make this thing work. I also believe that Miller could be a great deal of help to both Greg and Travis. As far as trade value goes, it would be foolish to give Bayless, Outlaw, and a first round pick away at bargain basement prices. Now that would be panicking.
One thing I’ve gleaned from this blog is the importance of backup players being happy. Of course, I also know dissension sells newspapers – or it used to anyway.
In fact, sports writers often play a big role in disrupting team unity as well, but that doesn’t bother them, so why should it concern them if players’ are unhappy about their minutes? Team chemistry is essential but we’re not running a therapy group here.
One thing an organization can’t afford is to have no backups ready in case of injury. You can’t invest all this time and money in a product only to miss the playoffs because of a 2 or 3 week stretch where you’re thin because of injuries and you unloaded some unhappy 2nd-year man.
If Bayless is upset, remind him he had a great chance last season when Steve separated his shoulder.
If he had played like I thought he was going to, he would have leapt over Sergio, but that didn’t happen.
All you can hope for is a chance. He got one last year and it could happen again. When they talk about what an iron man someone is – like Miller – I always see problems ahead.
Bayless should try improving in practice and stay ready for his second big chance. If he moves on from here, he could get what he wants, but he could end up out of the league, too.
I don’t think he deserves to have playing time issues yet. To paraphrase Coach McKay’s comment about the football not being heavy:
Bayless on the bench is not a problem. There’s plenty of room.
Good point about injuries/opportunities. During that Jan-Feb stretch you mention, Bayless was getting 20+ minutes a game. He had his moments (23 pts against the Nets, 8 asst vs the SuperStolens) but for the most part was inconsistent, as most rookies are. Bayless needs to chill the fu*k out and wait his turn.
Bill — Yeah, Bayless on the bench is not a problem. FOR YOU! I guarantee you it is from him. Do you listen to the guy? He was telling everyone it was going to be “a battle” between him and Blake for the starting job. Oh, it will be a problem all right. Pro sports aren’t like high school where guys are just happy to be on the team. They have new contracts to earn. And the point, too, is that good organizations don’t do this — they don’t jam up their rosters with too many playing-time problems for their coach to puzzle out. They clearly delineate a pecking order that makes sense that a coach can live with. McMillan is going to have that kid in his office, or in his face, constantly.
The pecking order seems pretty clear. Miller and Blake getting the bulk of the minutes and Bayless getting the scraps. He won’t be happy but if he can be patient, his time will come.
Dwight,
Thanks for this comment. You make a great point about good organizations not doing this. I believe the Blazers are a good organization, and as such, there are further changes in store on the roster.
But do you think Pritchard overvalues players like Bayless, Blake, Outlaw, Webster, and Batum to the rest of the league? For instance, do we know what Pritchard offered in the sign and trade offer to the Knicks for David Lee?
“Bayless, get in here to my office.”
“Thanks, I was hoping for a chance to discuss my feelings and stuff about not playing next year.”
“Never mind that now. We need you to go out to the airport and pick Andre Miller up.”
Bill, that was the funniest thing I have read all day!
I agree, it is going to be a problem for Bayless that he’s not getting minutes. But you know what, until he proves himself during the NBA season, it doesn’t really matter. This is going to be his second year in the league, while at the same time, he would only be a Junior in College. He can whine all he wants, but Jerryd is going to have to live with the consequences of forgoing the rest of his college career to be in the NBA. Plenty of players whine about not getting enough playing time. It’s part of way the league is. You just have to deal with it.
With all that in consideration, I believe Bayless will accept his role this year. Don’t you think the reason why Bayless was talking about it being “a battle” for the starting point guard position is because there were only two point guards on the team before the Miller signing?
And you talk about how “good” organizations don’t log-jam their rosters with “playing time problems”. Well, what are the Magic, Cavs, and Celtics doing? These teams are seemingly buying up every free agent on the market. The Blazers pick up one free agent, and all of the sudden they’re creating all these PT issues. Guess what, if Portland had signed Hedo Turkoglu, we would have been in a far worst position than we are now with Andre. Jerryd has no right to PT right now, and the way I see it, the Blazers already have that “pecking order”.
Maybe Blake is the guy on the block. His value will never be higher than it is right now, and Blake + Outlaw (two expiring contracts) would be appealing to a team that is desperate to unload salaries.
Yeah there is definitely a case to be made for Bayless being traded, I agree there, I’m just saying if Blake goes, maybe they can live with Miller/Bayless/Jeter at the point (though I doubt if Jeter hangs around for training camp unless the deal is made over the summer).
If you deal Blake, it leaves you with NO outside shooting at the point. Blake gives you a contrast with Miller and a guy who can play in the last few minutes of a game and can be trusted. Nobody would say the same about Bayless at this point.
Trusted to do what? Fire up a rushed and ill-advised three that airs it out like in the playoffs?
Bayless may not have to wait two years. Blake’s contract is up after this year. If Bayless shows he is ready this year, Blake would become the odd man out and not return. How will he show he is ready? By working his butt off and stepping up when he gets his chance. There will be some point in the season where he will get a chance to show what he can do.
Take a look at this Draft Express profile on Bayless while he was still at Arizona. It’s uncanny. It’s exactly what we’re discussing daily. It even predicts the possibility that Bayless ends up on ‘the wrong team’ where tempo and roster issues point out his obvious flaws.
It’s halfway down the page under ‘NCAA Weekly Performers’
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jerryd-Bayless-1067/
Why don’t you try reading the entire Draft Express review, all the way back to HS. There are a lot of reasons to be optimistic about Bayless, and many of them are outlined in thst review.
You and some of your media colleagues seem really eager to trade Jerryd and Travis away. A few weeks ago you were eager to tout that there would never be enough minutes for Rudy to fully develop in Portland.
Maybe trades for those players will happen, maybe not. Kevin Pritchard appears far less pressed or concerned about these “issues”. Both Blake’s and Miller’s contracts still fit into the time frame for Bayless to develop. If he doesn’t, he will be traded, but there is less urgency here than the media would like to see. Blake could be out the door at the deadline, or next offseason just quietly go when his contract is up. Like Channing, and several before him. Miller’s deal with the team option is structured so he could be traded as an expiring contract as soon as the 2011 deadline, or more likely during the following offseason as an instant “get 7 million off your cap” chip. KP will hold onto Bayless as long as he perceives value in doing so.
As a recent example, KP also didn’t trade Sergio until he had publicly demanded a change of playing time/style or scenery twice. He held onto him for a long time, and even then still tried to find a spot for him where he could contribute. You really think moving up 5 spots in the draft in the second round was the best best offer he ever got for Sergio?
Pritchard has repeated multiple times that it’s his job to acquire the best players available, even pretty much independent of position, and Nate’s job is to figure out how to use those players most efficiently. If someone has to sit, he sits. Acquiring Hedo wouldn’t have led to a minutes crunch on SF? Acquiring Millsap wouldn’t have led to a minutes crunch in the big men rotation? KP didn’t really care, he wanted to get the best guy available. Now he took Miller. Sure Jerryd won’t be stoked about this development, but that doesn’t mean KP has trade plans lined up for him. He will take up the fight for minutes, and that’s what KP and Nate expect of him.
Pritchard can afford to wait until later in the season to see what transpires. I would venture to say that the value the players people are eager to trade away will only rise in the next months and years, especially Rudy’s and Jerryd’s if he gets playing time. At least he provides depth for both guard spots. And Travis seems to have more value to Nate than many people realize. He constantly trusts him with major minutes in the 4th on either forward spot. Maybe Martell is ready to contribute minutes at the start of the season, maybe not. If he isn’t, Travis’ position on the team becomes more secure. Same if none of the new draft picks steps up to take his minutes on 3/4. Unless KP can find a sizable upgrade (say Butler/Jamison if Washington has to size down costs, or Gerald Wallace, and that acquisition would have its own risks) Travis isn’t going anywhere.
A well reasoned post based on what KP has actually said, not mere conjecture. There are way to many posts by fans and sportswriters alike that essentially come to the conclusion that the “sky is falling.” The sky is not falling, well forget about the ozone problems, you know what I mean. KP has not had a lobotomy or a nervous break down. Players will generally honor their contracts and make the best out of it.
The truth is we don’t know enough about how the point guard situation is going to work out for this year to allow ourselves to be forced into making premature changes. Injuries of various kinds (nagging to debilitating), individual player improvements, as well as trade value assessments can all factor into how players are used.
There have already been a number of roster moves, with a couple more minor moves to come. KP has it right, I’ll take him at his word; unless something really big comes up, we need to see where we are at before getting so carried away that it looks like we are trying to start all over again with a shorter championship window. Win now, yes. Win now, at all costs, NO!
Good responses and well thought out replies. I don’t think they have any inclination of making more moves until possibly the trading deadline. It would be to the team’s advantage to hold this young low cost talent pool until atleast then.
If they make a move, my guess it will be for a real impact player. Other than that, KP and Nate are gonna let them battle for minutes
btw getting rid of Bayless would be foolish with Blake having only one year left on his contract. Besides Bayless is only 20, and this gives him more time to learn under a true pg like Miller
If Blake walks next year when his contract is up, you will wish you’d have held onto a developing Bayless. Jerryd’s immediant goal was to take Steve’s spot, that can still be his goal this year.
Dwight, I hope you are right, but I got a bad feeling KP really does want to keep all his players. That’s his downfall in my opinion.
You hope Dwight is right? You hope Bayless, Outlaw, and a first round pick are traded?
I’m just curious as to your reasons for the trades, if that is what you have in mind. What do we get back in your mind? Who specifically?
Bayless was the difference in at least two games last year (New Jersey and New Orleans) and Outlaw was the difference in several more. I don’t think I would be out of line to suggest a very real possibility of six fewer wins without those two players contributions last year. That would have left us with 48 wins. And that number of wins would have given us what playoff spot?
I am not trying to be smart, I am just wondering if you know what you are wishing for? If you really do have a specific plan in mind, then I may stand corrected, but until then, this greener pastures philosophy puzzles me.
Dwight has a few more sources and inside info than most of us fans do. So I have to put some stock into the “desperation” that some other organizations seem to think is coming off KP to thin out his roster. Ultimately someone’s sacred cow is going to be slaughtered. Trades are going to have to be made. I just wonder how much influence these days Nate has with KP in all of this? I wonder if Nate’s influence on personnel matters is a side effect of his whole one yr at a time contract status? I mean would not logic say of KP wants to keep Nate around and happy he is going to have to give him more push with personnel now? There is always the chance he is the one who walks at the end of the year? It seems Nate had a ton of push in getting KP to turn from the back up PF and get the playmaker PG that he wanted. I don’t think Nate wants to trade Travis. Trout has been a very valuable, second only to Roy in game winning, piece in Nate’s system. My bet, Outlaw stays another year cuz of Nate. Nates loves Blake. He fits his system. I bet if KP gets the word from Nate Bayless gets cashed out. In the past it always seemed mostly KP’s to deal or no deal. I just wonder how much push Nate has nowdays either way?
I fail to see the desperation. Were a team under the cap with all the low cost talented young crop. We also have a couple valuable players in the last year of their contracts
Come trading deadline when the reality of the financial losses hit full steam, those teams that are over the cap (the true desperate ones) will come knockin on Pritchard’s door
I don’t see the team in any sort of immediate dire strait either. But the Godfather is hearing it from sources around the league so I do believe that at least that perception of desperation is out there. I tend to think if Nate tells KP he can roll with the current roster and manage it then they will roll with it at least until the deadline. Nate is the read I can’t get in all of this. I don’t believe KP feels desperation with a stacked roster. Every GM’s dream come true right? So is the desperation coming from Nate? You don’t see it or hear it publicly from Nate. Not to put words in the Godfathers mouth; but I think that may kinda be the point in the undercurrent of Dwights post. Nate is pushing KP to rid himself of any potential problem child for the up-coming season.
You know I would agree Dwight. The blazers not only need a point guard this season and next, but they need a point guard and floor general for years to come with this squad. They have taken their cap space and spent it on a player that may give them two good years and then he is going to be gone. In two years once they elect not to keep him, they are going to be probably more than 20 mil over the cap and no space to replace him.
Instead of taking your cap space that you have worked very hard to create for two plus seasons and use it towards a guy that is going to give you two good seasons at the most. Why not take some of the depth that you speak of and go trade for a point guard that could and will be around for a much longer period of time? You talk about Rudy Fernandez and his desire of wanting more time and more of a role someday. Let’s start with him. Then take Outlaw and Bayless package them with him. Dangle that package out to other teams that have that point you are looking for and see what happens. Or maybe just wait it out and see if you can broker a deal in a lopsided deal for one in a few months down the road.
For the life of me, I just didn’t get why Kevin and the blazer brass was so gitty about jumping on the signing of Andre Miller. They had time before their funds expired.
Just makes no sense.
One possible reason. Cuz Nate wanted Miller. KP flat out admitted it was Nate’s influence that pushed the Miller deal. Nate wanted another playmaker and he wanted it now. He did not want to take the chance of a maybe down the road. Nate wants to win now. I don’t think Nate is any longer looking that year or two down the road. It’s just win baby and it’s win now.
I’m sure there are other guys out there that could have branded and sold themselves to Nate the same way Andre Miller did.
Much younger ones.
Maybe, but available guys? Who? Nate wanted experience. He wanted Miller at the deadline last year. They got a good deal with Miller. A far better contract deal than say a Hinrich would have been.
You know I would agree Dwight. The blazers not only need a point guard this season and next, but they need a point guard and floor general for years to come with this squad. They have taken their cap space and spent it on a player that may give them two good years and then he is going to be gone. In two years once they elect not to keep him, they are going to be probably more than 20 mil over the cap and no space to replace him.
Instead of taking your cap space that you have worked very hard to create for two plus seasons and use it towards a guy that is going to give you two good seasons at the most. Why not take some of the depth that you speak of and go trade for a point guard that could and will be around for a much longer period of time? You talk about Rudy Fernandez and his desire of wanting more time and more of a role someday. Let’s start with him. Then take Outlaw and Bayless package them with him. Dangle that package out to other teams that have that point you are looking for and see what happens. Or maybe just wait it out and see if you can broker a deal in a lopsided deal for one in a few months down the road.
For the life of me, I just didn’t get why Kevin and the blazer brass was so gitty about jumping on the signing of Andre Miller. They had time before their funds expired.
Just makes no sense.
Hinrich is 4 years younger than Andre and only makes 2 mil less. I think would have rather had him.
Hinrich is 4 years younger than Andre and only makes 2 mil less. I think would have rather had him
2 mil more rather
Frankly I would have rather had Hinrich too. But “reportedly” the Bulls wanted another player, Bayless/Outlaw, to make the deal. You have to figure that into the cost of the deal. At least the Blazers did and deemed it too high of a price. I did not want Miller going into FA either. Of all the options left. The fact they gave up nothing but cap space to get him on a very friendly contract it was not a bad deal. It is growing on me. I can see it working. Nate got the playmaker and experience he wanted and Vulcan got the contract they wanted. In business they call that a win/win.
So pull the trigger? Travis and Bayless for Kirk Hinrich. An expendable wing man and a point guard who has just fully defined himself as an undersized two who won’t get any time for this team.
Yes. Pull the trigger. You get your future point plus you then out your roster at the same time.
who cares about outside shooting at the point! do you know what a point guard is for dwight?
I may be somewhere between way off base to just annoying with this notion. It is outside the lines of this post from Dwight admittedly. If I am please feel free to kick it to the curb. But there is something going on in all this “desperation” that is tripping me up. Where is its genesis? I mean who is brewing this concoction? It could all just be smoke screen from other GM’s. The motivation in it makes no sense. The notion is that KP is desperate. Why would KP be desperate? He loves his roster. I keep coming back to Nate. I see a genius, or maybe evil genius, in Nate. I have wondered about his whole year at a time contract mantra since it was announced. It is unique in professional sports coaching ranks to say the least. Some say it is a great deal for the team. It is also a great deal for Nate. He has potentially more leverage now than he ever has had in molding the team in his image. Think about it. Outside of player injury what could derail a Blazers season most at this point? Nate saying I quit. On a one year deal could not Nate comfortably say at any time bye, bye? Financially and professionally he could easily sit out a season with little to no harm. KP knows this. KP admitted Nate pushed hard for the Miller deal and he got it. I guess all I am thinking is there is more risk than ever in KP telling Nate no these days. Is this the source of KP’s desperation?
I would love to know what Portland could get in exchange for Outlaw and Bayless. As a package, it seems like they could net one quality player.
Here we go again! You want to trade Bayless and Outlaw just to see what we could get for them. Maybe then we could trade that guy and see who we could get, and so on and so on. I am looking for a psychological pattern here.
I get it. You have an IMAGINARY player in mind and you want to make a deal. You just know this amalgamation of your dreams would help us to win a title.
I hate to interrupt a dream, but how about, if we mention the name(s) of particular Blazers that we want to see traded, then we also mention the name of the player we are trading for, (I know I am being difficult here.) because these one sided, imaginary, deals NEVER work out, and are a real problem from an evaluation standpoint. It’s kind of like the girlfriend that dumps you because she just knows there is SOMEBODY else, better, OUT THERE.
Not only do I not care if Bayless doesn’t get minutes, I don’t care if he cares. I like Bayless don’t get me wrong, but there’s a couple of problems that he can’t fix no matter how hard he works. One being that he doesn’t have that innate court vision that allows true point guards to make snap decisions on the fly and the other being that he’s too short to play shooting guard effectively at the NBA level. Now maybe he can develop court vision. Maybe he can carve out a place as a stocky attacking guard ala Billups, who himself took five years to really bloom (although due in part to an early injury). He’s a gym rat, and he clearly has a hard head. That’s a major plus. If he doesn’t pan out for the Blazers he’ll garner similar trade value to Jack. So be it. Like they say, you trade for talent not for the best fit to your squad. That aside it is still possible that he develops into a functional tool for subsequent Blazer title runs. It’s possible.
Nate likes to give Roy minutes at the point. Nate no longer has to do this. Miller fulfills that role now. Roy does not have to make those high pressure decisions anymore. That’s part of the major benefit of signing Miller. Another benefit being that Miller has the ability to attack and break down a defense. Who’s been doing that for the past three years, often to the detriment of his physical well being? Brandon Roy. So you see Miller will act to extend Roy’s longevity. Some people have lamented that the Blazers won’t be able to stretch the floor as well without Blake’s three point shooting. That’s just silly. Having a point guard that can be on the ball and pressure the defense himself, run screen and rolls with Roy, pick and pops with a sharp shooting mid rage Aldrige, and pick and rolls with Oden is far superior. What do they always say? Live by the three die by the three. The three players mentioned above that benefit from this style of point just happen to be the Blazers big three. The Blazers will no longer be as dependent on the hot shooting of Fernandez/Outlaw/Webster et all.
The most important note on Miller versus Bayless/Blake being this: Miller will help Oden achieve the breakout year that the franchise, or more importantly he, needs to have.
Of course it would be preferable to have Bayless develop into what this teams needs. A young man with his hunger may be able to channel his frustration into a true fruition of NBA ability. Until then lets enjoy acquiring a PG that will aid our prime moves and take this team closer to the real goal. Rings, baby.
Thanks for your blog, and the discussions on Talking Ball. I enjoy both very much.
Martell’s jersey’s are all drastically reduced in the Blazers store.. maybe that’s just due to inventory since he hasn’t played for so long, but typically they only do that after a player has been dealt? Maybe he’s on his way out to create some additional roster space? Just seems out of the ordinary…
He changed his number for this season. I would assume that is why is jersey is on sale.
You know, now that you brought up Martell, all these problems with point guards would have been solved if it wasn’t for Martell. How? By drafting Chris Paul instead of Webster. Jeez…
Of course, this would have changed everything and we probably wouldn’t get B.Roy and LaMarcus and Oden, but it’s still a fun thought.
Fun?
If Bayless can’t beat out Blake for minutes, who cares if he’s unhappy? I don’t understand the fascination with young backup PGs with “potential” in this town. If he steps up his game and crushes Blake in practice but still can’t get minutes, then there’s a problem. Give the kid some credit for being smart enough to know that earning playing time and being consistent is on him.
Dwight you oughta read J Quick’s thoughts on Bayless. Frankly he’s a lot more in the loop than you are.