Subscribe Feed (RSS)You’re the higher seeded team and you come out in a Game 6 and give that kind of effort? I don’t even know what to make of that. Losing is perfectly acceptable. No problem with that. But the effort … that’s going to be difficult to explain. Seriously — does getting older suddenly make you mentally tougher? Well, it can. But that mental makeup stuff is hard to change. Most of the time, you’re either mentally tough or you aren’t.
But that’s the last time I’m going to say anything about that part of it for a while. I’d rather talk about things a little easier to pinpoint. And before I do, let me say this, just so you understand where I’m coming from:
THIS IS NOT A “FAN SITE.” Do you understand what I’m saying to you? This isn’t the spot where 28-year-old guys wearing their replica jerseys come to say, “We had a great season” or “We lost” or even “I love this team.” Nothing against those sites at all. Many of them are great.
It’s just that I spent too many years in the news business to operate that way. I’m here to try to analyze or break things down. I call it the way I see it and have all season. By now, you should understand that. But if you don’t like that, if you want some rah-rah “Oh, our poor kids had a great season, let’s all hold hands and serenade them” stuff, feel free to now quietly leave the room.
Yes, they had a good year. But yes, what we saw in the playoffs wasn’t pretty. And I want, over the next several days, to take a look at why this happened and what it means for the future. Where do they go from here?
I made a point on “Talkin’ Ball” last night and I really didn’t have much time to amplify it. I believe the Trail Blazers need to take a very hard look at their style of play during the regular season. I believe it led to many of the problems they had in the playoffs. Some of these things must change for the team to get to the next level.
Prior to the opening of this series, I had a chance to talk to a few NBA scouts who had prepared for the possibility of playing Portland in the first round. The only promise was that I couldn’t quote them directly or give any hints as to the teams they worked for. Most of them didn’t want their stuff printed until after the first-round series was finished.
I can tell you the one thing that stood out from what all of them told me – Portland is very easy to prepare for. The reason: “They run so many isolations.”
One scout said, “It’s really just about all they do — particularly in the fourth quarter. You know how they play, everybody does. They’re going to give Brandon Roy the ball at the top and just stand back and watch him play. They may run a little screen for him, but it’s window dressing — he’s going to try to take you.”
Well, he’s pretty good at that — what’s wrong with Brandon going one-on-one?
“Nothing, once in a while,” one scout said. “But he’s not going to go one-on-one against Houston in the playoffs. He’s going to go one-on-five. They just won’t let him get to the basket. They’re going to lock him up.”
Said another scout, “What he’s done a lot of this season is go left. That’s fine, but he tends to put his head down, head to the basket and jump into somebody, expecting a foul call. He isn’t going to pass, he’s going to go hard to the basket, looking for a whistle. In the playoffs, you don’t always get that call.”
I think those assessments were on the money, particularly in the Game 4 situation at the end of the game that may have decided this series. And it’s not unlike what we’ve been writing all season. The fact is, people talked all the time prior to the series about Houston having two players — Ron Artest and Shane Battier — who could defend Roy. Fact is, neither did much of a job. Artest, in particular, was easy meat for Roy all the time. Problem for Brandon, though, is that there were always two or three other guys standing there ready for him after he beat Artest off the dribble. That’s called “team defense” — a concept the Trail Blazers themselves have not entirely embraced yet.
I will say many other things in the future about the way the Blazers play but there’s one more thing that fits right in with what we’re talking about. Roy has the ball in his hands in one-on-one situations way too often. In fact, he has the ball in his hands, in general, way too much. He has the ball more often than Michael Jordan used to have it for the Bulls.
He’d profit from playing more often without it in his hands and so would his teammates. Much will be made about how little help Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge had in this series but a lot of that is a product of the team’s lack of offensive structure. Really, they don’t run a lot of team offense. Roy has the ball all the time, just looking to create stuff that’s mostly for himself. Others can go several trips up and down the floor without even touching it. Making no excuses for Rudy Fernandez last night, he was awful — but really, he didn’t get a lot of opportunities to get going in the first half, either.
It appeared Roy is just starting to go through what all the superstars go through. Kobe Bryant went through it, Larry Bird did and so did MJ. It’s all about learning to trust your teammates. Both Kobe and Jordan found out that scoring a whole bunch of points themselves didn’t really do anything to improve the team’s chances of winning. Only until they started turning responsibility over to their teammates did they begin to have meaningful success as a team and a team leader.
Roy appears to trust Aldridge. He trusts Outlaw because they’re buddies. But you don’t see him dishing much to anyone else. This is going to have to change.
So is the team’s tempo. It was unable to generate enough running game to get the Rockets out of their slow-paced waltz. But what do you expect? Portland itself played at an agonizingly slow pace all season. The team didn’t run much and didn’t get the ball inside much. In the second quarter Thursday night, Portland was missing jump shots with Yao Ming on the bench and Kyle Lowry, Carl Landry and Von Wafer out there killing them.
I said this the other day but I’ll repeat for what I’m sure is far from the last time: When every commentator on every television game, when every person you know who knows anything about basketball, when people you know who don’t know much about basketball, ALL say, “They take too many jump shots” — why do they keep taking all those jump shots???
It’s all way too overwhelming for a one-day conversation. Feel free to weigh in on today’s post — but try to confine your comments to just today’s stuff. There’s a lot more to come and we’d like to try to do this in an organized fashion. Eventually, we’ll get into some player evaluations and an off-season wish list. But not yet.
Tags: Brandon Roy, Dwight Jaynes, Houston Rockets, LaMarcus Aldridge, NBA playoffs, Portland Trail Blazers, Rudy Fernandez, Yao Ming
Let me be the first to comment.
Well said.
Thanks for keeping it real Dwight.
You live and die by the jump shot. Last night the blazers died. Let’s hope that Pritchard can continue his magic and make the necessary changes. I fear, however, that Pritchard (and management) have fallen in love with the roster and may be less than willing to make the changes. We’ll see.
It was a great season!!
I don’t disagree with your assessment, Dwight, but I think the problem isn’t just Roy’s lack of trust in other teammates, I think it’s lack of talent out there on the floor and relying too much on a mediocre passer in Roy to facilitate the offense. I think this team’s talent has been overrated. Don’t get me wrong, I think there’s talent there, but not of the sort that gets touted all the time. Start with the starters. Joel Pryzbilla, while a solid defensive player, can be a liability on offense. Great at setting picks, not so great at catching the ball in traffic. He doesn’t have great touch around the rim, and as often as not, when a teammate such as Brandon would penetrate and dish, the pass would be fumbled. Part of that is lack of great passers on this team, part of that is Joel just isn’t that adept at this sort of thing. But moving on to Nicholas Batum, you basically have a rookie with little to no offensive game outside of running the floor in transition or spotting up for an open three every once in awhile. He might develop an offensive game, or he might not. Right now, he’s an offensive liability, hence why people called for Rudy to start. Next up, point guard. I live Steve Blake – reliable, doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, shoots the three at a relatively high percentage. That’s nice and all, but he’s a solid backup point guard. His penetration skills are almost non-existent. Now and then you’ll see him take advantage of a wide-open lane to the loop, or penetrate and dish, but he can’t get around any defenders unless he catches them looking the other way. He’s not that great of a passer (he’s decent enough to be a solid backup) so you can’t really use him exclusively to run your offense. In particular, he’s not that great at feeding the post. He’s far more likely not to make a mistake than to make a great pass to a scorer in just the position they need to be most effective. So basically you’re down to Roy and Alridge, where I think the Blazers have talent, but you’re left with an all star and a potential all start. That’s really it for offense out of your starting 5. That might be ok if you had a solid defensive team with that unit, but they’re not. Roy coasts too much on defense to try and save himself for offense. Look at his quotes about how tired he was, and he’s not even going balls out on every defensive possession. Larmarcus is a nice complementary piece right now, but he’s too much of a jump shooter to really put much pressure on opposing team’s defenses. You need more than one player that can consistently get their defenders in foul trouble, and Lamarcus ain’t it. Then, you’re left with the bench, which essentially consists of Rudy, Greg, and Travis. Rudy will probably get better as he continues to learn the game at this level, and undoubtedly Greg will as well. Greg is still several years away, however, and I’m concerned about his ability to play defense without fouling. No player is ever going to have a big impact offensively if they can’t stay in the game. For him to be effective, Portland is going to have to get a player better at running the offense, someone who can consistently get the ball to him inside or make the difficult pass to him on pick and rolls or with him making hard cuts to the basket. Right now, Sergio and Rudy are the only passers capable of doing that consistently, and Rudy doesn’t have the all around skills to be a point guard and Sergio doesn’t have the jumpshot or defense to stay out there on the floor without being a huge liability. So you’re left with Travis Outlaw – the 6th year player that has basically shown you what you’re going to get out of him. Some nights you’re going to get a big offensive contribution out of him, some nights you’re not. Sometimes he’ll give you a big hustle play, most nights he’ll give you very little rebounding and inconsistent effort on defense. More often than not he’ll give you a boneheaded play, and every team will know that once the ball is passed to him, there’s a 90% chance he’s going to keep it until he shoots. He’s not as good as advertised, which is why I don’t believe he’s been traded yet – other teams just don’t value him as much as we have.
There – that’s my take on our talent – and while we’re still young, and can get better, I don’t see the talent yet that will take us deep into the playoffs year after year. Maybe Greg will eventually develop into that player we need for that, maybe Bayless will surprise me and against odds become a great playmaker with a completely reconstructed jumpshot. He’s young, so his potential shouldn’t be limited by my analysis yet. I think there’s still some changes that need to be made with the personnel on this team before they’re good enough just based on the roster they have.
Well said, Dwight – We all know they take way to many jump shots so the question is – Where are they going to get low post play – It’s obviously not from the Center position – Not from the PF position – so where? We need a low post player and until we get that we will never get past the 1st round.
Sorry about the length and the spelling errors.
GREAT analysis. Nate gets defensive when you question his coaching. But really, you have to consider the players KP has given him. Travis? jump shooter. LA? jump shooter. Frye? you guessed it. Rudy? Blake? Now what about the guys who aren’t jump shooters…Sergio, Bayless, Joel, Greg, bench guys. Those guys have no other offensive game to speak of! You mentioned mentality, and I think it would be extremely difficult to change this team’s mentality at this point without making some significant personnel changes. Unfortunately, Brandon is starting to develop some bad habits (head down, expecting calls, not trusting teammates), but at least we can say he plays with an aggressive mentality.
Sorry for the length and the spelling errors.
Last night was not the way a team that won 54 regular season game should look in an elimination game. Standing pat and thinking time will fix your problems didn’t work for the Hornets and it’s not going to work for the Blazers.
At the very least we need a penetrating PG that can take the pressure off Roy, and find the big men inside for easy buckets.
I like the personality of this team more, but boy, the Mike Dunleavy-coached teams of the early 2000’s were so much better at getting the ball to their post players and creating mismatches inside. Against the Lakers in the WCF, they would just post up Rasheed Wallace and Bonzi Wells all day and force L.A. to bring help, which opened up the floor for guys like Pippen and Steve Smith. This team has the same kind of potential with Aldridge and Roy (and eventually Oden), but they just don’t post up. It’s so frustrating to watch. Portland’s top three plays are: Roy isolation; run a shooter off one or two baseline screens; and post up Aldridge 18 feet from the basket. This is a huge waste of talent. And don’t tell me that they had respectable points-in-the-paint numbers during the regular season. That was only because Roy is great at driving to the hoop and the Blazers’ centers grab a ton of offensive rebounds.
Your spot on. It’s funny, because we have been saying the same problems all year long.
1. Steve Blake is not a great distributer, play-maker, defender and couldn’t run the fast break to save his life. A good shooter, but not play-maker. Portland needs one of these.
2. Too many jump shots and ISO’s. Duh. Aldridge 1 on 1, Roy 1 on 1, Blake 1 on 1. It’s really, really, really sad.
3. Where is the running game? Every time we played it this season we won, where is it at?
4. Pass the ball to Rudy. Rudy probably is our second best player, but he doesn’t get the ball. How does he attempt so little shot attempts and create such opportunity?
5. Recognizing and developing talent. Oden hadn’t improved. Batum didn’t improve too much over the course of the season (he played well from the get-go), Sergio didn’t improve, Bayless didn’t improve, Outlaw didn’t improve. We had no “wow, I am surprised” type talent off the Blazers. Shouldn’t someone be accountable for that?
6. Trusting the players. What everyone has failed to NOTE ALL SERIES/SEASON LONG. Is how did we not know Von Wafer was this talented? He didn’t just do this overnight. Imagine if he had been on our team? How did his talent escape McMillian?
7. There is no true defensive scheme or offensive scheme. ISO’s, Zones, Man-to-Man. That’s it.
8. Robo-rotations. Doesn’t matter if a player is hot, x player is coming in at x time. Real coaches do not coach that way.
9. Taking a technical for the team by McMillian. I thought he was going to “stand-up” for us all season? Pick up a freaking technical.
10. Coach changed the lineup in the playoffs and with his robo-rotation, we still won 54 games. So why did he decide to change at the ending of the season? (Removing Sergio). Why did he transplant Rudy in COMPLETE substitution of Batum? Shouldn’t it of been Batum replacing Outlaw or Blake then?
I can go on and on about items like this and it points back to a few major flaws. Yes, Outlaw is a problem, but he isn’t holding us back. McMillian and Blake are successfully holding this team back. My corporate headquarters is in Houston and even they had nice compliments on the team – but they see the exact problems I have.
If Houston fans that have watch 9 Houston/Portland games this year can point this out, if scouts point this out, if fans point this out……….Then why will we be content?
Thank you Dwight:
“Portland is very easy to prepare for. The reason: “They run so many isolations.””
I’ve been saying this all season. I hate our offensive sets, the lack of ball and player movement. Generally, I get chastised for saying it with the added caveat that “Portland has the best offensive efficiciency in the NBA”. Well, I say that is due to offensive rebounding and a great one on one player, not due to a well-constructed offense.
I believe one of the reasons we often fall victim to big runs by the other team is that we very very seldom generate easy baskets – either in transition or in the halfcourt. Every bucket we get is work.
A needed dose of reality. The biggest key for this team is to develop Oden and get Roy to trust him and look for him. That’s not the only thing that needs to happen, certainly, but I don’t see how this team wins a title without a dominant Oden.
my mantra all year has been MAD DOG MEAN! FANGS AND FOAM BABY FANGS AND FOAM! well this series points out that these blazers, while awfully talented, do lack that mad dog meaness. in the off season we need three things in my assesment…
1… a player that can bring that attitude and show the fangs and foam when needed.
2… a 3 that can and will find his own shot and can rebound and defend, both in the post and on the perimiter.
3… a point guard that can defend, drive the ball to the hoop, and distribute effectivly.
greg oden will develop in the off season but i do think that there should be someone brought in to “show” this kid how to play. joel is a great mentor but he has to worry about his game and can only do so much to tutor the youngster. coach lucas is and has been fighting his own health battles and has not had the time to work consistantly with greg. but in any event he needs some very intensive work by someone that knows from whence they speak.
we’ve got to stop talking about getting rid of nate also. he has done a masterful job of growing this team in the last 4 years. he started with nothing and has at least 10 more wins every year…what more can a person ask of him? what more can he do as a coach? we are lucky to have him.
and lastly we need to thin some dead wood off the roster. i know we need some reserve players in the wings so to speak but the players that are waiting on the bench need to be ready and need to bring experience and enthusiasm to the game when they come in. sergio, channing, michael ruffin, all should really go. also im not excluding getting rid of travis although i have been an outspoken and sometimes agressive defender of travis. his game just isnt comming around. he still has times when he just looks like he’s somewhere else and dosent really know where to go and what to do. love travis to death but its apparant that after multiple seasons that he still rarely has a clue.
i will say this though that this season has been a wonderful ride and i for one am very excited about the future of this team and for the potential that has not yet been realized. now we have time to reflect and then act agressivly. KP will and does know what to do and what he needs for this team and i expect to see some blockbuster deals in the off season.
thanks dwight for all your objective views this season and throughout the years. after all you and john canzano still have the guts to say the things that a lot of fans don’t want to hear but need to be said.
All right, I’ve heard enough arguments about lack-of-talent to feel the need to point out a few things. This team is undoubtedly loaded with talent, because:
1. If you compare wins produced statistics, you will find that six Blazers are above average players (Roy, Przybilla, Blake, Fernandez, Oden, Batum). Feel free to use any other statistical model (PER, etc.) and you will still find that this roster has a LOT of talent.
2. If they were not talented, they would not win 54 games.
3. The task of making all this talent work together falls on the coach.
So, unless you have a meaningful way to compare players across teams (which various statistical methods provide – e.g. WP48, PER, etc.), stop making general statements about lack of talent on this team.
This is great commentary. Spot on about Roy and I think nearly as frustrating is LA’s tendency to receive the ball and hold it, allowing the defender to get up on him. And more often than not he turns into the lane, where there are myriad defenders. I can’t count the times I’ve seen the baseline open and screamed for a quick, decisive spin move AWAY from the lane, but TO THE BASELINE, not just simply a turnaround jumper.
Roy could learn something from Fernandez about working without the ball. It would also save some of the wear and tear on his body.
And the only way for Greg Oden to develop is to put him in positions where he can do something. feed him cutting to the basket. Roy is often in a perfect position for this. I know he missed that dunk last night, but how much do you want to bet that part of the problem is that he he’s rarely in that position. “holy crap, I’ve got the ball!!” is hardly what you want on your mind when you’re driving to the basket.
I’m always a little uncomfortable when people say Portland’s offense is a good one… the results have been good more often than not this regular season, but where are the PLAYS? I don’t really get it.
So we have all identified some flaws with this team and we recognize where the improvement needs to come over the summer and next year. Several people have asked the question: “Why didn’t McMillan try to get more touches for Oden in the regular season? or other things that weren’t really developed. So here’s a thought:
The goal this year, going back to training camp, was to make the playoffs. And possibly, if the Blazers had not gotten to the playoffs Nate would have been looking for a new job. I suspect then, that everything this year was about achieving that goal, at the expense of developing players, playoff rotations, etc. I do agree with KP for not making a trade at the deadline this year and going with the team. Think about this. Roy is the MAN. No question. And just like MJ, Roy had to learn and experience getting his team into the playoffs. If a trade had been made, that changes. Would Carter have accepted the role of 2nd fiddle to Roy. Not a chance. So Roy has no been through the wars, gotten his team to the playoffs, and figured out what it takes. He will be better next year because of it. We also got to see what LaMarcus can do (and I’m encouraged) and Outlaw (boy did we see his flaws) and others.
Now begins the process of building and developing the team, not to make the playoffs, but to win in the playoffs. I think we can now begin to experiment with lineups in the regular season, develop Greg, and try to fill the holes.
I have watched almost all their games for the last 7-8 years. I moved to Washington DC three years ago and had to give up my tickets, but I watch every game still, and I’m thrilled with this new team. I’ll take these guys over Rasheed/Bonzi and the rest of the knuckleheads that we used to have. I’m disapointed that they didn’t win a series and I realize there’s lots of work to do, but I do think they are on the right track.
Enjoy the honesty.
Dwight,
Great analysis. I think the Blazers went down in heap because of their offensive philosophy and their lack of play at the point guard position.
The NBA is a guard league. Very few teams have the monster center. Look at whose left in the playoffs. They either have an all-world player, Kobe, LeBron, or they have great guard play.
Blake and Sergio are nice backup point guards. They need somebody who is either going to distribute the ball and run plays or somebody who can score in droves. Is anybody in the league scared of the Blazers point guards?
The Blazers have to do something with Greg Oden. He needs to improve and they need to run plays for him. The way the Blazers are using him now, you might as well trade him and get something, like a top notch point guard.
It’s frustrating to watch all that talent fizzle.
Why such a slow and controlled offense that is easy to defend?
Nate is a CONTROL FREAK! He couldn’t stand a team that pushed the ball and had a lot of movement. This would require letting the team control their own destiny. And crap, make some turnovers!
That is why dull, dull Steve Blake was a favorite. That is why Roy had the ball all the time. That is why Aldridge could hold the ball and watch paint dry before making a move.
That is why Bayless hardly ever played (oh crap a rookie might make a mistake!) That is why Oden got pulled as soon as he made a foul.
That is why Portland probably ran out of timeouts more than any other team at the end of games.
Can a control freak change his colors? I’m not holding my breath.
“If you compare wins produced statistics”
this is not a measure of talent, mmm, but I’ll address your post anyway, because you throw out a player that perfectly illustrates my point. Nicholas Batum has potential – note the difference here – potential vs. talent. Talent in my view is what you can attribute to a player if they live up to the potential people assign to them. I look at Batum’s PER and I see a below average small forward. Wins can be attributed to a lot of things, great defense, good team play, a team that takes care of the ball, etc. All of these things can also be attributed to coaching or the system a team runs (I’m not making any specific statement about the Blazers here, I’m addressing the concept in a general sense.) Oden has potential, but until he learns how to stay out of foul trouble, his per 40 or per 48 minute stats are almost meaningless. As far as Outlaw goes, he’s a streaky scorer, which isn’t necessarily bad, but when you need a reliable third option, he’s not that. That to me speaks to the lack of talent there. For a small forward/power forward, he’s a horrid rebounder. He’s basically made his name by becoming a jump shooter who has admittedly worked very hard at improving his shot. After 6 years and a terrible playoff showing, however, I think he’s overrated relative to the accolades he’s received. I don’t think that’s unfair, I think it’s just the way it is. I’m willing to cut the rookies some slack, because they still have the opportunity to show more, but Outlaw – uh uh. He’s had a chance, we need to upgrade.
I don’t think Nate is purposely throttling the offense, I think the players just don’t respond to his exhortations to push it up the court. Part of this is Roy – he likes the slower, controlled pace that lets him set up for isolations. I think you see a lot more transition offense when Sergio comes in the game because unlike Blake, he actually does most of the ball handling when he’s in there and he likes pushing it. That said, Sergio pounds the ball too much and couldn’t guard against a condition. My main point is, I don’t think Nate is the real problem here. Besides, Houston just whupped us good, and they’re not a transition team. San Antonio wasn’t a transition team. Good teams run when they can, and this team has to learn to do more of that, but that’s on the players first. You constantly hear Nate on the sidelines telling them to push it and not walk the ball up the court.
The other upsides is that it will be much easier to dump the stiffs now that they’ve outed themselves.
Their starting PG and 6th man have clearly hit their physical and mental ceilings, for example.
Cheers to keeping on one subjuect…….
Fitting to start the off-season, (Jesus I hate to say that) analysis with Brandon Roy. More than Nate, the role players, coaches or anything else, this team begins and ends with Roy.
More than trusting his team-mates or driving with his head up is the fact this team needs to move without the ball; it’s terrible to watch Roy or Aldridge go 1 on 3 while half the team stands around.
LA gets the ball in the post, then the double comes and instead of passing to someone slashing to the basket, or a team mate opening up on the perimeter for an open shot or re-post, he’s forced to dribble backwards and take a jump shot.
Roy doesn’t lift his head when driving because 1.he’s about to get it decapitated and 2.Joel & GO can’t catch very well…
The best way to add to the offense (assuming we don’t add players, which we will) is for B-Roy to work all season on his own post game. The way he finishes around the basket, strength, subtle head fakes and spins; Roy could really be Jordan-like in the post. His head would be able to stay up when double teams arived, and he might not spend half the game laying on the court. Hopefully it’s the next step in his game because he looked eerily like Dwayne Wade in the playoffs and if it continues his body will be shattered and worthless in 4 more years.
Dwight – spot on as usual! Sure there are player personnel tweaks to be made but those are hard to decifer when the MAIN PROBLEM IS SYSTEMIC! Without a good system it is really hard to know how good some of the Blazers can be. So I will say it straight out – Let’s start with a NEW Coach. I like Nate personally and think perhaps he is the right coach to get a team from being a “D” to a “B” but I do not think he is the one to make them an “A”. In my opionion he is now the one holding the team back.
So many good comments for this article have been made – I particularly like Ralphzilla’s comments.
PS. On Talkin Ball – Kersey needs to talk less.
James,
Your definition of talent vs. potential is spot on. But please do note that Batum already has realized some of that potential as evidenced by his WP48 of 0.116 (note that 0.1 is average, so Batum is above average). Now, does he have potential to increase that number, certainly, but that does not mean that he is not producing today.
Your take on Outlaw is also completely accurate, and that is directly reflected in his WP48 = 0.043 (i.e. he is way below average).
Also, I’m not sure what you mean by “this is not a measure of talent”. If production is not a measure of talent, then what is? Again, what I’m looking for is a standard objective way to compare player performance. So subjective general observations are not a good comparative metric.
Cheers,
mmm
In a team of jump shooters one thing stands out, a center that cannot make a jump shot. The Portland centers need to develop some sort of threat outside so that LMA can have room inside. Greg needs to be available to create offense from 15′ in. That is what makes the great ones, minus Shaq of course, so effective. It will also help to unclog the middle. One of the problems at the small forward has been the offensive philosophy of go stand in the corner and we will pass to you for a threeball. There is no cohesive offensive game that involves all five players. I agree with one of the posters above who said that the Blazers need a SF who can handle and distribute, as well as shoot the deep ball. That may be Martell, only time will tell. They need help at the PG position. Blake is a good steady player, but not a jet. Anyone high on Brooks don’t take your eyes off him against LA. We can then tell if he is starting to emerge or took advantage of the Blazers. Sergio cannot guard his own shadow, so is not the answer and Bayless is drive first and second. A lot of decisions to be made in the offseason. Let us not lose track that with all the “horrible flaws” this team has(d) they still won 54 games and made us proud of them as young men.
I’m a broken record but I’ll say it again, it all comes down to lack of a real PG. The ball is in Roy’s hands late because he is the only one who can create offense. Get a real PG and that problem is solved.
Look at how Denver has turned around by adding Billups, last year and before the trade this year they were battling for 8th vs 9th seed.
let’s start with Oden. Definitely get him some physical and mental coaching. Personally I’d put him on “uppers”. He makes me depressed. Get the team to run. They have several players who play best on the move. What’s youth for anyway. Other than Oden, they don’t have a power player. Most of them are touted as excellent at getting up and down the court. Rudy’s game is stifled as he has been utilized. He doesn’t seem to shoot well when on the move away from the basket but he can develope that and he adds so much when he is moving and creating assists or lay ins. Much more than a 3 point shooter. I hate to bad mouth Blake. He is solid in many ways. Sergio has some of abilities that Blake doesn’t but probably to many liabilities to start. Bayless is 2-3 years away IF (big if) he does develope into a point guard. So they need a point guard who can and will and be allowed to run the fast break. They could use another muscle guy inside. And also a midsized defensive player who can defend high scoring shooting guards and small forwards. Having said all that, don’t trade away players you have unless you have a better player to replace him (them). All that said, I’d rather have a team that struggles with players I like and respect than one that wins with losers. One question. Don’t the blazers teach their players to follow their shots? Lots of standing and watching.
I’ll dispute one thing you said. Roy does not have the ball more then Jordan, and it’s not that close.
So far to this point in his career, Roy’s Usage Rate is 25.4%.
From 1985 thru 1998, Michael Jordan’s Usage Rate was 33.5%
That’s a significant difference
I remember when you said that Houston would be our most favored matchup in the playoffs…do you still feel that way now?
You’re right on Dwight! Maybe you should coach the Blazers?
Nate much go…Outlaw should have been gone a few years ago…Oden needs some work this summer and so does Brandon.
This team blew it at the trade deadline! They should have went out and got a 3. This whole thing is very disapointing. Like Herm Edwards says “you play the games to win!” What’s worse? Teams like this have a “window” to win. Normaly you get 2 or 3 shots at it…Blazers just used one!
And I hope Kimberlee is your daughter, she’s way too hot to be your wife!
Yeah, Roy did have the ball in his hands a great deal of the time. And yes, he didn’t look to pass the ball that much. However, I can’t fault him for not trusting his teammates because I wouldn’t trust them either.
I would say Jordan learned to trust his teammates when he got more talented ones. It isn’t a real stretch to trust the likes of Pippen, Tony K, Steve Kerr, Paxon, Hodges and the like. Kobe learned to trust his teammates because they are Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, Derrick Fisher, Ariza and Bynum.
If Portland can give Roy similar teammates I think he will pass the ball more. How it happens is certainly up for debate.
Very enjoyable season.
The roster is 2, maybe 3 people from being complete. In hindsight it would have been interesting to see what they could have done if they had made some deal at the trading deadline, eg, Gerald Wallace or Mike Conley. With Kevin Pritchard behind the wheel, one has to assume that something will happen.
The lack of diversity in the offense is a real problem, too. I think this year, that was all Nate wanted to put in for them to learn and succeed at. Next year we’ll see the wrinkles go in.
A great place to be.
Thanks Dwight for your incisive commentary. I look forward to your next installment. – Elgin
DJ – Nice work. I look forward to your next pieces.
I’ll try to keep my mouth shut (for now) about how TO epitomizes the Blazers’ problems.
Just one question about last night.
Why oh why did Nate leave the subs in so long in the 2nd? They were getting out hustled, outplayed, and were ice cold. after it got to 8-0 where is the time out to get some players would could score and play out there. This was win or go home. Screw your “rotation” and at least try a little. by the time Nate got the picture and a 16-0 run it was too late.
Great Season. Lets see what KP and crew do now.
“3. The task of making all this talent work together falls on the coach.
So, unless you have a meaningful way to compare players across teams (which various statistical methods provide – e.g. WP48, PER, etc.), stop making general statements about lack of talent on this team”
Unless you have a meaningful way to express which coaching changes should be made to make thie current roster into an NBA champion, I suggest you “tell your statistics to shut up” (ref: “Ball Four” by Jim Bouton)
All of those scouts that Dwight likes to mention, as well as NBA players, coaches, front office personnel and media members will tell you that Nate McMillian is one of the best coaches in the league. It doesn’t matter to me what Dwight and mmm’s opinion on his coaching skills are, because I already know (without asking Kevin Pritchard or Paul Allen) that Nate is going nowhere, unless he asks out of Portland.
So, how can McMillian tweak the offense to get more production with less jump shots? Clearly Greg Oden has to be a large part of this answer. A veteran point guard who can penetrate (and be a threat to score at the basket or draw a foul) then dish the ball to Greg, Joel or another big man would help take a lot of the offensive load off of Roy. (A similar player at the small forward position is also a possibility, I suppose)
I don’t expect McMillian to install a brand new offense, unless the change is mandated from the front office (which would probably include hiring a new assistant coach who is an offensive “guru”) This is extremely unlikely; KP tends to be “hand’s off” where coaching decisions are concerned. Nate has his staff “in place” and it would take a catastrophic failure to uproot coaches like Williams, Demopolis, etc in favor of new faces with innovative ideas. I suspect the front office will see the 2008-09 season as a “success” and look to tweak the roster, instead. Adding a big man’s coach (like Clifford Ray) to work with Oden is the most-likely scenario
God Dwight, you are so damn right every time. I only read the first couple paragraphs and had to write how much I agree with you. I dont think the “rah rah…this team did great.” B.S. is good for anybody except losers.
That sort of attitude certainly won’t help us become the #1 team in the NBA. We have got to fiercely go after every single little thing that can make us a better team.
We cannot have the attitude that “these guys just need more time to mature.” We have to be active about making the team better.
Not saying we have to overhaul everything. In the NBA, even small changes can make HUGE impacts. #1 offseason priority: Oden needs a hall of fame type mentor.
Rick Adelman sure looks like a good coach making Von Wafer and Shane Battier effective weapons is crazy! It’s embaressing to me to watch Portland’s junior high school offense when we have so much versatile talent and potential, I’m sure KP must get frustrated too.
Next year I think Nate’s gonna need to really make some adjustments and I don’t see him getting a new contract if we’re not able to make Oden a more effective weapon and pick up the pace a little bit.
Roy is great, but he’s not good pushing the ball. In a PG we need someone who can push the ball, instead we have (arguably) the worst PG in the NBA at pushing the ball in Blake.
I put 90% of the blame for this stagnant offense on Blake and Nate, and 10% on Brandon Roy.
The Blazers get the fewest easy baskets of any team in the league. There’s no stat for “Easy Baskets” but they include free throws, lay-ins, put-backs, and dunks. A lot of these buckets come on fast breaks, and the Blazers rarely push the ball. For the youngest team in the league to waste its youth advantage and allow these old guys to walk up and down the court is ridiculous. RUN FOR GOD SAKES. I like Nate as a mentor-type but as far as game strategy he’s horrible. And clearly nobody is developing the big guys. Let’s just hope everybody doesn’t homer up over the summer and we can make some decisions with our eyes wide open.
Dwight,
I owe you a bit of an apology.
I’ve been a blazer fan since birth, and was living in Seattle
when Portland had opened a new chapter after the jail blazer era.
From afar it seemed like your editorial pieces were intended to just be controversial. Now that I live in Portland again, and read the papers regularly, I now realize that role belongs Canzano!
Seriously, I agree with most every thing you have written in your blogs the past year. I hope KP is the genius everyone makes him out to be, and he has a master plan. I’m not sure I can deal with another good blazer team that gets crushed by the Lakers for the next 5 years.
You are right! We need all pespectives.
Oden………very GREEN! Green enough to be embarassing at times……oh my!
We have to have a real serious conversation in the off season of what are we going to do with Travis Outlaw. I say bye bye…….Sergio BYE BYE…….Bayless has a lot of work ahead of him in the off season to clean the bird crap of his bottom lip for pouting the last part of the season. Public POUTING at his age! That will not help him.
I like his spirit!
I much prefer a ball movement/player movement offense. I think Nate and Brandon much prefer the slow pace, clear-out iso offense.
Starting/playing Rudy 41 minutes doesn’t help if one doesn’t take advantage of what he brings to the game, i.e., MOVEMENT.
The only way Nate will change his approach is if the players he relies on aren’t here. Last year it was Jarrett Jack; the year before Z-Bo. The future of the Blazers is Brandon Roy and that future is a plodding, iso-dominated offense.
Granted, Roy is one of the premier players in the league, but he/we could be so much better if there was more movement without the ball.
Anyone else remember the plays where Rudy fed Brandon for monster dunks? In particular, there was an out-of-bounds play under the basket and another where Brandon broke to the rim from the foul line where Rudy simply nodded; Roy took off and dunked off the Rudy pass.
Rudy plays a lot better when Sergio is in the game because Sergio is always looking to pass and rewards the player who moves. Likewise, Rudy has had some great passes to LaMarcus and Oden (and will pass to Pryzbilla), but if Roy has the ball it is rare that motion is rewarded (although both Blake and Outlaw are rewarded for sticking to a spot).
Since Roy, Aldridge, and Oden are our “untouchables,” I’m not sure we’re going to see any different style in the near future. Good news for those who like slow, relatively mistake free games; bad new for those of us who like movement offenses.
I think we have the horses to run, but I don’t see it happening.
I am not sure Steve Blake can play another style of basketball. He’s 29 and is not going to get any faster on offense or defense, the light switch to be a playmaker is not going, to all of a sudden, turn on.
Before I take heat for saying he may be expendable, yes he’s turned into a very serviceable player and excellent three point shooter.
But next year, assuming Martell comes back healthy, your adding between 120-140 made three point shots into the mix. This offsets one of Blake’s main assets. Nobody can argue he’s a great guy and leader off the court, but on the court? Kyle Lowry, a guy I had never really heard of, just manhandled Blake. Remember the spacing with James Jones and Martell?
That’s the biggest issue facing the Blazers. Pritchard and Nate have to decide if they want to play more uptempo or post-upmore, and be less Roy-centric (1-on-5). The uptempo duo of Bayless and Sergio (20 and 22 years old) would be a good combo you could live with, assuming Martell is healed and ready to be an assassin with his 3’s.
Last, Nate has lots of flaws but one strength nobody has mentioned is that even if Nate has player who are very upset at him or his style, well they DO NOT DARE cross Nate, at least not in public. At some level, not all coaches have that level of respect of NBA players. They may love Nate, they may hate Nate, they may fear Nate but the players and fans respect him. Nobody, not even fans dares to heckle him to his face or behind his bench, his looks can kill, his size doesn’t hurt either, he commands respect.
Dunleavy was brilliant but the players lost his respect for whatever reason. That’s why when Sheed threw a towel at Sabonis in the middle of a timeout during a rivalry game, Dunleavy had no clue how to fix that, the locker was shot. Cheeks was a joke. Everybody stepped all over him.
People should be careful what they wish for when say, replace Nate, we could become Clipps, Warriors, Kings-north, tons of young talent and a revolving door, chaotic locker.
Too much hype for middle of the seasons games. Too little attention to details. They put too much on beating Boston or LA during the season (really, it’s one game who cares) and they prove they can’t take real heat.
-M
Sam — you’ve confused “usage rate” with “having the ball.” One has to do with production, the other has to do with lack of same.
– Dwight
I disagree about the pace having to change. SA, Detroit and others have won rings with a slow pace. You do, however, have to go inside if you play that way.
These Blazers overacheived and were in over their collective heads. It showed. Only BRoy and LMA were ready for this level of competition. Everyone else was a no-show.
Roy will eventually trust others more… but not until one of them steps up and deserves it.
I agree completely and this was a rude wake-up call for this team that their style of play is not condusive for the playoffs.
When TNT or ESPN show run their “wired” segments, I noticed a few times that Nate is practically begging them to get the ball inside first and then work outside. I think their style has more to do with types of players rather than the coach.
That being said, their system practically demands that Roy have the ball in his hands the whole game because of Blake’s inability to create off the dribble. They need a guy there who will either a.) push the ball on the break or b.)create something easy off the dribble for either himself or his teammates. Either way, Portland needs to figure out a way to get some easy baskets. Blake is nice, just not as a starter.
I predict portland in 5
Interesting points about Roy, Dwight.
I’d never really seen him in that light. If he were a Point Guard with the same traits, I think I probably wouldn’t be much a fan of his at all (Iverson? uck.) But as a shooting guard, I think you’re right that a lot of the downsides to his game have been overlooked.
You’re probably right about most all of what you wrote in this particular post (but let’s remember not ALWAYS right…specifically recently thinking of the Kent sitch, as well as, erm,…the result of this series…) There probably all those and other issues that the blazers need to address. They probably will get addressed, and the blazers probably will address many of them in one way or another. We should all be able to safely step back from the ledge a bit.
What nobody has mentioned is that Nate is not an experienced enough coach for the playoffs as well – that much is obvious. His match-ups are sometimes the result of panic rather than strategy. Roy nailed it after the first game of the playoffs when he said it felt like the first game against the Lakers. That’s what this series felt like. Panic adjustments. Rudy shouldn’t have played those many minutes in the 6th game – he doesn’t have the stamina. And, I’m not sure why he didn’t play Batum enough on key Houston bench scorers like Von Wafer. Yeah, Batum wasn’t playoff starter material… that’s fine. But, Batum could have been used to shut down Landry or Wafer. Instead, he played starters too many minutes and they looked tired at the end… especially in key games 3 and 4. Only Rudy, who was sitting on the pine in those games – came in firing big time 3’s. But, as soon as he played Rudy big minutes – you saw Rudy play horribly out of sync. And, Greg… why is he still picking up ticky tacky fouls? Is nobody working with him on how to defend by putting his hands in someone’s face without touching them? And, finally, Outlaw… yeah he had a terrible series (except in game 4 when it looked like he was starting to gel again). He was the key to why the Blazers were sputtering off the bench. For TO’s defense – Battier is not a prolific scorer – you just need to put a hand in his face when he shoots a 3. And, on offense, Outlaw should be quicker and more athletic… taking Battier to the hole. Instead, Outlaw had the playoff rookie “deer in the headlights” look. That’s why he’ll be back in Mississippi with his fishing buddies.
Quote: “Rick Adelman sure looks like a good coach making Von Wafer and Shane Battier effective weapons is crazy! It’s embaressing to me to watch Portland’s junior high school offense when we have so much versatile talent and potential, I’m sure KP must get frustrated too.”
I totally disagree that “we have so much versatile talent”
One of the problem in our roster is that, outside Roy, we have too many one-dimensional (or at least not all-around enough) offensive players. Let’s take a look:
Blake: outside shooter with ZERO penetrating skills.
Outlaw: no penetrating & low-post skills. only effective weapon is outside shooting.
Rudy: good shooting. can drive a little better than Blake does but lack the strength to do any real damage.
Sergio: only good at passing, ZERO shooting and penetrating.
Batum: has potential for being versatile, but too raw to make an impact offensively now.
Przybilla: never an offensive talent and shouldn’t even be in this discussion.
Oden: has potential to provide inside scoring and improve the verstaility in our offense but was impossible to happen so quickly in his first season given all the circumstances – being a rookie, foul trouble, injury, and being out-of-shape.
Frye: need I say more?
Aldridge: should be the 2nd versatile guy in our team. but as can be seen from the Houston series – as long as you can push him out of his comfort zone in low post, he will be reduced to strict mid-range shooter.
I definitely think our system has some area that needs to be improved, but sometimes it’s limited by the personnel.
Yes Adelman is a good coach. However, as we’ve seen many times this series, a lot of times even he has trouble having Brooks and Artest under control.
By the way, it’s not that hard to make Battier an effective weapon. He’s an extremely one-dimensional offensive player (68% of his shot is 3pt) Adelman is not using him in a smarter way than McMillan would have been.