Subscribe Feed (RSS)The Trail Blazers are now, as you’ve noticed, starting two point guards. I’ve waited for a couple of days for the media to analyze this in a realistic way or at least comment on it — but so far, nothing.
Apparently, they subscribe to the philosophy that as long as Portland is winning games, it’s a great move. But I don’t think you can be that pragmatic about it. Sure, Portland whipped the Spurs Friday — on their second night of back-to-backs, with Tony Parker out a good part of the game, with the Spurs — shooting consistently open threes — not making many from long distance.
In the long run, that lineup — with Steve Blake basically turned into an off-guard, Andre Miller at the point and Brandon Roy at small forward — is wrong on so many fronts I have to list them all:
– The change means the team is now worse defensively at three positions than it was previously. Blake can’t defend point guards as well as Miller does. Miller can’t defend off-guards as well as Roy does. And Roy certainly can’t defend small forwards as well as Martell Webster does.
– The switch also came with a new rotation player, Jerryd Bayless. I know a lot of you want to see Bayless on the floor, but did you want it at the expense of Rudy Fernandez? Yes, I know that Rudy has gotten off to a rough start, so what? We all know how good he is, and it’s just a matter of time before he shows it.
– Do you really want 38 minutes a night from Steve Blake? He played more minutes than anyone else Friday night.
– Last season one of Portland’s biggest strengths was its rebounding. There is no way, playing that small lineup, the Blazers will rebound as well as as they did last season.
– Martell Webster, one could argue, has given the most consistent effort of any of the Blazer players this season. Do you want to slice his minutes down even more?
Here are a couple of things I believe to be true:
– In the near term, given the team’s schedule, this move will look fine. I mean, we could start Ben Golliver at the off-guard tonight against Minnesota and be fine. And the schedule looks pretty easy over the next couple of weeks, all in all.
– In the long term, to beat the Lakers, Portland will need a bigger lineup, rather than a smaller one. The Lakers are LONG. I’m not sure San Antonio is big enough to mess with them.
I believe this is some sort of transitional lineup — a way to ease into putting Blake on the bench. Well, OK, but if that’s the case, the team would be better off going to it right away, to get the bugs out of it.
A lot of people will dismiss this post as the rantings of a grouchy old cynic. But the deal is, the whole idea of this season is to IMPROVE. Get better — not win 54 games again. Portland should be thinking about what it needs to do to beat the Lakers, the Mavericks and the Nuggets.
And really, this new lineup is not going to accomplish that.
I don’t think it’s a great long-term solution but i’m just glad Nate did SOMETHING somewhat unconventional.
I think this is A starting lineup, not THE starting lineup.
Games/teams that it’ll work against, it’s great… it’s unconventional, it gives a great chance for fast starts against weaker/undersized lineups; it makes opposing coaches (read: Popovich) play out of their comfort zones and start the games in fashions they might not be used to.
Other bigger (better) teams require simply another starting unit. Slide Blake to the bench in those games, and start Miller, Roy, Oden, Aldridge and Webber (the “traditional” lineup.
I’m just glad that the coaching staff are finally thinking outside their repetitive formulaic way of thinking they’ve been stuck in the last two years.
I agree with one of your last points, that this is a way to transition Blake to the bench. Why McMillan doesn’t do it right away, I’m not sure, but Portland has two games in a row now where Miller has outplayed Blake, and Webster seems a bit off since going to the bench.
Dwight you are a Grouchy old cynic. Hell, we all already knew that. Fact is I may be one myself. I have been on Nate since the end of the playoffs. To me this is not a long term solution. To me this is the result of the reality that we have a head coach who is afraid or unable to make any of the hard decisions. However; as one post already mentioned. I will second the fact that I am at least pleased Nate did SOMETHING! It has worked to change the pace of the game. Yea, yea, go ahead and say the Spurs were wounded, the Wolves just stink and OK. I get that. I also have eyes. It has changed the pace of the team. It has created more motion on offense. The overall energy is up. True that Blake is going to get creamed by say Kobe? Ha, ha, anyone think Blake is going to handle Kobe in that of guard match up? So I would agree with you that Nate is doing some sort of a back door move that will result in Blake, or Miller going back to the bench. Nate is still Nate tho ya’ll. I wouldn’t automatically assume that Blake will be the one moved to the bench. Right now I am rolling with it. Right now I am just enjoying the way, the style, the pace, the energy the team is playing with. Hells Bells Roy is even throwing out let passes. Never thought I’d see that!
Seems to me if Nate is serious about this line up. If the point is to create energy and motion. Flow as Nate calls it. He should also try inserting Rudy instead of Blake. Motion and flow would improve even more. When Rudy gets his shot on the shooting will be there at the 2 spot. The defense? Maybe no better. Certainly no worse.
yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaawn. Winning sucks. If we keep this up Dwight might, just MIGHT, have to say something positive. Nah.
Great, we have our own version of Don Nelson and his stupid lineups. I guess Nate forgot that Nellie has never won a championship. We should just make Brandon the point guard with Rudy, Martell, Greg and Lamarcus as the starters. And since Nate can’t decide who should play, we just play Bayless and leave Andre and Steve on the bench.
Nate playing the role of Nellie? That is funny dude. Look at it this way. Maybe all us cynics have Nate pegged all wrong. Maybe Nate is an un-common genius. Lord knows many people who are suppose to have basketball brains will tell you that Nate is the Great coach. Look at it from this angle. Maybe this is Nate’s ingenious way of appeasing Roy. Roy who has been so rigid against any sorta change to what he believes is “his ROYal highness’s team”. Maybe this is Nate’s way of getting Roy to see that he can too play with Miller. That he can too survive without the constant presence of Blake to feed his need. Maybe it is Nate’s way of easing Roy into the belief that running and out let passing for easy baskets is going to bring many positives (wins) for the team. Maybe this is Nate’s way of easing the ball out of Roy’s hands and slow mo ball pounding pace to get the All-Star to the realization that there is more than one way to rock!
I’m still scratching my head with this new lineup. Even if you have Blake continue to play defense against the other teams PG, he still has the other team’s best player (typically) guarding him. Don’t you want to make that player work a little bit? What is it that McMillan sees in Outlaw that the rest of us don’t? McMillan always stresses that he wants guys to play hard – well, no one on this team seems to be playing harder than Webster, yet McMillan continues to play Travis over Webster.
This has needed to be said since McMillan came out and said he’s starting the 3rd best SG in the league at the 3, and he’s starting a guy who can barely guard PGs at the 2! This is ridiculous. If you’re going to go with 3 guards, why not start Rudy? His passing is just as good if not better than Blake’s, and he can actually drive to the whole and dish where Blake just drives then dribbles around and out. Nate is such garbage as a coach it’s ridiculous. All these idiots who think this move is genius are ignorant. What we have here is a coach who is trying to save his job. He sucks, he lets Brandon do whatever he wants, which is why Blake won’t sit. I’m over it. This team is garbage until we get rid of Nate, end of story!
2-0
I agree with BlazerDawg. This is just ridiculous crap.
Well, I thought it was crazy at first too, but now I have to say I think it’s great. And, the main reason isn’t just because we’re winning; the real reason I love this change is because For the first time in Nate’s coaching career he’s actually allowed a point guard to call the plays.
For the first time in his Blazer career, he’s had one capable.
No disrespect to Blake (or Sergio, or Telfair, or Jack, or Bayless, or Juan Dixon), but other than Miller, which better-than-average points have graced the Portland roster?
What’s weird is that this was so much fun,I didn’t even notice Brandon only scored 2 points til it was over.
I thought it was a misprint at first !
I don’t know enough to know if Nate’s taking this in a good direction. My fantasy would be to see how someone like Adleman would work with this team, with his record of finding strengths and minimizing weaknesses.
Well…Adelman used the 3 guard lineup a lot back in the early 90’s, and had a lot of success with it for the same up-tempo reasons we are having now…so, there you go.
8 man please Nate, please.
Miller 1 Roy 1+2+3 Webster 3 Aldridge 4+5 Oden 5
Fernandez 1+2+3 Travis 3+4 Pryzbilla 5
Blake –> 3 point role player only
Bayless –> Scrappy guard role player
Batum –> instead of Travis asap
Let’s wait until January/February to boil this down – its a long season. This team will be remembered for what it does in the Playoffs, not for its starting line-up or rotation in November.
I fully expect to see Nate bounce between Webster and Fernandez in the starting line-up (in place of Blake) depending on match-ups in the 3-4 weeks. But right now, like Linus, Nate has a security blanket – Steve Blake.
Webster – defensive stopper? Hell, Carmelo Antony only had 41 on us. (nice against durant though)
Travis over Webster – Maybe cause he is a much better shooter 45% to 38% from three, and averages 12.9 pts to 8.0 in less minutes a game.
I dont understand the obsession with Rudy. He is only shooting 27% from three and is a complete defensive liability. He is a “show” passer, meaning if he has a choice between throwing a lob and a behind the back through the legs pass, well you know what he would choose. Explains why he averages 2 assists to 1.4 turnovers.
Yeah, but that 41 points was in spite of Webster’s aggressive and energetic defense. Carmelo just had a career night. Remember that Roy dropped 41 on Artest and Battier, two of the league’s best defenders.
I’m not going to disagree with the shooting percentages, but I’m not sure where you got Travis playing 8 minutes less per game. Their minutes are pretty even so far this year. He still perpetually looks lost on defense and still hasn’t seen a rebound that he likes unless it comes straight to him. The fact that Martell actually plays defense and doesn’t HAVE to get shots to be involved should be reason enough to give him more minutes.
I might have read the 8 minutes less per game wrong…
Durant had a career night too……….a career bad night!
I expect the scouting to catch up shortly. But Nate has a history of falling in love with small ball so I think it will last well past the usefulness.
Dwight, the reason why this concerns me is that we’re learning two things: Roy’s game isn’t compatible with a lot of other players and 2) the sum of Blazer’s parts are greater than the whole.
Kind of a crummy place to be in if you ask me, especially since Portland just signed essentially two max contracts.
Good point. I totally agree, and Mike Rice (whom I like) kept saying that once teams slow down the blazers offense he’ll be able to take over. Really? How about Roy learn to play off screens, hit the boards hard and try and impact the game in other ways.
“grouchy old cynic”? Aw come on Dwight, don’t be so hard on yourself. You’re not that old!
I just can’t see taking one of the best off guards in the league, as well as just one of the best players in the league period, and turning him into a small forward. His skills are not suited for that position. I think that the upper ten teams in the league, with their size a skill level, will just simply cream this lineup. I can just see teams like Boston, Phoenix, Miami and the Lakers eagerly awaiting to play Portland on the road or at home.
All this lineup does is piss off Rudy. If Nate is gonna go 3 guards, he needs to have our best 3 out there (Roy, Rudy, and Miller). Have Bayless play with Blake off of the bench
It’s time to move Rudy up to starter minutes
Wouldn’t that entail him playing decent? He’s been sucking it up, shooting 38%. It’s out of character, but nonetheless…
Blake’s play has improved over the last couple and he’s shooting 40% from deep compared to Rudy’s 26%.
To be fair, Fernandez has not been given the consistent minutes that he has been promised. Blake has had the minutes despite a horrid preseason and was slumping until he played alongside Miller.
The bottom line is Rudy is the type of player who can help you win a ring. Keeping him on the bench and limiting his minutes when he can start for most NBA teams in favor of a journeyman at best in Blake is crazy.
Plus I think the Blake/Bayless combo off of the bench could work well for us
I’m waiting and seeing. Not because I only have eyes for Nate, but because it’s working.
I do trust professional estimates of Nate’s ability over anonymous people who post in blogs; however, sometimes even fools like us are right–right?
I think Nate will be able to recognize matchups that don’t work–didn’t he say he was going to continue this lineup for the next several games to evaluate it? I didn’t hear him say this is the lineup he’s taking to the playoffs. I’m waiting and seeing and in the meantime I’m going to enjoy watching this team run–finally.
I’m kind of surprised, and also in a way not surprised, that Nate’s gone to this lineup. I confess that from last year, I drank some “Steve Blake is solid” Kool-Aid. I was hoping that he’d have been like a John Paxson/Steve Kerr, with B-Roy playing LIKE Jordan (relatively speaking). But, there is no question that Andre Miller is the best point guard, and needs to be playing major minutes, and in the starting lineup. I agree with those who think that Martell deserves a chance to start at 3, deserves more touches, and especially those who say that we’re really missing Batum. At least we’ll appreciate Batum more, once he returns healthy.
Rediculous does seem a bit harsh. It snapped the team out of a slogging, losing streak of sorts. It’s won a couple games, and in doing so Roy is getting playing time with Miller. Miller is starting and running the offense instead of being directed from the bench. For the size and speed of our last two opponents it’s worked for us, and might work for a few of the upcoming opponents as well.
It seemed to me this team needed ANY kind of positive change. No one is claiming this to be ‘YOUR 2009 BLAZER STARTING LINEUP’, so to criticize it as such seems a little ‘get off my lawn’-ish.
Well put.
I, for one, would hold Saint Brandon accountable for his poor play so far this season. I didn’t think he’d be the type of player who would go in the tank after signing his huge contract, but so far I’m not convinced that this won’t be a repeat of the Darius Miles mess.
The starting lineup should be:
Miller, Fernandez, Webster, Aldridge, Przybilla.
Brandon Roy should come off the bench.
Bahahaha! Thanks for making me laugh. I knew there was a reason to read these comments.
I like this lineup only because it gets Miller in the starting lineup and shows Roy he can play well without dominating the ball.I expect to see variations of the lineup depending on whom we play. Anything to get the tempo up and get more players involved. And if this results in a lot more wins, it will be tough for whining to take place. I am all for a wait and see approach.
Dwight,
You make one post saying the NBA big men have gone the way of the stagecoach also stating that the rules now favor the quick perimeter players. Then you make this post criticizing the 3 guard line-up. Well what is it. Could it be that McMillan is spotting a trend and adjusting? You have Miller that can break you down posting, driving and passing (his 2 point shot is historically good as well) Blake that can break you down shooting and passing, and Roy that can just break you down. Maybe this 3 guard lineup is the perfect Laker beater. The Lakers seem to struggle the most guarding perimeter players. Sure Kobe is close to lockdown but Artest can’t keep up with quick guards. With the 3 gaurd line-up the Lakers huge advantage would be Artest but at the same time don’t you want the Lakers to try and beat you with Artest? Anyway not saying I am right just throwing out the idea.
Hey — the problem is that they can neither rebound nor defend as well with that lineup. And eventually they’re going to have to beat the Lakers in the playoffs — using Brandon Roy to try to guard Odom and Blake or Miller to play Kobe. How will that work? And as far as big men go, Portland’s mission will be to make other teams have to defend their big man, Oden, and not put him in a precarious position at the other end. Things run in cycles. Oden is now one of the only real post-up centers in the league. Make use of it — or what’s the point?
You bring up some good points and I don’t disagree I was more so just saying that it could work in some cases. With Odom at the 3 it would be a bad line-up but with Artest at the 3 I would like the 3 guard look because it makes Artest the scorer and the Blazers can run a little… plus Bynum wouldn’t get back on D. But is having a variety of looks that you can throw out there really a bad thing?
Dwight, I think this is a good post and doesn’t make you a grouchy old cynic….your critics might counter that you neglected to make your usual post following the win over the Spurs. THAT does give them a little fuel!
I think Nate did it just to piss off Dwight – and boy did it work (wink, wink, nudge, nudge, know what I mean, know what I mean)
Steve Blake sure has a lot of leverage in this organization. Holy smokes. How does he get 38 minutes in an NBA game? Only for the Blazers.
Trust me folks. Andre Miller, Rudy, and Webster need those minutes.
One more thing. I was at the game and I know my eyes are not deceiving me (I hope), but Jerryd Bayless was the BEST ATHLETE on the floor for both teams, maybe by a long ways. As in Dwayne Wade level athleticism. How you can bury a supreme athlete like that on the bench, well only the Blazers can have that luxury.
At some point we will trade Bayless and Rudy and we will watch them be heroes in the playoffs for some team in the East. And we’ll have Blake getting 38 minutes a game because he can hit a couple of threes a night playing off Brandon.
And the lineup has worked ridiculously well, at least so far.
There’s an old method of testing ideas, one that Edison perfected, that’s best described as “Throw everything at the wall and see what sticks”.
Maybe this is crazy but I think Nate has these guys starting because they are the guys that know best how to space themselves on the floor both offensively and defensively. They understand the offensive sets and not only know where to be but what the movement is trying to accomplish and how to turn the advantages gained into baskets. Despite being “worse at three positions on defense” this unit understands what Nate wants the team to accomplish on defense as well and is turning defensive stops into transition baskets. There are better defensive line ups, better offensive lineups but I think this is the high basketball IQ line up. They ran the break quite well in terms of reading where the other was filling in and adjusting accordingly and getting the ball into a position to score.