I like Nic Batum a lot. He’s got a great future. But for the Blazers, the future is NOW. Batum has been starting only because it’s Portland’s set lineup. But it’s time for a change because against the Rockets his offense isn’t good enough yet to be of any real help and the people he’s defending — either Ron Artest or Shane Battier — aren’t going to kill you, anyway.

Houston is one of those rare teams that doesn’t have a small forward who scores big. Rudy can handle Battier at the defensive end.

Fernandez is simply too good to be kept on the bench in this situation. It’s a luxury Portland can no longer afford. If there’s one change the Blazers should make in Game 5, it’s to put Rudy in the starting lineup and get him at least 36 minutes. Look at it this way, if Batum doesn’t start, he doesn’t play AT ALL. So why is he starting?

In this series, Rudy’s been Portland’s second-best player but hasn’t had enough playing time to make an impact. Batum was fine in the regular season and against certain teams in the playoffs — guarding Kobe, for instance — he’d be fine. But not now.

It’s Rudy time.

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Tags: Dwight Jaynes, Houston Rockets, NBA playoffs, Nic Batum, Portland Trail Blazers, Rudy Fernandez, Shane Battier

I have a feeling the Trail Blazers — and most of their fan base — could not have chosen a better first-round opponent to educate them about what the NBA playoffs are really like.

You think you know what a physical game is? Not yet, you don’t. You think you just can’t stand a few players around the league? Wait until you’re done with a best-of-seven battle against Ron Artest, Yao Ming, Luis Scola and Shane Battier. I’m serious here, you’re going to reach hatred by the time this series is over.

The Rockets are going to come hard. And there are not many teams in the league equipped to come quite as hard as Houston. Yao is enormous, as everyone knows — difficult to move, strong as a bull and whining to the officials everytime you as much as breath on him.

But Yao is so long that he’s short on agility. His feet don’t move as fast as he’d like them to move. You see this when he’s fronted at the post and when he’s trying to chase rebounds. He’s a plodder, like most of the Rockets.

But Artest is the real monster. He’s as the strongest small forward/off guard in the league and one of the few players who can herd you around without using his hands. He will body up on you and bump the daylights out of you — and he’s just got enough of a psycho streak in him to make you worry about cheap shots.

But Artest’s legs aren’t as good as they used to be. His lateral quickness is just about gone at this point. He’s also very streaky at the offensive end. It isn’t uncommon for NBA players to run hot and cold, but you don’t necessarily want it to be the guy on your team who takes the most shots — which Artest is. He’s a guy capable of winning you the series by himself — or losing it the same way. He’s no one I’d want to depend on as my key guy.

One thing you can do with Artest is get inside his head. You can rattle him, make him lose his focus and cause him to forget why he’s out there. It’s been happening to him for years. I’m just not sure there’s anyone on this Trail Blazer team skilled at doing such things.

In fact, now that everyone has had their rally and spent a couple of days celebrating their team, it’s time to remind everyone that the NBA playoffs are no place for choir boys. This series is going to get down and dirty in a hurry. Houston is going to march in here Saturday night and try to bully the Blazers all over the floor.

It’s going to be a physical war from game to game and the Blazers must meet force with force. In basketball at almost every level, the aggressive team gets the calls. If you push first, if you slap or grab first, as crazy as it sounds, you’re probably going to end up at the free-throw line first. This isn’t just the NBA, either — it’s the same at the high school level.

You’re going to hate the Rockets by the time this series ends, folks. They’re going to hate you, too.  And that’s the way it’s supposed to be when the stakes are high.

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Tags: Dwight Jaynes, Houston Rockets, NBA playoffs, Portland Trail Blazers, Ron Artest, Shane Battier, Yao Ming

Just a few things to keep an eye on:

– The Rockets are not playing real well right now and have been struggling to find points. This is not a team with a lot of great offensive players, other than Yao Ming. Ron Artest still thinks he is a scorer but he’s never been a great shooter. Aaron Brooks has not been consistent. The others are mostly role players. It’s important that Von Wafer isn’t allowed to get it cranked up in his off-the-bench role. He’s probably the best shooter they have from the outside.

– Rick Adelman’s teams always do a good job of keeping you from getting to the basket. They wall off the paint and make you take medium-range jumpers. He’s always liked his players to take personal responsibility for their defense, though — and this is a very good defensive team. I do not believe Artest is anywhere near the defender he used to be. The big thing with him is that you can’t let his bumping, talking and overall demeanor distract you from what you’re trying to do. At this point of his career, he’s more talk than talent at the defensive end. Shane Battier is the solid defender you have to worry about.

– The Blazers should get second-chance baskets. They should also keep the Rockets from getting them.

– This could be Adelman’s best coaching job. These guys, when you break them down, really aren’t as good as their record indicates.

– Houston has lost two straight. Stretching that streak to three is going to be extremely difficult. Portland has won four straight games by 20 or more points. Stretching that streak is going to be next to impossible.

– I’ll say the same thing I said when the Blazers last visited Texas: It isn’t necessary to win this game. But Portland must keep it close. Take it into the final minute with a chance to win. Show themselves that they can win down there. Another blowout loss to these guys on the road would kind of cancel out all the good things of late.

– Three big words: Possible. Playoff. Preview.

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Tags: Aaron Brooks, Dwight Jaynes, Houston Rockets, Portland Trail Blazers, Rick Adelman, Ron Artest, Shane Battier, Yao Ming

. . . and on Shane Battier. A very interesting — but lengthy – piece that uses Battier and a Houston-Lakers game as a platform to tell the story of the new uses for statistics in pro basketball. It’s from the New York Times magazine.

I have no doubt Battier is every bit as valuable as this story says but it also reveals that the Houston forward is guilty of one of basketball’s most selfish acts — not being willing to shoot last-second hope shots:

Just after that, the half ended, but not before Battier was tempted by a tiny act of basketball selfishness. The Rockets’ front office has picked up a glitch in Battier’s philanthropic approach to the game: in the final second of any quarter, finding himself with the ball and on the wrong side of the half-court line, Battier refuses to heave it honestly at the basket, in an improbable but not impossible attempt to score. He heaves it disingenuously, and a millisecond after the buzzer sounds. Daryl Morey could think of only one explanation: a miss lowers Battier’s shooting percentage. “I tell him we don’t count heaves in our stats,” Morey says, “but Shane’s smart enough to know that his next team might not be smart enough to take the heaves out.”

Tonight, the ball landed in Battier’s hands milliseconds before the half finished. He moved just slowly enough for the buzzer to sound, heaved the ball the length of the floor and then sprinted to the locker room — having not taken a single shot.

Taking that shot is a selfless act that can eventually lead to a victory. His team ended up losing this game on a last-second jumper by Kobe Bryant. Not making the shot, of course, adds a miss to your field-goal percentage. Over the course of a long NBA season it can cause a severe drop in field-goal percentage if you take a lot of them. And trust me, if your teammates find you willing to risk those shots, they’ll get you the ball and let you take them. All of them you want — so they don’t have to take them.

I hate that. First off, the NBA should not count those shots in field-goal percentages. They aren’t “shots” they’re heaves. Prayers. Just discount anything past halfcout in the final second or two of a game — unless it goes in. And keep track of them separately so the guys with skill in making them get credit for it.

But until the scoring rules are changed, I’m afraid I have to withhold a tiny bit of respect for Battier and anyone else who won’t take these shots for the good of their teams.

(Many thanks to the dozen or so people who sent this to me!)

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Tags: Dwight Jaynes, Houston Rockets, Michael Lewis, New York Times magazine, Shane Battier