This is written by Will Carroll, whose work in basketball and baseball is always worth a read:

Many are also conjuring up images of Sam Bowie, but let’s be clear: Oden doesn’t have a chronic foot problem, the type that ended or altered the course of the careers of Walton and Bowie. This is closer to a simple ankle sprain, the single most common injury in the NBA, and one that happens most often when a player lands on another player’s foot, though many would guess it comes more from this type of thing. No one seems too panicked about the fortunes of Michael Redd, Peja Stojakovic or Carmelo Anthony, All-Star-level players currently out with ankle sprains of varying severity.

It’s difficult enough to project what a player will do over the course of a season, let alone a career. The pressure of being a number-one pick is one thing, but Oden is also considered the heir to the Big Man Throne held by Shaquille O’Neal for the past decade, reaching back to Wilt Chamberlain, Bill Russell and George Mikan. Like Walton, he’s considered the savior of a franchise that’s been more known for arrests than wins. It may be that Oden never meets any of the lofty expectations put on him, but by calling him a bust after less than a full game and a fluky injury that could have happened to anyone who happened to land on another player’s foot, we’re doing ourselves more of a disservice than we are to Oden. He may end up being injury-prone, but as with everything else surrounding his NBA career, it’s just too early to know whether he’s the next Shaq or Wilt or the next Walton or Bowie.

In the end, this is one more pretty smart person telling us to just relax, have patience and not panic. You should check out the entire piece.

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Tags: Basketball Prospectus, Bill Walton, Dwight Jaynes, Greg Oden, Sam Bowie, Will Carroll

Big players these days seem to suffer with more injuries. It’s just part of the package, whether it be Shaq or Yao or Hakeem or Patrick Ewing or even Tim Duncan. People of that size are physically unique to begin with and are just more vulnerable, I believe. The stress on their body due to their size is incredible.

Oden’s injury this time is not serious. If I had to bet on it, I’d say he’ll be back in closer to two weeks than four weeks. And how about a little perspective here. . .

Here are the number of games Bill Walton played in (out of 82) during his first six seasons in the NBA: 35, 51, 65, 58, 14 and 33.

And are you going to say it was a bad idea for the Trail Blazers to draft Walton? I didn’t think so. Just relax and be patient. A couple of weeks out of a player’s career are nothing. And really — even if his career path is going to mirror the injury problems of Walton or Sam Bowie,  you may as well relax, anyway. He’s here. He’s a Blazer. There’s no turning back now. He seems to be a wonderful young man who wants to play a lot more, even, than you want him to play.

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Tags: Bill Walton, Dwight Jaynes, Greg Oden, injuries, Portland Trail Blazers, Sam Bowie

That’s what I’ve been hearing. Now, I know what the people who say that mean — they’re worried about having a center who is hurt all the time. But in terms of being a solid NBA player as a rookie, Greg Oden is going to be very hard-pressed to match a lot of Bowie’s numbers.

And this isn’t meant as a knock on Oden, but as praise for Bowie — who was a MUCH better player than most people remember. As a rookie, for instance, you might not remember that Bowie played 76 games, shot 53.7 percent from the field, averaged 8.6 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 2.7 blocked shots and 10 points per game. Will Oden match that in his rookie season?

Bowie was, as a matter of fact, going to be a heck of a player before the injuries got him. I covered the Blazers that season and I can tell you for sure that Bowie moved up and down the floor faster than Oden, had better hands and more explosiveness than Oden.

That’s not to say Oden doesn’t have a bigger upside and won’t someday turn out to be better than Bowie would have been. It’s way too early to write off Oden in any way, in regard to talent, injuries or anything else. Bowie came to the NBA off a full college career. Oden is 20 years old with just that one season in college. It’s going to take him a while. Making any definitive judgements about him at this point would be foolhardy.

I just want to make sure people remember that Sam Bowie was not in any way a stiff. Yes, he had injury problems. But if not for those injuries I believe he was going to be a very good NBA player — probably a many-time all-star. (Seriously — the late Kevin Duckworth was twice an all-star and Bowie, when healthy, was a better player at both ends of the floor than Duckworth). And with the kind of fast-paced, unselfish game the Blazers played under Rick Adelman, he would have been the perfect center for that team.

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Tags: Dwight Jaynes, Greg Oden, Portland Trail Blazers, Sam Bowie