After all the television and radio shows I’ve done talking about this matchup, I’m going to do my best to try to sum up my thoughts on this game, without being too repetitive and without leaving something important out. We’ll be doing a giant, two-hour pre-game show live from Pasadena on Comcast Sportsnet Friday morning, beginning at 10:30.

OK, here we go:

– I’ve picked the Ducks to win this game since the night they qualified to play in it, and I’m not going to switch my selection. But I do believe it’s going to be a much closer and tougher game than I originally thought it would be.

– From being down here in Los Angeles on media day I can definitely confirm for you that the Buckeyes are bigger than Oregon. And not only that, they appear to be in excellent physical shape — even their linemen. They are an impressive group of athletes — not only physically but in the way they handled the media day stuff.

– We sort of knew that already, didn’t we? Oregon’s strength in this game has always been about speed and guile. The Ducks need to fool the Buckeyes a bit — with play calling and the option. I still think that’s possible but I don’t think Oregon is just going to line up and have its way with Ohio State.

– Ohio State figures to be the most disciplined and physical team Oregon has played all season. Don’t forget, their annual recruiting classes are the cream of the crop and I expect them to use their discipline to make it tough going, at times, for that Oregon option. And they’re a physical enough bunch I believe Jeremiah Masoli is going to get hit harder by these guys than anyone else all season.

– You think Boise State was disciplined against the Duck offense? Just wait.

– I cannot see Terrelle Pryor being good enough to beat the Ducks with his arm. I just don’t see it — and it’s why OSU would be well-served to get a lead heading into the final quarter. If they’re forced into a passing situation, he’s not the guy who is going to be able to pull that off.

– The Buckeyes must run. The Ducks will sell out to stop the run, daring Pryor to beat them deep. I don’t think he can do that with any consistency. That’s why I believe it’s imperative Ohio State be able to run no matter what Oregon does.

– I’m not sure how well Oregon will run, either — at least not without setting it up first with the pass. These guys have one of the best run defenses in the country and you can figure they’ll play the gaps with discipline and intelligence.

– But the Ducks’ real strength all season has been their balance. Oregon, I think, has a better chance of putting together a passing attack than the Buckeyes. It’s possible the team with the most passing yards will win.

– First team to 30 will definitely win. Maybe the first team to 20. It’s going to be a low-scoring game and I know a lot of Oregon fans won’t agree with that. But this isn’t going to be easy.

– Yes, I’m bothered by the weak showing by some of those other Pac-10 “powers.” I thought Arizona was better than that. I thought Oregon State would lose but didn’t expect a blowout. The Arizona thing was a complete joke, by the way. How do you give up all those points to Nebraska?

– Chip Kelly. I’m just not sure what to make of the guy. He certainly goes his own way and seems to feel he can do whatever he wants at times. But he better keep winning. And winning big. Trust me, if he doesn’t he’s going to be on a lot of hit lists. He really upset a couple of major television networks Thursday, walking away from interviews with them that were a contractual obligation for him. Seriously, ESPN was reportedly very upset with him. He just walked right past a dismayed reporter and refused to do it. That’s not smart, Chipster — these guys pay a lot of dough for the rights to these games and it’s money all those Pac-10 schools bankroll their programs with. But hell, if you can win 11 or 12 games a year, you can do whatever you want.

– There are a lot of Oregon fans ready to  anoint Kelly a real savior. Well, perhaps. But I remember the first season of Charlie Weis at Notre Dame when everyone was so excited about him winning with another coach’s players they gave him a huge contract extension — which they recently bought out. Not saying Kelly is another Weis, but I’m just pointing out the dangers of judging a coach off one season — no matter how great it is.

– It should be a wonderful game, perhaps the best matchup of the bowl season. A study in contrasts. Let’s make it Oregon 24, Ohio State 21.

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I’m usually the first guy to tell you that bowl games, unless they’re for the national championship, don’t mean an awful lot. I’m not one who thinks the games have any real lasting impact on recruiting. They’re mostly about tricking dedicated fans into spending a lot of money travelling somewhere to watch the team play.

But this Rose Bowl is different for the Ducks. And it’s different even from the opposition, the Ohio State Buckeyes.

What a lot of people have overlooked is that Oregon (like the Buckeyes) is a very young team, perhaps a year ahead of its best football. But a victory in the Rose Bowl would allow the Ducks to open next season ranked extremely high in the preseason polls — probably in the top five.

And if you eventually want to play for a national championship, it’s of maximum importance to get that early high ranking. See, if you don’t start the season very high, you won’t be able to survive to play in a national championship game with just one loss. And although this season is unusual, with all the unbeaten teams out there, often a one-loss team can find its way into that game.

But you have to lose that one game early in the season, and you have to start the season ranked high enough that you don’t drop too far after you lose.

Oregon, with a win in Pasadena, could do that.

Yes, Ohio State is young, too. And has the same opportunity for that lofty preseason ranking next season. But let’s face it, the Buckeyes are perennially ranked high. I don’t think they need the sort of boost in profile that the Ducks do.

Oregon, with a win, can take its program to an entirely new level. And it would likely mean a very big change in the way the Ducks are perceived around the country.

For Oregon, this game is huge.

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I really appreciate everyone’s patience with me. I wish I could blog a little more often, but it’s the holiday season and I’m kind of busy — so the thing I don’t get paid for is the first one to be put on hold.

As always, I appreciate your understanding. And at the same time,I would like to wish everyone the happiest of new years.

And in a related event, I’ll be spending New Year’s Day in Pasadena, as a part of the Comcast Sportsnet crew — getting ready for two-hour shows Thursday and Friday. And I’ll be joining the MSP boys Thursday morning from there, too. More on all that later.

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Glad I was wrong in thinking that it couldn’t ever happen — Civil War with the Rose Bowl on the line. Further than that, we’ve got almost two weeks to talk about it. Just enjoy it for now. Bathe in the sweetness of Pac-10 domination.

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In this story, Mike Riley seems to have watched our “Talkin’ Ball” show Saturday night, where we first explained it all. What Riley obviously meant by “win out” was win this Saturday. But then he runs up against an editorial  ”not exactly”:

 “I saw something briefly on TV that said if the Ducks and Beavers win out, then the Civil War is for the Rose Bowl. Is that right?’’ said Riley.

Not exactly.

- Oregon (8-2, 6-1) controls its own destiny and will win the Pac-10 and go to the Rose Bowl to play Ohio State if it wins out, beating Arizona this week and Oregon State on Dec. 3 at Autzen in the Civil War game.

- Oregon State must win out, taking care of WSU and the Ducks, and needs Arizona (6-3, 4-2) to lose at least one of its remaining games. The Wildcats – who also have a shot at this thing – play Oregon on Saturday, then play at Arizona State on Nov. 28 and at USC on Dec. 5.

- Stanford (7-3, 6-2) is also in the mix, but needs help. The Cardinal – ranked No. 14 in the AP poll this week after hammering seven-time Pac-10 champion USC 55-21 – finish Pac-10 play with Saturday’s Big Game against Cal. The Cardinal go to Pasadena if they beat Cal, and Arizona beats Oregon, the Ducks beat OSU, and USC beats Arizona.

But Mike Riley has it right. Exactly right.

Yes, there are OTHER ways for OSU to make it and some of our commenters pointed them out under a prevous post — Arizona could lose to ASU or USC — but those games are AFTER the Civil War. But if Oregon beats the Wildcats this week, that’s the simplist way. See, the Ducks were badly hurt by USC’s loss last week. If Oregon were to end tied with any team, it would wish it to be USC, which it has beaten, and not Stanford.

Oregon State would love to beat Oregon and then finish tied with the Ducks and Stanford, whom it has beaten. Get it?

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The way I understand the whole thing, if Oregon wins its games leading up to the Civil War, if the Beavers do, if Stanford wins out and if USC beats Arizona — and all of these things are possible, if not quite probable –  it would leave Oregon State and Oregon fighting for that berth in the game.

If OSU then beats Oregon, the Ducks, Beavers and Cardinal would be tied for the top spot in the conference, with Oregon State getting the tiebreaker based on wins over both those teams. The Ducks are the only team in control of their own destiny, however. If they win out, they go.

But unfortunately for Oregon, if it loses even one of its remaining games, it probably won’t go. The Ducks won’t fare well in the tiebreakers.

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This Oregonlive.com blog post tells you what the whole bowl system is all about:

The potential for a Pac-10 team besides USC to play in the Rose Bowl is something that excites R. Scott Jenkins, the Rose Bowl vice president.

“We know that a team like Oregon … based on near misses, that they’re excited,” Jenkins said. “They travel well. They’d be delightful to host. They’d bring a new enthusiasm and new enthusiasm helps rejuvenate us, too. Especially if we also had a team like Iowa, who hasn’t been since 1990, that would be a special thrill.”

Jenkins also noted that Oregon fans would “fill the hotel rooms, restaurants, buy merchandise,” which would be good for the area economy.

Traveling well and buying merchandise really shouldn’t have anything to do with settling national championships or even getting invited to a bowl. But in reality, it’s what the bowls are all about. It’s how teams get picked for bowls in the first place — not on how good the team is, but how many fans will travel to watch it play.

Yes, it’s almost always been that way. But in case you don’t realize it, that stinks. You’ve got to have a playoff.

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Forget about Saturday, Beaver fans, you lost that trip to the Rose Bowl somewhere else.

When you look back at it, man, losing to Stanford to open the season — that was the loss that buried you. A shame to have lost to that outfit. And after that, it’s very ironic to note that really the same thing happened to Oregon State this year that happened to Oregon last season — your big-time dreams limped off the field in Tucson, Ariz.

Funny how all the people — including a LOT of Duck fans — who complain about the spread offense are now talking about spending as much money as they need to in order to keep offensive coordinator Chip Kelly at Oregon. All of a sudden, he’s a mastermind and a genius.

Jaquizz Rodgers would have made a huge difference. Oregon State would have maintained better control of the game and the ball with him on the field. The other OSU running backs aren’t even close to his ability. It upset me when people said it wouldn’t matter that he was out — which didn’t give Rodgers a lot of respect. But you know, when there are 66 points on the scoreboard at the end of the night, you really can’t say a thing about injuries, officiating, bad breaks or anything else. You got pounded.

Speed kills. It all comes back to that in football over and over.

Ugh, the Sun Bowl. I’ve said this repeatedly but it’s a shame conferences don’t trade their bowl affiliations every three or four years. These teams are in a rut of playing in the same dull bowls every year. Look at me — I grew up in a time when bowl games were a once-a-decade experience in this state and I’m complaining about the same old bowl games every year!

I picked this game fairly accurately and some people are already figuring that I’m a “Duck fan” or something. I just pick them — and it doesn’t mean I’m happy if I’m right. On this one, I really hated to see the Beavers lose. A Rose Bowl would have made everyone around here feel a lot better.

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There go the Trojans, right back to the Rose Bowl again.

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I just heard from a pal who knows a lot more about the BCS than I do (I confess, I’m a playoff guy and hate the whole BCS mess). He says that the Pac-10 doesn’t get as much money for its second bowl team as I thought. Sorry, my bad. The additional payout, according to him, is $4.5 million and not $17 million. So while there is still quite a pot of additional revenue, there isn’t the gigantic financial incentive for the Pac-10 to get Oregon State into the Rose Bowl that I thought.

That would work out to only about $450,000, not $1.5 million per school — chicken feed by today’s big-time college athletics’ money-squandering standards. That’s not even going to buy enough Guitar Hero games to make the football team happy.

So go ahead, Ducks — you can try to win. No use tanking it.

And for all you people out there so alarmed by my suggestion that the Ducks ought to take a dive in the game . . . it’s called SATIRE. It’s a lost art. I was just kidding, for heaven’s sakes. Relax and chill out. You know and I know that nobody is going to intentionally lose the Civil War. And nobody would seriously suggest they do.

At least I thought you knew that.

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