People have asked about this and I think the best way to look at it is to compare the situation to last season.
At small forward last season, Portland used Nic Batum as the starter and he averaged 18.4 minutes per game. Rudy Fernandez, Travis Outlaw and Brandon Roy all served time at small forward behind him. Outlaw averaged 27.7 minutes per game but a lot of that time was at power forward, not small forward.
If Turkoglu comes to Portland at upwards of $9 million per season, you can expect the team to use him at least 36 minutes a game. A small portion of that time could come at power forward, of course. But the other problem for Rudy is that the Blazers are going to want playing time for their backup small forward(s) — either a developing Batum, who simply cannot ride the pines with his defensive skills, or Martell Webster, who, if he’s healthy is going to be a big help with his outside shooting. Or both.
This, of course, is assuming Outlaw is traded. It’s possible two small forwards could be dealt, but even if that’s the case, the remaining one — either Webster or Batum — is going to need plenty of playing time in a backup role.
At point guard, the same problem exists. If Andre Miller or Kirk Hinrich arrives, they’re going to play more than the 31.7 minutes per game Blake played last year. And Sergio Rodriguez, the backup point guard last season, averaged 15.3 minutes. You’d want Jerryd Bayless or Blake, whoever survives the deal that will bring Hinrich or Miller, to get at least 15 minutes a game behind the starter. I think this will bite into the number of minutes Roy will play at the point.
Rudy got 25 minutes a night last year mainly because coach Nate McMillan wasn’t sold on his backup point guard and also because of the injury to Webster. That opened playing time that won’t be there this season — unless there’s an injury, which you don’t really want to plan on or hope for.
Brandon Roy averaged 37.2 minutes and it would be smart to cut that back some, in the interest of Roy’s long-term health. But it won’t be cut back much and even if it’s down to 35 minutes, that still leaves only 13 for Rudy behind him.
The Portland lineup featuring Fernandez that was used most often last season was, according to 82games.com, the one that featured him at off-guard, along with Blake at the point and Roy at small forward. I wouldn’t expect Roy — or Rudy — to log a lot of minutes at small forward this season with Hedo and Webster and/or Batum sucking up those minutes.
And moving forward, even 25 minutes per game isn’t going to placate Rudy. That’s not to paint him as a complainer, either. It’s just that he’s better than that. He’s a starting off-guard in the NBA and eventually that’s what he’s going to want to be. I don’t blame him. And I think trading him is eventually going to be the right thing to do for both parties. That’s not saying do it right now, either. My stance has been consistent — he’s going to have to be dealt at some point, so keep your eyes open and do it when it makes sense. Don’t wait until you’re backed into a corner.
Accepting bench roles and limited minutes in the NBA is for seasoned veterans who have already made the big bucks. Young players want to establish their worth and get into the big contracts. It’s just the way it works.
In summary, acquiring a prime free agent at point guard and small forward would solidify Portland’s rotation to a great degree. I don’t think you’d see Roy playing as many positions and it’s presumed the rotation would be more defined and probably shorter.
By the way, I promise to do my best to make this the last post on this subject for a long time.
Tags: Andre Miller, Brandon Roy, Dwight Jaynes, Kirk Hinrich, Martell Webster, NBA, Nic Batum, Portland Trail Blazers, Rudy Fernandez, Steve Blake