Not sure why, but I have thought all along that Portland still has some sort of point-guard deal on the back burner that would be announced after the free agency chase is done. Not sure if it’s Kirk Hinrich, but that’s the one that makes the most sense.

Part of my suspicion is based on the fact that Portland hasn’t seemed to show a lot of interest in the free-agent point guards out there. They’ve been after forwards. Could that be because they’ve got a point guard already in their grasp?

I’ve also wondered if the Bayless point guard experiment in Las Vegas is a bit of a showcase, too. Perhaps they’re trying to prove to other teams Bayless can play the point. If so, that’s probably not going so well. It would make some degree of sense, though, because if you’re going out to acquire a point, you’re probably going to have to give one back.

Just idle summer musings.

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Tags: Dwight Jaynes, free agency, Jerryd Bayless, Kirk Hinrich, point guards, Portland Trail Blazers

People have asked about this and I think the best way to look at it is to compare the situation to last season.

At small forward last season, Portland used Nic Batum as the starter and he averaged 18.4 minutes per game. Rudy Fernandez, Travis Outlaw and Brandon Roy all served time at small forward behind him. Outlaw averaged 27.7 minutes per game but a lot of that time was at power forward, not small forward.

If Turkoglu comes to Portland at upwards of $9 million per season, you can expect the team to use him at least 36 minutes a game. A small portion of that time could come at power forward, of course. But the other problem for Rudy is that the Blazers are going to want playing time for their backup small forward(s) — either a developing Batum, who simply cannot ride the pines with his defensive skills, or Martell Webster, who, if he’s healthy is going to be a big help with his outside shooting. Or both.

This, of course, is assuming Outlaw is traded. It’s possible two small forwards could be dealt, but even if that’s the case, the remaining one — either Webster or Batum — is going to need plenty of playing time in a backup role.

At point guard, the same problem exists. If Andre Miller or Kirk Hinrich arrives, they’re going to play more than the 31.7 minutes per game Blake played last year. And Sergio Rodriguez, the backup point guard last season, averaged 15.3 minutes. You’d want Jerryd Bayless or Blake, whoever survives the deal that will bring Hinrich or Miller, to get at least 15 minutes a game behind the starter. I think this will bite into the number of minutes Roy will play at the point.

Rudy got 25 minutes a night last year mainly because coach Nate McMillan wasn’t sold on his backup point guard and also because of the injury to Webster. That opened playing time that won’t be there this season — unless there’s an injury, which you don’t really want to plan on or hope for.

Brandon Roy averaged 37.2 minutes and it would be smart to cut that back some, in the interest of Roy’s long-term health. But it won’t be cut back much and even if it’s down to 35 minutes, that still leaves only 13 for Rudy behind him.

The Portland lineup featuring Fernandez that was used most often last season was, according to 82games.com, the one that featured him at off-guard, along with Blake at the point and Roy at small forward. I wouldn’t expect Roy — or Rudy — to log a lot of minutes at small forward this season with Hedo and Webster and/or Batum sucking up those minutes.

And moving forward, even 25 minutes per game isn’t going to placate Rudy. That’s not to paint him as a complainer, either. It’s just that he’s better than that. He’s a starting off-guard in the NBA and eventually that’s what he’s going to want to be. I don’t blame him. And I think trading him is eventually going to be the right thing to do for both parties. That’s not saying do it right now, either. My stance has been consistent — he’s going to have to be dealt at some point, so keep your eyes open and do it when it makes sense. Don’t wait until you’re backed into a corner.

Accepting bench roles and limited minutes in the NBA is for seasoned veterans who have already made the big bucks. Young players want to establish their worth and get into the big contracts. It’s just the way it works.

In summary, acquiring a prime free agent at point guard and small forward would solidify Portland’s rotation to a great degree. I don’t think you’d see Roy playing as many positions and it’s presumed the rotation would be more defined and probably shorter.

By the way, I promise to do my best to make this the last post on this subject for a long time.

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Tags: Andre Miller, Brandon Roy, Dwight Jaynes, Kirk Hinrich, Martell Webster, NBA, Nic Batum, Portland Trail Blazers, Rudy Fernandez, Steve Blake

The New York Daily News is reporting that Jason Kidd’s free agency will begin Wednesday with a visit to the Knicks. He’d have to want to be a Knick pretty bad because all New York can offer is a mid-level exception, which is a lot less than Dallas or Portland could give him.

The story, by the way, also mentions that Kidd will meet with the Trail Blazers.

And in other news involving potential Trail Blazer point guards, the Detroit News is reporting that the No. 1 free-agent target for the Pistons will be Chicago combo guard Ben Gordon. That’s important because most people believe if Gordon leaves the Bulls, Chicago will not be interested in trading Kirk Hinrich.

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Tags: Ben Gordon, Chicago Bulls, Dallas Mavericks, Detroit Pistons, Dwight Jaynes, Jason Kidd, Kirk Hinrich, New York Knicks, Portland Trail Blazers

On Wednesday, NBA teams can begin talking to free agents and their agents, although they can’t sign anyone for a week. But already there are rumors about which teams are chasing which players.

I believe the Trail Blazers have their sights set on adding not one but two new players. And everyone seems to be saying they’re after Hedo Turkoglu. I must say that I’m a little surprised by that. While he’s a great guy and a very good player — as we saw in this season’s playoffs — I just don’t know that he fits real well with Brandon Roy.

Turkoglu seems to operate best when he has the ball. The Magic made best use of him in a 1-4 set, the same thing Portland often uses with Roy. When he doesn’t have the ball, Turkoglu tends to stand around a lot. And he’s not much of a spot-up shooter or defender.

Last season was far from his best year. He shot only 41.3 percent from the floor, 35.6 percent from three-point range. He averaged a nice 4.9 assists per game but that was mitigated by 2.65 turnovers per game.

I’m not sure that’s worth $10 million a year, which is what he’s seeking — although in today’s NBA I’m not sure he can get it.

The other player Portland is rumored to be seeking? Well, the Kirk Hinrich gossip just won’t go away. A player the Blazers could have had prior to the trading deadline, he has more value now because of a solid playoff series against the Boston Celtics.

If most of the free-agent budget is spent on Turkoglu, Hinrich is an available option through trade. It would probably cost the Trail Blazers Travis Outlaw (expendable with the arrival of Turkoglu) and one of the point guards, either Jerryd Bayless or Steve Blake. I’d guess the Bulls would want Bayless.

I’m not enamored with these moves. I’d much rather see Portland go get a better point guard in an unbalanced trade. I’m not in love with this free-agent class. Turkoglu is one of the better ones, but it’s a weak class. This is probably the Blazers’ last chance for quite a spell with this kind of cap space and I’m not sure Hedo Turkoglu is where you’d want to see that money spent.

One thing is sure, though. The NBA expects Portland to be big spenders. One NBA source, who has been in the league quite a while, expects the wallet to open and the Blazers to try to clear as much cap room as possible:

“They’re going to shift into ‘drunken sailor mode,’” he said.

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Tags: Dwight Jaynes, free agents, Hedo Turkoglu, Kirk Hinrich, Portland Trail Blazers

Perhaps this is true, that the Chicago Bulls point guard is telling friends he believes he’s being traded to the Trail Blazers. But all I can tell you is that Portland could have had him back at the trading deadline — and very cheap, too. The Bulls were ready to practically give him away at that point of the season.

Maybe the Blazers were convinced by the solid playoff series Hinrich had against the Boston Celtics. Or perhaps Kevin Pritchard — who has always liked Hinrich — finally won his argument with someone else in the organization who has been adamantly against the move.

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Tags: Chicago Bulls, Dwight Jaynes, Kevin Pritchard, Kirk Hinrich, NBA Draft, Portland Trail Blazers

That’s the latest report, that the Nets really are willing to practically give him away. That’s how anxious New Jersey is to get out from under his contract. What I’ve heard from two sources this morning is that Portland is in a staredown with the Nets — the Blazers will take Carter but want New Jersey to throw in an upcoming first-round pick that originally belonged to Golden State.

Remember, this is all just talk. Speculation. The kind of stuff that’s always out there on trade-deadline days.

I’ve also heard that Portland is still talking to the Chicago Bulls about Kirk Hinrich. Adding Hinrich and Carter on the same day would change the face of a franchise, wouldn’t it?

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Tags: Dwight Jaynes, Kirk Hinrich, New Jersey Nets, Portland Trail Blazers, Vince Carter

As we near Thursday’s big day, let me reiterate what lies ahead for the Trail Blazers. This year the deadline offers a unique opportunity for Portland, in that so many owners are experiencing financial hardships both in their primary businesses and their NBA teams.

That leads to teams making deals merely to reduce payroll — which is very often a bad way to run a team. And it’s something that leads to some very unbalanced trades. The Blazers, sitting on RLEC (you know, Raef’s expiring contract) and a couple of players of value — Travis Outlaw and Sergio Rodriguez — they’re willing to deal, may have an opportunity to make a franchise-changing trade.

Or not.

Kevin Pritchard is being very picky here, which he should be. There isn’t going to be a deal made wherein the Blazers surrender that contract and a few players for just anyone. I think KP will pull the trigger for the player of his dreams, but otherwise, well, he’ll do nothing.

Dealing the RLEC would likely cause Portland to take back a nasty contract, one with long-term implications. The Blazers will soon have to extend the Roy and Aldridge deals and don’t want to get themselves fenced in by a nasty salary cap situation.

Paul Allen has been a great owner when it comes to taking on salaries if he sees a championship in the future. But it’s not fair to ask him to start going $80 million to $100 million in debt each season, either.

So with all that in mind, here are some odds to play around with on what’s likely to happen. And really, all we can do is throw a few names at the wall and see if anything sticks. Remember, too, this is for entertainment purposes only — please NO WAGERING!:

Even money: The Trail Blazers don’t find the deal they want and decide, for now, to hold onto RLEC. If they don’t move the contract, you could still see a minor move made but nothing that’s going to make the hair stand up on the back of your neck. I think this option is more likely than you might imagine. There is nothing wrong with saving that final bullet in your gun for a better shot later on.

2-1: A player you’ve never seen or heard in a previous trade conversation arrives. Come on, there’s no way any of us know what’s really out there for the Trail Blazers. Some organizations keep things quiet, you know. They’re not all the Phoenix Suns. These are the most fun deals. You acquire a player who you never thought would be available to you. Kind of like Pau Gasol going to the Lakers last season for practically nothing. That’s become the new gold standard for mid-season deals.

3-1: Richard Jefferson. This is the name that keeps coming up. He makes a lot of sense because he’s a team-oriented small forward who can do a little bit of everything and has deep playoff experience.

8-1: Kirk Hinrich. Makes a lot of sense if you want to shore up the perimeter defense. Reliable shooter who can defend. And he’s available. A Kansas guy, too. Problem is, I don’t see the point of investing in a long-term point-guard option if the team thinks Bayless is their guy.

10-1: Andre Miller. It seems likely he’ll be traded and the Blazers have always liked him.

10-1: John Salmons. A player who could help but who isn’t going to be a game changer. His name won’t send shockwaves through the city, either.

20-1: Jason Kidd. I know, a long shot. But there’s just something in the back of my mind about the guy coming here for a season or two and mentoring Jerryd Bayless while teaching this team the value of getting the ball into the post.

100-1: Amare Stoudemire. No chance, really. I don’t really believe Portland wants this player. Particularly not at the price being asked.

OK, that’s just a list of names. I don’t pretend to know any secrets at this point. I will say this, too: Don’t forget, if the Blazers go out and get a player, he’s got to be able to fit in — not only with the “culture” of the team, but the personalities and talent. The first question you want to ask about any new player of significance is this: Can he play with Brandon Roy? How does he fit with Brandon Roy?

I’m sure before any major deal is made that question will be asked to Brandon Roy, too.

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Tags: Amare Stoudemire, Andre Miller, Brandon Roy, Dwight Jaynes, Jason Kidd, John Salmons, Kirk Hinrich, NBA trade deadline, Portland Trail Blazers, Richard Jefferson, RLEC