As we near Thursday’s big day, let me reiterate what lies ahead for the Trail Blazers. This year the deadline offers a unique opportunity for Portland, in that so many owners are experiencing financial hardships both in their primary businesses and their NBA teams.
That leads to teams making deals merely to reduce payroll — which is very often a bad way to run a team. And it’s something that leads to some very unbalanced trades. The Blazers, sitting on RLEC (you know, Raef’s expiring contract) and a couple of players of value — Travis Outlaw and Sergio Rodriguez — they’re willing to deal, may have an opportunity to make a franchise-changing trade.
Or not.
Kevin Pritchard is being very picky here, which he should be. There isn’t going to be a deal made wherein the Blazers surrender that contract and a few players for just anyone. I think KP will pull the trigger for the player of his dreams, but otherwise, well, he’ll do nothing.
Dealing the RLEC would likely cause Portland to take back a nasty contract, one with long-term implications. The Blazers will soon have to extend the Roy and Aldridge deals and don’t want to get themselves fenced in by a nasty salary cap situation.
Paul Allen has been a great owner when it comes to taking on salaries if he sees a championship in the future. But it’s not fair to ask him to start going $80 million to $100 million in debt each season, either.
So with all that in mind, here are some odds to play around with on what’s likely to happen. And really, all we can do is throw a few names at the wall and see if anything sticks. Remember, too, this is for entertainment purposes only — please NO WAGERING!:
Even money: The Trail Blazers don’t find the deal they want and decide, for now, to hold onto RLEC. If they don’t move the contract, you could still see a minor move made but nothing that’s going to make the hair stand up on the back of your neck. I think this option is more likely than you might imagine. There is nothing wrong with saving that final bullet in your gun for a better shot later on.
2-1: A player you’ve never seen or heard in a previous trade conversation arrives. Come on, there’s no way any of us know what’s really out there for the Trail Blazers. Some organizations keep things quiet, you know. They’re not all the Phoenix Suns. These are the most fun deals. You acquire a player who you never thought would be available to you. Kind of like Pau Gasol going to the Lakers last season for practically nothing. That’s become the new gold standard for mid-season deals.
3-1: Richard Jefferson. This is the name that keeps coming up. He makes a lot of sense because he’s a team-oriented small forward who can do a little bit of everything and has deep playoff experience.
8-1: Kirk Hinrich. Makes a lot of sense if you want to shore up the perimeter defense. Reliable shooter who can defend. And he’s available. A Kansas guy, too. Problem is, I don’t see the point of investing in a long-term point-guard option if the team thinks Bayless is their guy.
10-1: Andre Miller. It seems likely he’ll be traded and the Blazers have always liked him.
10-1: John Salmons. A player who could help but who isn’t going to be a game changer. His name won’t send shockwaves through the city, either.
20-1: Jason Kidd. I know, a long shot. But there’s just something in the back of my mind about the guy coming here for a season or two and mentoring Jerryd Bayless while teaching this team the value of getting the ball into the post.
100-1: Amare Stoudemire. No chance, really. I don’t really believe Portland wants this player. Particularly not at the price being asked.
OK, that’s just a list of names. I don’t pretend to know any secrets at this point. I will say this, too: Don’t forget, if the Blazers go out and get a player, he’s got to be able to fit in — not only with the “culture” of the team, but the personalities and talent. The first question you want to ask about any new player of significance is this: Can he play with Brandon Roy? How does he fit with Brandon Roy?
I’m sure before any major deal is made that question will be asked to Brandon Roy, too.
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