A quick look in the standings shows Portland three games ahead of New Orleans, 31/2 ahead of Memphis and four ahead of Houston. But that’s deceptive. And with Portland having just 20 games left, that seems like a huge lead.

But the Blazers have played a lot more games than those other teams and have a lot of losses. In fact, a loss tonight to the Grizzlies and Portland is just one game in the loss column ahead of those three teams.

That means if just one of those teams — New Orleans, Memphis or Houston — gets hot, then the Blazers still have a fight on their hands.

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Tags: Houston Rockets, Memphis Grizzlies, New Orleans Hornets, Portland Trail Blazers

Man, the first quarter last night was a thing of beauty for the Utah Jazz — and basketball purists. The Jazz sliced and diced the Portland Trail Blazers, spread them out, isolated them and cut them up, laying them bare at both ends of the court in front of about 20,000 people.

Seriously, the new buzz words for the past several seasons in the NBA are cliches by now… all I’ve heard lately from teams is how they need to find players who can “create their own shot.” Yeah, well… I’m old-school. I admit that. But I remember when basketball was a beautiful team game –when it was systems that created shots. And that’s what I saw from the Jazz last night.

Jerry Sloan has never been coach of the year? What a joke. He’s one of the last holdouts who plays the game the right way, who has a system at both ends of the court and sticks to it — and makes sure his players do, too.

Did you see the Jazz just handing the ball to a player last night, asking him to go one-on-one to get a shot? And it’s not as if they couldn’t do that, either. Deron Williams could do it any time. But he works within a proven system that provides great shots for everyone — and Williams has no trouble getting his within that system.

Rick Adelman does this. So do Phil Jackson and Larry Brown. They understand that moving the ball, moving bodies and demanding that players be disciplined within a team framework is critical to winning basketball. For all you young people who think basketball is nothing but isolations and clear outs, who think you win by just handing the ball to your best guy and staying out of his way — well, get your hands on a video of last night’s game.

A lot of fans think that just because John Stockton and Karl Malone were in Utah so long running pick-and-rolls, that what Utah does is pretty predictable. But no way. Even in those days, the Jazz would come at that play in so many different ways, from so many different angles. You’d have to stop all sorts of back cuts, off-the-ball screens and player movement before they got to that play.

And you wonder why Malone and Stockton stuck around for almost two decades, playing in nearly every single game that whole time? Well, they were never asked to carry the same load that a Brandon Roy carries on a nightly basis — the task of taking the ball in the middle of the floor and constantly trying to beat multiple defenders on the way to the basket.

I get so frustrated with people who think that’s how you play winning basketball.

Look, last season the Houston Rockets ate the Blazers alive in the playoffs — and Portland came away saying it needed one more player, in addition to Brandon Roy, who could get his own shot. Meanwhile, the Blazers had been carved up by a team with NO players who could get their own shot but instead played a team game, stayed within a structured group of sets, ran plays, worked to get each other open.

Is nobody paying attention to this? Your system is supposed to get you shots, too — but it doesn’t happen here very much.

And at the other end of the court, well, it’s the same thing. For most of the first half, the Trail Blazers couldn’t get an open look. They had trouble getting to the basket and getting open threes. The Jazz got out to Portland’s guards while still being able to seal off the inside as well as anyone the Blazers have played.

Rudy Fernandez, Andre Miller, Martell Webster and Steve Blake combined to go 8 for 39 from the field. Jerryd Bayless was 5 for 12, but made that many only because he was relentless in his pursuit of cheap buckets late in the game when the issue was decided.

In the second half, things became a little more equal because Carlos Boozer left in the middle of the third quarter with a calf strain, right about the time Williams went to the bench with his fourth foul and Utah was pretty bad at the foul line. Besides, the trailing team, especially at home, always gets that run in the second half.

(By the way, it was a typical LaMarcus Aldridge game — great statistics at the end of the night but if you were watching the game, you wouldn’t like what you saw. For most of the night, Boozer just annihilated him. If he hadn’t gotten hurt, he’d have thrown Aldridge off the Broadway Bridge by the fourth quarter.)

But don’t let that obscure what happened in this game. The Jazz gave the Trail Blazers a very big lesson on how the game is supposed to be played. And it’s real important that everyone understand that.

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Tags: Brandon Roy, Carlos Boozer, Deron Williams, Dwight Jaynes, Houston Rockets, Jerry Sloan, Larry Brown, NBA, Phil Jackson, Portland Trail Blazers, Rick Adelman, Utah Jazz

It should come as no surprise that the Trail Blazers continue to live and die by the three-point field goal. Miss those shots in Orlando? They lose that game — against a Magic team just begging for three quarters to be beaten. Make threes in Miami? Win the game.

The Blazers don’t have a lot of choice, you say, because they don’t have a post player and they don’t have the willingness to run a cohesive fast break. (And that’s another topic).

Now I know this is going to sound like an old-fashioned concept, but what about getting a few baskets off a set, halfcourt offense? Isn’t it about time the Trail Blazers ran something other than isolations and one-on-one stuff?

I hate to keep coming back to this, but just watch Houston. Please. The Rockets are patient and disciplined and in rather the same kind of injury situation as the Trail Blazers. The only difference is Portland is much more talented than Houston. The Blazer front office has been sold on the premise that it needs players who can initiate offense — yet Portland lost in the first round of the playoffs last season to a team that had NO players who could do that.

Houston’s halfcourt offense generates offense. Screens, cuts, off-the-ball action — all of that allows the Rockets, collectively, to be better than they are individually.

The Rockets survive night after night with solid defense and a disciplined offense that moves the ball and moves bodies. There’s nothing magical about it — it’s just the concept of players accepting the responsibility of looking for each other and of doing the things that allow themselves and others to get open.

It’s better, long term, than that old “live by the three, die by the three” stuff that the Blazers have been using for the last few seasons. And until Portland figures out a way to scrounge a few more points in the paint — either by offensive rebounds, fast breaks or post play — it’s going to be an up-and-down season.

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Tags: Dwight Jaynes, Houston Rockets, Portland Trail Blazers

I got the idea for this post from sitting down the first night I got this year’s Pro Basketball Prospectus. By the way, that book is a must. Did you hear me? It’s a must if you’re any kind of an NBA fan. Most of you have already heard about it but I want to make sure you hear it from me: Buy this book!

And as far as Christmas gifts, it’s a no-brainer for anyone remotely interested in basketball at any level. It will give you insight into players and teams you heretofore haven’t even thought about and also tell you all about the new metrics being used to effectively evaluate teams and players. I’m a huge fan of the Prospectus books, having been a consumer of the Baseball Prospectus for many seasons and this is every bit as good.

And as far as a gift goes, it’s the best — it keeps on giving for months because it’s not a cover-to-cover read. It’s one you want to peck away at, reading here and there and digesting what you read. You have my permission to leave this post momentarily and buy the book right here, if you promise to come right back.

Anyway, I digress… What I read in the Trail Blazer section of the book, written by the renown Kevin Pelton, was this:

“Portland’s offseason strategy made it clear the team’s braintrust was deeply concerned about how the Blazers lost to the Rockets. Houston was able to hold the league’s second-best regular-season offense in check, rotating stoppers Shane Battier and Ron Artest on Roy — with plenty of assistance from a defense well-schooled in offering help. Essentially, the Rockets dared the other Portland players to beat them, and those role players were unequal to the task,

As a reaction, the Blazers went looking for another creator on offense who could relieve some of the pressure on Roy. . . . “

Well-stated, and true. We all heard the same things. And I think this was a total misconception about what the team actually needed. And it was a very big misinterpretation of what happened in that playoff series.

First off, the idea that you need more than one “initiator” of offense is kind of crazy. Of course, if you had another one, it would be OK — but it’s not necessary. What was lost in that whole summary of that series is that the Blazers lost to a team that had NO OFFENSIVE INITIATORS!

Prior to the series, Rick Adelman told me flat out, “Our problem, since we lost Tracy McGrady, is we don’t have anyone who we can give the ball to who can just get a shot when we need it. We don’t have anybody now who can do that. Tracy could. What are we going to do? I think it’s possible for different people to step up in different games and make a difference. We’ll execute our offense and see what we get.”

And the whole point is, without a man who can get his own shot — without, really, any great offensive stalwarts — the Rockets ran their offense to perfection and picked the Blazers apart, getting great shots throughout. It’s the way basketball was meant to be played — a team actually getting points FROM ITS OFFENSE, rather than just from an individual player going one-on-one.

And then watch Portland operate. I’ve been encouraged lately to see Portland getting a few, a scant few, points off pick and rolls and backcuts for lobs at the basket. Finally — a few buckets not coming from one-on-one play.

Watch Portland some night — well, maybe not tonight against the hapless Wolves but against a real NBA team — and see how many times they get the ball to Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge or Greg Oden and just let them go one-on-one. They work hard for their hoops — but are still vulnerable when other teams play solid help defense and run another defender at them.

It’s not just the Trail Blazers, by the way. It’s rampant around the NBA. Just because you happen to have a player on your team who can beat people one-on-one doesn’t mean you have to totally abandon sound offensive principles. It’s almost as if coaches have given in to players and don’t have the will to demand disciplined offense.

But it’s the reason there’s a pretty good gap developing between the really good teams in the league and the bad ones. The good ones defend that sort of offense with help defense — rendering such teams impotent.

The answer, of course, isn’t just in adding another one-on-one player. The answer is giving the team offensive structure that actually leads to points on a consistent basis. If you’re going to call pick and rolls, actually use the pick — and look for the man rolling toward the basket. Drive and dish. Set screens away from the ball and watch for the man who set the screen to roll open at the basket. Move without the ball, move the ball and move bodies.

Houston sliced and diced Portland with that kind of stuff last season in the playoffs and are still doing it. But for a team to execute in the halfcourt like that, it must be unselfish, disciplined and smart. The reward, though, is great — because you will find open shooters all over the court if you run your offense well.

Often, when I watch the Blazers try to execute against good NBA defenses, I’m reminded of the great line from Hall of Fame football coach John McKay, when he was coaching the horrid, expansion Tampa Bay Bucs. “What do you think of your team’s execution?” McKay was asked.

“I’d be in favor of it,” McKay deadpanned.

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Tags: Basketball Prospectus, Dwight Jaynes, Houston Rockets, Kevin Pelton, Portland Trail Blazers, Rick Adelman, Tracy McGrady

Surprise team in the NBA? Phoenix? Well, maybe. But at least the Suns have Steve Nash. It’s Houston, hands down. Even when losing, like last night against the Los Angeles Lakers in overtime, the Rockets have been impressive.

Can this team, which isn’t tall, isn’t deep and isn’t really all that talented keep it up?

In a word, no. It can’t. Teams like that — that are undersized every night and not very deep — usually wear down or get hurt as the season moves along. It’s the price you pay for going to war every night against the physical power that the NBA brings in almost every game.

The Rockets need to continue to shoot very well from the three-point line to continue their offensive success, too. I’m not believing that they can continue to do that. It’s very difficult.

On the whole, this team’s start is a tribute to Rick Adelman’s continued ability to make the best out of the personnel he’s given. He’s one of the best I’ve ever seen. If this team finishes at or above the .500 mark in the tough Western Conference, he should go straight to the Hall of Fame.

That’s not a .500 roster.

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Tags: Dwight Jaynes, Houston Rockets, NBA, Rick Adelman

This story is interesting in the wake of the Trail Blazers’ ridiculous defensive performance last night at Houston. I’ll have more tomorrow on this topic but it’s crazy to assume that Portland’s inability to defend (not just for this season but for most of last season) has everything to do with a lack of effort. One player hinted at the problems and he was backup center Joel Przybilla:

 ”Same (stuff) as last year,” center Joel Przybilla said, his cheeks red from agitation.

And here:

“It’s not one guy, as a team we weren’t on the same page,” Przybilla said. “We have to get it together as a team.”

These guys do not seem to have a team-defense system that allows them to consistently rotate and find defensive help, the way the good NBA teams do it. We saw the same thing last season. But people are constantly fooled by one-game shooting percentages. Just because a team doesn’t make shots against you, doesn’t mean you are playing great defense. It’s one indicator, but hey — some nights opponents just don’t make open shots.

That’s what happened in the opening game of the season when the Rockets couldn’t buy a basket against Portland. But they were getting good shots.

It’s NOT too early in the season to make a point about this. It’s a problem that has dogged this team forever, as Przybilla indicated. And effort alone is not going to cure it.

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Tags: Dwight Jaynes, Houston Rockets, Joel Przybilla, Portland Trail Blazers, team defense

A few more observations about the game, tempered by a few hours to think about it, which does provide some perspective. And really, some of you are new to this site so I’ll give you the skinny right now at the start of the season. If you come here looking for a rah-rah, everything-the-Blazers-do-is-great point of view, you’ve come to the wrong place:

• I have a feeling that Houston is going to be one of those teams that’s hard to look good against. The Rockets sag all over you inside, making it difficult to get much done in the post. They’re also going to be pretty good at forcing turnovers.
• That said, getting outscored 40-26 in the paint by those tiny guys is an embarrassment. Once again, Portland looked content to match shots from distance against shots in the paint. That won’t work in the playoffs, when the opposition is more talented.
• Yes, Greg Oden made seven turnovers, some of them wickedly embarrassing. But that’s exactly why he needs the ball even more. You’ve got to let him deal with that. Get used to the defensive pressure. It’s the only way he’s going to get better. And while you’re at it, let go of the idea that the world will end if it even costs you a game. That’s not what’s important here. Think globally, not locally.
• Don’t worry about the late Houston comeback. It happens, especially in the NBA. Portland was in no danger of losing that game.
• I still don’t think Brandon Roy looks ready for the regular season. His shot is just not there yet and he doesn’t seem to quite have a feel of where he fits in.
• The Blazers spent a good portion of the game trying to set LaMarcus Aldridge up to go one-on-one on Luis Scola. Not sure why, but I guess a contract extension gets you a few more touches. It didn’t work so well.
• Why do I feel that Portland is somehow adrift at point guard? Yes, Steve Blake’s the starter, but Andre Miller feels like the right guy. And while we’re in something of a limbo state, neither guy looks all that comfortable. It’s almost as if everyone out there knows deep down Miller is the guy and they’re all waiting for the coach to come to that conclusion.
• Martell Webster played with a maturity I’m not sure we’ve seen before. He seemed to play with calm and cool. And he also showed a lot of athleticism to go with that smooth stroke.
• Greg Oden needs to relax on defense. He still flails around a little bit trying to make plays he can’t possibly make. He’s fine most of the time but once in a while he just gets carried away trying to block shots he cannot possibly reach. A big key for him will be to learn to recognize blockable shots and pass on the rest. Otherwise the fouls will continue to come. That said, I really do hope the referees give him a fresh chance — a couple of those whistles last night were reputation calls.
• That effort Tuesday night won’t work against Denver on Thursday. But the Nuggets will bring a lot of good out of the Blazers and it should be a dogfight.

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Tags: Andre Miller, Brandon Roy, Dwight Jaynes, Greg Oden, Houston Rockets, LaMarcus Aldridge, Martell Webster, Portland Trail Blazers, Steve Blake

Sorry for the delay today, folks. Did a 3 a.m.-6 a.m. show on 95.5 The Game this morning with Ron Pivo, as part of their “24 hours of Rip City” and it kind of kicked my tail. Used to be able to do that stuff with ease, but you know how it is — you get older and slower.

On the other hand, I challenge you to set that alarm for 2 a.m. sometime and then try to be “on” for three hours. Ugh. On the other hand, don’t do it. It can be rather draining.

Anyway, yesterday when linking to our post on making sure the Trail Blazers use Greg Oden on offense, True Hoop asked us this question:

Nobody is big enough to guard Greg Oden, even though he’s only an OK offensive player. Does that mean the Blazers should give him the ball a lot, while ignoring the options that made the NBA’s most efficient offense last season?

My answer really is wrapped up in what I think about the season in general. Absolutely the Blazers should get the ball to him. A lot. If they know what’s good for them.

Yes, the Blazers were very efficient on offense last season, largely because they were an outstanding three-point shooting team. Will they shoot that well from distance again this season? Maybe. Maybe not. I think outside shooting tends to be transitory — it comes and goes. But what I know to be true is that dunks and layups are a pretty efficient foundation for your offense, too.

And I know this because I saw Portland lose a playoff series to Houston last season because the Blazers shot — and missed — a whole lot of outside shots while the Rockets were getting a lot of dunks and layups.

And I’ll make this case, too — you better have an inside game if you want to win a championship. In the Finals last season we watched the Lakers and Magic vie for a title — each team had a solid post presence and played from the inside out, using the inside scoring as a base for opening the shooters up on the outside.

I think against the better defensive teams, the ones you have to beat to advance in the playoffs, the three-point shots get more difficult. Come on, the Celtics, the Lakers, the Magic, the Cavaliers — in the playoffs, they’re going to make sure they close out on your outside shooters. You won’t get the open looks you get in the regular season.

That’s why the development of Oden’s game on offense is so important to this team — particularly when it appears that LaMarcus Aldridge is going to continue to spend a lot of his time shooting mid-range jump shots, rather than post up.

If Oden can command a double-team on the inside, the Blazers will always have a chance to get easier shots, everywhere on the court, because double-teams mean defensive rotation, rather than locking in on scorers.

That’s where Portland needs offensive improvement.

And oh, the defensive improvement goes without saying. For this team to get anywhere in the postseason, there must be significant progress in limiting the opponents’ field-goal percentage. This is imperative.

And I do believe improvement this season won’t be judged solely on the team’s record. To make advances, you sometimes have to take a step or two backward temporarily. Don’t worry about the number of wins — just keep an eye on that opponent field-goal percentage.

And keep an eye on Greg Oden. At both ends of the court. He’s got to stay out of foul trouble — will the “real” referees, who didn’t do any exhibition games, think he’s better at not fouling that he was last season? If Oden stays on the floor for more minutes, the Blazers should be instantly improved.

It’s going to be the most interesting season in a long, long time.

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Tags: Dwight Jaynes, Greg Oden, Houston Rockets, LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers

My buddy Ben over at Blazers Edge has a post today telling us that people even now (including Clyde Drexler) are saying they are. He adds some positive comments from John Hollinger, too.

I think it’s at least 50-50 that it will happen as early as this season. But I’m thinking that after this season, it’s surely going to happen. It seems to me that San Antonio has made the most positive moves this summer in the West — but that given the age and injury history of the Spurs’ key player, Tim Duncan, and the injury problems of Manu Ginobili, you can’t project them very far out. I will, though, give Gregg Popovich this season and say he’s going to have the Spurs nipping at the Lakers’ sneakers.

Dallas made some decent moves this summer, too, but its window is beginning to close and I’m not sure this bunch is ever going to overcome the memory of blowing that NBA title that Miami stole from them.

Denver? Well, perhaps George Karl can hold that circus together for one more season but I sense implosion will eventually occur. I am just not fond of the mix of players in Denver and I think there are selfish players there. Chauncey Billups is going to have his hands full trying to keep everyone happy about getting the ball enough.

Houston? A long shot to even make the playoffs now, without Yao and with Tracy McGrady questionable. It’s a shame a team can go from that good to that bad in such a short time. Phoenix is kind of the same story — the best player is aging, the rest of team full of question marks. Maybe, MAYBE, one more playoff run if Amare Stoudemire is healthy. But the long term future of the Suns is pretty cloudy.

One team that is on the rise, though, is Utah. If Trail Blazer fans are sitting around waiting for their young team to get better, I think Jazz fans are doing the same. If Utah can find a way to move Carlos Boozer and get value in return, you know Jerry Sloan is likely to milk a pretty good season out of the Jazz.

I also look for the Clippers to be much better this season and a probable playoff team. Yeah, I know it sounds crazy and they’re certainly not going to be a threat to the Lakers, but if you’ve seen anything of Blake Griffin, you know that he’s going to be an impact player.

Oklahoma City (it still pains me to write that name down as an NBA franchise holder) is going to be a factor very soon, too. I expect them to make a big leap in wins this upcoming season.

Overall, though, I think the West is slowly starting to regress back toward the East, which is getting better each year, thanks to a lot of high draft picks and the presence of superstars like D-Wade, Dwight Howard, LeBron and The Big Three in Boston. It always runs in cycles and I think we can see, out there on the horizon, the West’s cycle coming to an end.

I can see in a couple of seasons, the balance of power shifting eastward and by then, it’s going to be the Lakers and Trail Blazers kind of alone at the top in the West. Not sure, though, if the thinning of the conference talent helps Portland or not. That remains to be seen. Certainly it will lead to more gaudy won-loss records — which is a bigger deal than people think because of all those playoff homecourt advantages gained based on season record – even though it’s a league where nobody plays the same schedule.

I’ve not been sure all summer that the Trail Blazers would be able to improve much on those 54 wins of last season, just because they were so fortunate last year to win so many close games. Stat guys will tell you that over time, that’s not much due to skill as it is good fortune and that eventually, it evens out, even for the good teams. What the good teams do is win a lot of games by big margins — which the Trail Blazers will begin doing.

And now that I see the conference rapidly aging and the younger teams still not quite ready to step up another level, I think Portland actually does have a real chance to get up close to that 60-win level, assuming no major injuries, which, as we know is a major assumption.

Of course, it’s still early. Between now and late October there’s still time for Martell Webster to reinjure that foot, Greg Oden to step on someone’s ankle, the Clippers to lose two or three players to injury or for Ron Artest to do something stupid.

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Tags: Dallas Mavericks, Dwight Jaynes, Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, NBA Western Conference, Oklahoma City Thunder, Portland Trail Blazers, San Antonio Spurs

It’s as if the Western Conference powers are sitting around a poker table and each one, in turn, keeps upping the ante. The Blazers might just as well swoop in and pluck Steve Nash from the dead carcass that was once the Phoenix Suns.

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Tags: Amare Stoudemire, Dwight Jaynes, Houston Rockets, NBA Western Conference, Phoenix Suns, Steve Nash