They used to say that in boxing — that contrasting styles are what make a fight interesting.
Tonight’s matchup between the Blazers and Warriors will be intriguing because you have one team in a real hurry to get to the other end of the floor to hoist up a shot. And the other team that is carefully strolling, step by step, to the other end to take as much time as possible to get off its shot.
It’s the turtle and the rabbit, with the Blazers wearing the shell.
John Hollinger works so hard for ESPN crunching numbers that it’s a shame not to use them. Of course, I can’t directly link to them because they’re “Insider” — which really is a royal pain in the butt. Anyway, John — who is the closest thing basketball has to baseball’s Bill James — has unique team stats that can give you a useful picture of what’s going on in the NBA. I love his “pace factor” stats, which tell you how quickly teams play, based on the number of possessions they get per game.
The Warriors rank second in the league in pace factor, behind the Knicks, at 99.6. The Blazers? Last in the league by a good margin, at 87.5. That’s a huge difference, by the way — and one would have to think the real story of tonight’s game is which team will impose its will on the other. Can the Warriors get the Blazers to run with them? If the Blazers can slow the tempo down, will it be a big advantage?
I don’t know, but I see this as the kind of game the Blazers should win if they wish to establish themselves as a playoff team.
It will be interesting to see if Greg Oden’s regular appearance in Portland’s lineup changes its pace. You would assume Oden’s shot blocking might lead to a few more fast-break points. But on the other hand, teams with strong low-post centers tend to slow the game down so that their big man can get to the block and have a chance to influence the game.
There are a couple of other interesting things to be learned from Hollinger’s stats. I’d always thought of Nate McMillan as a defense-oriented coach. It’s the kind of player he was, certainly. But his impact on this year’s Portland team is much more at the offensive end. The Blazers rank third in the NBA in offensive efficiency, which is based on points per 100 possessions. Portland averages 107.7 points per 100 possessions, behind only Cleveland and Atlanta in that department. That surprised me.
But what didn’t shock me is that on defense, the Blazers rank ahead of only three other teams (New Jersey, Washington and Sacramento) in defensive efficiency, allowing 108.1 points per 100 possessions. That’s pretty awful but the real point is, the numbers say they are more inefficient on defense than they are efficient on offense. They give up more points than they score, which in the long run will get you a lot of losses.
But perhaps Oden will have an impact in that department, too. If Portland is to reach its goal of postseason play, that defensive number surely must improve. By quite a bit.
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