It’s way too early to panic. Three games are just three games. And when it comes to statistics, we’re dealing with what the experts call a small sample size. You know, if you start the baseball season by getting hits in five of your first 10 at-bats, it doesn’t mean you’re going to hit .500 for the season.
But on the other hand, I think it merits mention that after three games, the Trail Blazers are the worst defensive team in the NBA, based on the field-goal percentage that opponents have compiled against them.
Teams are shooting a combined 52.3 percent from the field against the Blazers over three games. And worse yet, Portland is allowing opponents to shoot 51.2 percent from three-point range — when the next-worst team in the league is allowing 44.3 percent three-point shooting.
Portland’s allowing teams to get inside for easy shots and because it’s belatedly trying to help out inside, the three-point shooters have been wide open. It’s a lethal combination. Point guards are penetrating into the heart of the defense with ease and post players are getting to the rim. I think the changes in the starting lineup — with Oden and Webster not playing — are affecting the team defense. Man, I’ll say this right now: You don’t realize how valuable Webster is to this team until he’s out. He’s much more reliable at both ends of the floor than Outlaw, who is so up and down. It’s why I think the team would still be better off with Nicolas Batum starting in Webster’s absence.
Now I have no doubt a lot of this is just kind of fluky. Portland’s played three quality teams and sometimes things like shooting percentage take several games to find their statistical norm. But I don’t like the trend. I also don’t like the fast-break situation. In three games, the Blazers have had 4, 14 and 5 fast-break points. That’s just not going to get it done. I think there is such an emphasis here with keeping turnovers down (which is being done) that the temptation to get into the open court and run is very easy to resist.
Teams improve in many areas throughout the season. For the Blazers, that improvement must start on the defensive end. I’m not sure Oden’s return will influence it a great deal, either. He’s not yet shown he’s ready to be a big intimidator. It’s going to have to be a team improvement — with help defense cutting down the penetration and swifter double-teams coming on the post.
That improvement is going to be necessary right away, too. Next up is Utah, a team that traditionally is one of the best in basketball at getting the ball inside.
It sounds so simplistic but I don’t hear many people talking about it: On most nights, the team that gets the best shots wins. That means on defense keeping teams outside and contesting every single shot — and on offense, getting dunks or uncontested layups to go with wide-open three-point shots. If you do all that, you’ll do OK on the boards, too, because you’ll always be in good position to rebound.
(An aside: I have a friend whose ex-wife didn’t know anything about sports, even though her husband was deeply involved in them. So he would teach her one phrase, a truism, that she should always use whenever someone asked her about a particular sport. For basketball, it was, “You’ve just got to get the ball in deep to the big guy.” She’d say that, and nothing more. People would always nod their head and figure, this woman knows her basketball.)
If you don’t have “the big guy” you slash to the basket, you fast break, you do what you can to get the ball to the basket. Keep a shot chart some night, just put an X down where each team takes a shot. Circle the X when the shot is made. The team with its Xs closest to the basket will almost always have the most circles, get the most free throws and . . . win the game.
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