Paul Allen couldn’t have drawn up a better Western Conference bracket, if they would have handed him the chalk and the ability to seed his own tournament.

Can you imagine — a No. 6 seed that ends up having won the season series over ALL the other teams on its side of the conference bracket? Incredible.

If Brandon Roy didn’t have that injury, I would not hesitate to say to you that the Trail Blazers were going to get all the way to the Western Conference finals. In fact, even if they have to play without Roy I’m tempted. It’s a soft field on this side, folks.

And the news Wednesday night was that Roy is very likely to play during this series. He’s apparently doing better. Sure, without him, it’s going to be difficult. But the great thing about playing the Suns is that they can’t change much about the way they play. It’s not one of those teams that’s suddenly going to get tougher and more physical in the postseason — who is going to do that, Channing Frye?

The Suns will try to do what they do — force a tempo on you, play that dribble-drive offense with Steve Nash creating for himself and others and hit the offensive boards. But the Blazers dealt with that two out of three times this season and could have beaten the Suns in the third game. There is no way Portland is intimidated by this matchup.

Portland, as Nate McMillan said last night, “has a shot.” A good shot. And if the Blazers were to beat the Suns, the next round is possible, too. They’ve played very well against the Spurs and Mavs this season and I’d expect them to do it in the playoffs, too.

Combine that with the lack of pressure on them — hey, at this point with all the injuries they’re on a free pass — anything’s possible.

Tweet This Post

Mauer is a veteran official who has worked as deep into the NBA playoffs as the Finals, which means he’s a pretty good official.

He was miserable last night. So much so that if the NBA can send out a “We-screwed-up” e-mail after a failure to call one little foul on a last shot, it ought to send out a full press release explaining why Mauer isn’t suspended for a while after a game that bad. And yes, I’m blaming him and not his partners because he seemed to be in the middle of a good portion of the horrible calls.

And folks, those calls didn’t all go against Portland. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a player get away with what ESPN’s John Hollinger called a “triple-dribble” the way Brandon Roy did. There were ridiculous misses both ways and Hollinger called it “the worst-officiated game I’ve ever seen.”

But he also noted that the Mavericks responded to the situation better than did the Trail Blazers and he was right about that. The Blazers lost their cool and it cost them dearly. All season long I’ve been begging for Nate McMillan to stand up for his players and take a “T” but when he did, with about three minutes to go in this one, it was way too late and too costly, given the situation late in the game.

But the players were composed compared to the fans. It was pretty disgraceful. Throwing stuff on the floor, getting ejected from expensive front-row seats and chanting “these refs suck” really isn’t going to help. In fact, folks, here’s a real scoop for you — with tough-minded officials like Mauer, it’s going to hurt.

At this level, referees are anxious to prove that you can’t intimidate them, no matter what the situation. This isn’t college basketball, where the stripes run for cover as soon as the final horn sounds, looking like scared sheep. This is the NBA, where they strut around daring you to react to them.

If you create an environment this nasty, it’s probably going to mean that veteran officials are going to stick it to you even more — just to show you they cannot be intimidated. I know that may not be fair or proper, but it’s human nature.

The real story of the game, in a long-term sense, is that the Mavericks made a real statement — so much so that I’m not sure their one win in the season series doesn’t mean more than Portland’s three wins. Dallas is now on the growing list of teams that seems to know how to play the Blazers.

It’s pretty simple stuff — just double-team Brandon Roy whenever you can, pack the paint and push them around. Getting physical with the Blazers is the way to handle them. And certainly putting the pressure on Portland to move the ball is very effective — because its ball movement isn’t good and hasn’t been for several seasons.

Take Roy away and the Blazers often have no answer. Giving Andre Miller open shots is very effective. Just sag off him and take away his penetrations. Same with Jerryd Bayless. These guys simply can’t consistently make shots and the more open you leave them the more they struggle.

Now the Blazers still have a shot at Dallas in a seven-game series because I’m still not buying the Mavericks as a team that can consistently execute a defensive plan and stay physical throughout a series. They’re a soft bunch, even after their trading deadline coup.

But I was discouraged, overall, to see Portland struggle in this situation where it wasn’t ready for the intensity a meaningful game against a good team can bring. Man, the caliber of officiating be damned, you have to be ready to play.

The Blazers really weren’t.

Tweet This Post

First off, is there any doubt this is the team Portland would fare best against in the first round of the playoffs?

Frankly, Dallas just doesn’t defend very well. The Mavs loaded up on Brandon Roy Thursday night and did a decent job of jumping him, double-teaming him and basically making it difficult for him to get off a shot. But at least Roy was able to make most of the shots he did get.

Portland did an even better job of throttling Dirk Nowitski. The Blazers crowded Dirk all night and I thought, did about as well as you can do with one of the most prolific offensive players in the game. It was a very nice job. And while Portland’s other players were able to step up and help take up for the slack of their leading scorer being held under his average, the Mavs were not.

Now that said, last night was a little easier than it could have been. In the playoffs, you’re probably not going to see a free-throw disparity of one team shooting nine times (Dallas) and the other (Portland) shooting 26 times. It’s probably not going to happen and it was a key part of the Blazers’ success.

Man, I love what Caron Butler brings to Dallas. His 25 points and nine rebounds were effortless yet spectacular at times. I thought Shawn Marion did an outstanding job on Roy and can still throw in a lot of those garbage shots he takes that look ugly but go in. I love to watch Marion’s release on shots from distance — he looks like a guy caught with a large hand grenade who is trying to get rid of it as quickly as possible.

And yes, while Marcus Camby was a huge help on offense, if you put his jumper alongside Marion’s on the ugly meter, I believe the meter would blow itself up.

But Camby stepped up with LaMarcus Aldridge and Andre Miller to deliver this one for the home team.

A couple of notes here — the Mavs had zero fast-break points. Zip. That’s pretty incredible. Portland got 101 points off 80 shots even with a sub-70 percent free-throw shooting night. And had nine turnovers while shooting 50 percent. You’re not going to get much more efficient than that. … The Blazer bench played more than 70 minutes and had just seven rebounds and no assists. … Jerryd Bayless? I sense his playoff minutes are going to be very short unless he starts playing better. I could see a three-guard rotation in big games with Bayless out and Rudy Fernandez in. It just doesn’t look like the coach is going to trust him much — and with the way he’s been playing, I don’t blame him.

Tweet This Post

I wanted to get this written before Sunday night’s game against the Nuggets in Denver. I expect the Trail Blazers to at least give Denver a solid battle tonight, if not win the game.

Yeah, I know — given the records of the teams that sounds a little crazy.

But here’s the deal: Portland won 54 games last season and didn’t have as good a team as it has right now, this minute. Injuries have contributed to the Trail Blazers’ record so far this season, that and the result of those injuries – playing completely without a center for a couple of months.

But now that Marcus Camby is here, I think you can take a look at Portland’s lineup and say it’s better than the one that won 54 games last season. Seriously, Andre Miller is a big upgrade at the point, Camby is a marginally better player than Joel Przybilla, this year’s Nic Batum is much improved and well, Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge are better players this season than last — at least they ought to be.

Oh, you’re going to say this group needs time to get used to each other. Well, maybe — but I think veteran players like Miller and Camby and players with the basketball IQ of Batum don’t need that much time. Look at the Dallas Mavericks, who were overnight a better team with the trade-deadline addition of Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood and DeShawn Stevenson to their lineup.

The Mavs didn’t need a lot of time to settle in — they haven’t, in fact, lost since the acquisition of those players.

I think you’re going to see the Trail Blazers, now that everyone is healthy, begin to play better immediately. And that starts tonight in Denver.

Tweet This Post

The Dallas Mavericks are proud of the depth they have but it’s possible the Trail Blazers will get a real gift tonight from them if Dirk Nowitzki does not play. Dirk, they say, is “gradually improving” after needing stitches to close a cut on his right elbow suffered in a collision with Houston’s Carl Landry.

If Dirk doesn’t play, I’d make Portland the favorite in this game. If he does play, well, forget about it.

Tweet This Post

My buddy Ben over at Blazers Edge has a post today telling us that people even now (including Clyde Drexler) are saying they are. He adds some positive comments from John Hollinger, too.

I think it’s at least 50-50 that it will happen as early as this season. But I’m thinking that after this season, it’s surely going to happen. It seems to me that San Antonio has made the most positive moves this summer in the West — but that given the age and injury history of the Spurs’ key player, Tim Duncan, and the injury problems of Manu Ginobili, you can’t project them very far out. I will, though, give Gregg Popovich this season and say he’s going to have the Spurs nipping at the Lakers’ sneakers.

Dallas made some decent moves this summer, too, but its window is beginning to close and I’m not sure this bunch is ever going to overcome the memory of blowing that NBA title that Miami stole from them.

Denver? Well, perhaps George Karl can hold that circus together for one more season but I sense implosion will eventually occur. I am just not fond of the mix of players in Denver and I think there are selfish players there. Chauncey Billups is going to have his hands full trying to keep everyone happy about getting the ball enough.

Houston? A long shot to even make the playoffs now, without Yao and with Tracy McGrady questionable. It’s a shame a team can go from that good to that bad in such a short time. Phoenix is kind of the same story — the best player is aging, the rest of team full of question marks. Maybe, MAYBE, one more playoff run if Amare Stoudemire is healthy. But the long term future of the Suns is pretty cloudy.

One team that is on the rise, though, is Utah. If Trail Blazer fans are sitting around waiting for their young team to get better, I think Jazz fans are doing the same. If Utah can find a way to move Carlos Boozer and get value in return, you know Jerry Sloan is likely to milk a pretty good season out of the Jazz.

I also look for the Clippers to be much better this season and a probable playoff team. Yeah, I know it sounds crazy and they’re certainly not going to be a threat to the Lakers, but if you’ve seen anything of Blake Griffin, you know that he’s going to be an impact player.

Oklahoma City (it still pains me to write that name down as an NBA franchise holder) is going to be a factor very soon, too. I expect them to make a big leap in wins this upcoming season.

Overall, though, I think the West is slowly starting to regress back toward the East, which is getting better each year, thanks to a lot of high draft picks and the presence of superstars like D-Wade, Dwight Howard, LeBron and The Big Three in Boston. It always runs in cycles and I think we can see, out there on the horizon, the West’s cycle coming to an end.

I can see in a couple of seasons, the balance of power shifting eastward and by then, it’s going to be the Lakers and Trail Blazers kind of alone at the top in the West. Not sure, though, if the thinning of the conference talent helps Portland or not. That remains to be seen. Certainly it will lead to more gaudy won-loss records — which is a bigger deal than people think because of all those playoff homecourt advantages gained based on season record – even though it’s a league where nobody plays the same schedule.

I’ve not been sure all summer that the Trail Blazers would be able to improve much on those 54 wins of last season, just because they were so fortunate last year to win so many close games. Stat guys will tell you that over time, that’s not much due to skill as it is good fortune and that eventually, it evens out, even for the good teams. What the good teams do is win a lot of games by big margins — which the Trail Blazers will begin doing.

And now that I see the conference rapidly aging and the younger teams still not quite ready to step up another level, I think Portland actually does have a real chance to get up close to that 60-win level, assuming no major injuries, which, as we know is a major assumption.

Of course, it’s still early. Between now and late October there’s still time for Martell Webster to reinjure that foot, Greg Oden to step on someone’s ankle, the Clippers to lose two or three players to injury or for Ron Artest to do something stupid.

Tweet This Post

The New York Daily News is reporting that Jason Kidd’s free agency will begin Wednesday with a visit to the Knicks. He’d have to want to be a Knick pretty bad because all New York can offer is a mid-level exception, which is a lot less than Dallas or Portland could give him.

The story, by the way, also mentions that Kidd will meet with the Trail Blazers.

And in other news involving potential Trail Blazer point guards, the Detroit News is reporting that the No. 1 free-agent target for the Pistons will be Chicago combo guard Ben Gordon. That’s important because most people believe if Gordon leaves the Bulls, Chicago will not be interested in trading Kirk Hinrich.

Tweet This Post

There are several reports floating around the web that the Blazers might be interested in either Steve Nash or Jason Kidd.

Nash is not a free agent and would require some sort of deal, with reportedly a package including Travis Outlaw and Jerryd Bayless headed to Phoenix. I think such a deal is absurd and something Portland would never consider.

First, it’s too much to give for Nash, whose career as a small point guard who depends on his quickness may be coming to a rapid close. Second, Nash does not really fit the profile of the way Portland plays. He’s a guy who always wants to push the pace and will make a few turnovers. We’ve already seen Steve Nash Lite here and that was Sergio Rodriguez. He’s been in the Nate McMillan doghouse for three seasons here and will surely be gone next season. And I’m not so sure the Blazers want to trade Bayless.

Pursuing Jason Kidd makes much more sense to me. Yes, I know he’s old. I know he can’t defend the quicker point guards the way he used to guard them. I know he’s not much of a shooter. But I’m convinced that he’s one of the league’s true leaders and would be a great mentor for not only Bayless but the rest of a young team. From what I’ve heard, he performed that role perfectly for the Olympic team — where McMillan had a front-row seat.

And I think it’s not a reach to think Kidd, a free agent, could be available to Portland. Yes, I know — he’d be expensive. But he’s also the home run that Kevin Pritchard loves to hit. Andre Miller? A nice solid double, but Kidd has starpower, great knowledge of the game and still burns to win a championship to go with his two Olympic gold medals. He may not defend as well as he used to, but he knows how to defend. He understands team defense and can feed the post. He’s probably what this team has lacked.

I’ve never been a huge fan of Kidd’s because it always bothered me that he can’t shoot. I just don’t much like players who can’t make shots. But in this case, I think he could be a great fit in Portland. But can the Blazers afford him? That depends on how much he wants.

Kidd will turn 36 next November and is known to be seeking more than a one-year contract. Two years would be fair but anything beyond that would seem out of touch with reality. He just finished a six-year, $103.6 million contract that was originally signed with the Nets — a deal that made him the second-highest paid player in the league last season at something over $17 million.

If he’s looking for anything in that neighborhood, he’s out of luck, of course. But — and it’s hard because we still don’t know what the salary cap will be next season — it’s possible the Trail Blazers could comfortably find cap room of about $9 million, which could be enough.

The Mavericks can pay him more than that and possibly would, because they see their championship window closing. Dallas GM Donnie Nelson calls Kidd “the straw that stirs the drink” and seems determined to keep him. But Kidd may yearn for a younger group with a better chance at a title. It’s probably his last chance to make a major move of his own choice.

But I’m not sure Kidd is the kind of guy who wants to pull a Gary Payton and just sign on to be a spare part with a team that’s already a part of the championship picture.

Here’s what Kidd said in a postseason interview session:

“I’m not looking at it as trying to win a championship, hitching on a bandwagon and jumping on with a team that’s a favorite,” Kidd said. “I’m looking to help a team try to win a championship. Whether it’s here in Dallas or wherever it may be, I still feel that I have a lot to give to the game.”

Kidd, who has no intention to sign a one-year deal, sees himself as a guy who can play at a high level for a few more seasons while teaching his evenutal replacement the NBA ropes. He’d be a heck of a mentor to a rookie like Ty Lawson, Eric Maynor or Jonny Flynn that the Mavs might draft this summer.

Or Jerryd Bayless. Doesn’t the Portland situation sound just a little like what he’s looking for?

Tweet This Post

That thought popped into my head this morning as I read Dallas owner Mark Cuban’s apology to the mother of Denver Nuggets forward Kenyon Martin, which appeared on Twitter and Cuban’s blog.

Cuban, to a lot of fans, is the perfect owner. He’s a self-made billionaire and a sort of regular guy. Imperfect like us all, a fan first and an owner second. I mean, for a lot of people, if they owned a team they’d want to be just like Cuban — sit on the bench with the team, travel with it, just sort of be one of the guys.

His players seem to love him — and they ought to because he spoils them to death. He’s taken the Mavericks up a notch in Dallas and he obviously seems willing to do anything to win. Perfect owner, right?

Well, I’m not so sure his fellow owners and the league office believe that. They see him as a royal pain in the ass, complaining about stuff all the time, screaming at referees and even at players on other teams. To them, he’s an uncouth embarrassment, a very loud, undignified example of what an owner of a professional sports team ought to be. And from what I’ve heard, they rue the day they allowed him into their private club.

On the other hand, we have Paul Allen. He also wants to win and is perfectly willing to put his money where his heart is. Truth be told, the man has lost hundreds of millions of dollars on his Trail Blazers, all in search of an NBA championship.

But he’s quiet. He doesn’t often bother with owners meetings and has never gotten into the social part of being an owner in the NBA. You’ll see him on the baseline, under the basket, munching on some popcorn, cheering, chatting with his general manager. But this is never going to be the guy who is caught screaming at a player on another team — or that player’s mother. I’ve never seen him where he didn’t seem to be totally under control.

Paul’s deal isn’t hanging out with the team, although in the early days of his ownership, there were some H-O-R-S-E games with Clyde Drexler and Kiki Vandeweghe. Allen likes the player personnel side of it all. He’s heavily involved in the draft and in trades. He’s got his own opinions, and as the owner of the team, expresses them. Probably quietly, I’m guessing. But when you own the joint, you don’t need to speak loudly. People listen.

As long as you aren’t in his crosshairs, Cuban is hard to dislike. He’s a character. He’s different. The Mavericks almost seem to be named after their owner and I kind of wish there were more like him. I like Allen, too. In fact, my only regret is never having a chance to get to know him better. I think we’d have some very interesting conversations. 

I’m happy they’re both in the league. Balance is nice. And really, I have to tell you it would be kind of fun to have at least one goofy guy around here to keep things lively.

I could just picture Cuban, as the owner of the Blazers, on the floor going crazy when Trevor Ariza took out Rudy Fernandez. . .

Tweet This Post

You bet I would.

I know, I know — the Blazers got their asses handed to them Sunday night in Houston.They trailed wire to wire. But I’m going to say the same thing I’ve been saying for a month now: Portland has, 1 through 12, better players than the Rockets.

Sure, Yao Ming is better than anything Portland has at center, although not by as big a margin as it should be because Yao seems to not be totally comfortable in the spotlight. He could shoot about twice as often as he does and it wouldn’t be too much.

But you could make a case that at just about every other spot, the Blazers are better. You think Scola is better than Aldridge? You think Battier is better than Roy? You think, well, OK — yes, Artest is better than the Batum/Outlaw combination. But Artest is nowhere near the player he used to be. You could also match Roy against Artest and Battier vs. Batum/Outlaw and say the Blazers are better at both spots. I’ll give Brooks a draw with Blake at the point, but I’m comfortable Blake’s capable of more than holding his own against Brooks, at this early point of Brooks’ career.

Off the bench, it’s no contest. The Rockets have a nice group of reserves but there’s nowhere near the firepower of the Blazers.

In a seven-game series, I’ll take the most talented team every time. In playoff series, adjustments are made and all the surprises are gone. The Blazers have a little trouble defending Yao, but a game or two into a series, I believe they’d have it all figured out. Rotations become crisper. Responsibilities are well delineated.

And then it all comes down to talent. And call me a homer — nobody ever has — but I just think the Blazers, position by position, have the better roster.

And then we come to homecourt advantage. Yes, you’d love to have it. Especially if you’re playing the Lakers, Cavaliers or Celtics. But the Blazers are plenty good enough to win on somebody else’s court. Oh yeah — I know, they haven’t done it in the regular season. But again, so what? The playoffs are always different. Teams always break through on the other guy’s court. Happens every year in almost every series and it will happen in the Blazers series, no matter who this team plays. It’s just a matter of which team will blow that home game first.

The pressure is almost always on the higher-seeded team in the postseason. The visiting team has less pressure and also becomes accustomed to the other team’s arena because within two weeks, it gets two or three or even four games there. I’ve always thought home games get tougher and road games get easier in the playoffs.

My point is this: in the playoffs, talent wins out. The travel equalizes, the preparation time equalizes. It comes down, nine out of 10 times, to who has the best players. That’s one of the reasons the league shifted away from short series (it used to play best-of-three “mini-series” and then best-of-five in the first round) to seven-game series — to decrease the chance of fluky outcomes.

Against Houston, Dallas, Utah and New Orleans — the Blazers have the talent edge. And a seven-game series usually ensures talent comes out on top.

Tweet This Post