I wanted to get this written before Sunday night’s game against the Nuggets in Denver. I expect the Trail Blazers to at least give Denver a solid battle tonight, if not win the game.

Yeah, I know — given the records of the teams that sounds a little crazy.

But here’s the deal: Portland won 54 games last season and didn’t have as good a team as it has right now, this minute. Injuries have contributed to the Trail Blazers’ record so far this season, that and the result of those injuries – playing completely without a center for a couple of months.

But now that Marcus Camby is here, I think you can take a look at Portland’s lineup and say it’s better than the one that won 54 games last season. Seriously, Andre Miller is a big upgrade at the point, Camby is a marginally better player than Joel Przybilla, this year’s Nic Batum is much improved and well, Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge are better players this season than last — at least they ought to be.

Oh, you’re going to say this group needs time to get used to each other. Well, maybe — but I think veteran players like Miller and Camby and players with the basketball IQ of Batum don’t need that much time. Look at the Dallas Mavericks, who were overnight a better team with the trade-deadline addition of Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood and DeShawn Stevenson to their lineup.

The Mavs didn’t need a lot of time to settle in — they haven’t, in fact, lost since the acquisition of those players.

I think you’re going to see the Trail Blazers, now that everyone is healthy, begin to play better immediately. And that starts tonight in Denver.

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Tags: Andre Miller, Brandon Roy, Dallas Mavericks, Dwight Jaynes, LaMarcus Aldridge, Marcus Camby, Nic Batum

The Dallas Mavericks are proud of the depth they have but it’s possible the Trail Blazers will get a real gift tonight from them if Dirk Nowitzki does not play. Dirk, they say, is “gradually improving” after needing stitches to close a cut on his right elbow suffered in a collision with Houston’s Carl Landry.

If Dirk doesn’t play, I’d make Portland the favorite in this game. If he does play, well, forget about it.

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Tags: Dallas Mavericks, Dirk Nowitzki, Dwight Jaynes, Portland Trail Blazers

My buddy Ben over at Blazers Edge has a post today telling us that people even now (including Clyde Drexler) are saying they are. He adds some positive comments from John Hollinger, too.

I think it’s at least 50-50 that it will happen as early as this season. But I’m thinking that after this season, it’s surely going to happen. It seems to me that San Antonio has made the most positive moves this summer in the West — but that given the age and injury history of the Spurs’ key player, Tim Duncan, and the injury problems of Manu Ginobili, you can’t project them very far out. I will, though, give Gregg Popovich this season and say he’s going to have the Spurs nipping at the Lakers’ sneakers.

Dallas made some decent moves this summer, too, but its window is beginning to close and I’m not sure this bunch is ever going to overcome the memory of blowing that NBA title that Miami stole from them.

Denver? Well, perhaps George Karl can hold that circus together for one more season but I sense implosion will eventually occur. I am just not fond of the mix of players in Denver and I think there are selfish players there. Chauncey Billups is going to have his hands full trying to keep everyone happy about getting the ball enough.

Houston? A long shot to even make the playoffs now, without Yao and with Tracy McGrady questionable. It’s a shame a team can go from that good to that bad in such a short time. Phoenix is kind of the same story — the best player is aging, the rest of team full of question marks. Maybe, MAYBE, one more playoff run if Amare Stoudemire is healthy. But the long term future of the Suns is pretty cloudy.

One team that is on the rise, though, is Utah. If Trail Blazer fans are sitting around waiting for their young team to get better, I think Jazz fans are doing the same. If Utah can find a way to move Carlos Boozer and get value in return, you know Jerry Sloan is likely to milk a pretty good season out of the Jazz.

I also look for the Clippers to be much better this season and a probable playoff team. Yeah, I know it sounds crazy and they’re certainly not going to be a threat to the Lakers, but if you’ve seen anything of Blake Griffin, you know that he’s going to be an impact player.

Oklahoma City (it still pains me to write that name down as an NBA franchise holder) is going to be a factor very soon, too. I expect them to make a big leap in wins this upcoming season.

Overall, though, I think the West is slowly starting to regress back toward the East, which is getting better each year, thanks to a lot of high draft picks and the presence of superstars like D-Wade, Dwight Howard, LeBron and The Big Three in Boston. It always runs in cycles and I think we can see, out there on the horizon, the West’s cycle coming to an end.

I can see in a couple of seasons, the balance of power shifting eastward and by then, it’s going to be the Lakers and Trail Blazers kind of alone at the top in the West. Not sure, though, if the thinning of the conference talent helps Portland or not. That remains to be seen. Certainly it will lead to more gaudy won-loss records — which is a bigger deal than people think because of all those playoff homecourt advantages gained based on season record – even though it’s a league where nobody plays the same schedule.

I’ve not been sure all summer that the Trail Blazers would be able to improve much on those 54 wins of last season, just because they were so fortunate last year to win so many close games. Stat guys will tell you that over time, that’s not much due to skill as it is good fortune and that eventually, it evens out, even for the good teams. What the good teams do is win a lot of games by big margins — which the Trail Blazers will begin doing.

And now that I see the conference rapidly aging and the younger teams still not quite ready to step up another level, I think Portland actually does have a real chance to get up close to that 60-win level, assuming no major injuries, which, as we know is a major assumption.

Of course, it’s still early. Between now and late October there’s still time for Martell Webster to reinjure that foot, Greg Oden to step on someone’s ankle, the Clippers to lose two or three players to injury or for Ron Artest to do something stupid.

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Tags: Dallas Mavericks, Dwight Jaynes, Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, NBA Western Conference, Oklahoma City Thunder, Portland Trail Blazers, San Antonio Spurs

The New York Daily News is reporting that Jason Kidd’s free agency will begin Wednesday with a visit to the Knicks. He’d have to want to be a Knick pretty bad because all New York can offer is a mid-level exception, which is a lot less than Dallas or Portland could give him.

The story, by the way, also mentions that Kidd will meet with the Trail Blazers.

And in other news involving potential Trail Blazer point guards, the Detroit News is reporting that the No. 1 free-agent target for the Pistons will be Chicago combo guard Ben Gordon. That’s important because most people believe if Gordon leaves the Bulls, Chicago will not be interested in trading Kirk Hinrich.

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Tags: Ben Gordon, Chicago Bulls, Dallas Mavericks, Detroit Pistons, Dwight Jaynes, Jason Kidd, Kirk Hinrich, New York Knicks, Portland Trail Blazers

There are several reports floating around the web that the Blazers might be interested in either Steve Nash or Jason Kidd.

Nash is not a free agent and would require some sort of deal, with reportedly a package including Travis Outlaw and Jerryd Bayless headed to Phoenix. I think such a deal is absurd and something Portland would never consider.

First, it’s too much to give for Nash, whose career as a small point guard who depends on his quickness may be coming to a rapid close. Second, Nash does not really fit the profile of the way Portland plays. He’s a guy who always wants to push the pace and will make a few turnovers. We’ve already seen Steve Nash Lite here and that was Sergio Rodriguez. He’s been in the Nate McMillan doghouse for three seasons here and will surely be gone next season. And I’m not so sure the Blazers want to trade Bayless.

Pursuing Jason Kidd makes much more sense to me. Yes, I know he’s old. I know he can’t defend the quicker point guards the way he used to guard them. I know he’s not much of a shooter. But I’m convinced that he’s one of the league’s true leaders and would be a great mentor for not only Bayless but the rest of a young team. From what I’ve heard, he performed that role perfectly for the Olympic team — where McMillan had a front-row seat.

And I think it’s not a reach to think Kidd, a free agent, could be available to Portland. Yes, I know — he’d be expensive. But he’s also the home run that Kevin Pritchard loves to hit. Andre Miller? A nice solid double, but Kidd has starpower, great knowledge of the game and still burns to win a championship to go with his two Olympic gold medals. He may not defend as well as he used to, but he knows how to defend. He understands team defense and can feed the post. He’s probably what this team has lacked.

I’ve never been a huge fan of Kidd’s because it always bothered me that he can’t shoot. I just don’t much like players who can’t make shots. But in this case, I think he could be a great fit in Portland. But can the Blazers afford him? That depends on how much he wants.

Kidd will turn 36 next November and is known to be seeking more than a one-year contract. Two years would be fair but anything beyond that would seem out of touch with reality. He just finished a six-year, $103.6 million contract that was originally signed with the Nets — a deal that made him the second-highest paid player in the league last season at something over $17 million.

If he’s looking for anything in that neighborhood, he’s out of luck, of course. But — and it’s hard because we still don’t know what the salary cap will be next season — it’s possible the Trail Blazers could comfortably find cap room of about $9 million, which could be enough.

The Mavericks can pay him more than that and possibly would, because they see their championship window closing. Dallas GM Donnie Nelson calls Kidd “the straw that stirs the drink” and seems determined to keep him. But Kidd may yearn for a younger group with a better chance at a title. It’s probably his last chance to make a major move of his own choice.

But I’m not sure Kidd is the kind of guy who wants to pull a Gary Payton and just sign on to be a spare part with a team that’s already a part of the championship picture.

Here’s what Kidd said in a postseason interview session:

“I’m not looking at it as trying to win a championship, hitching on a bandwagon and jumping on with a team that’s a favorite,” Kidd said. “I’m looking to help a team try to win a championship. Whether it’s here in Dallas or wherever it may be, I still feel that I have a lot to give to the game.”

Kidd, who has no intention to sign a one-year deal, sees himself as a guy who can play at a high level for a few more seasons while teaching his evenutal replacement the NBA ropes. He’d be a heck of a mentor to a rookie like Ty Lawson, Eric Maynor or Jonny Flynn that the Mavs might draft this summer.

Or Jerryd Bayless. Doesn’t the Portland situation sound just a little like what he’s looking for?

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Tags: Dallas Mavericks, Dwight Jaynes, Jason Kidd, Jerryd Bayless, Kevin Pritchard, Portland Trail Blazers

That thought popped into my head this morning as I read Dallas owner Mark Cuban’s apology to the mother of Denver Nuggets forward Kenyon Martin, which appeared on Twitter and Cuban’s blog.

Cuban, to a lot of fans, is the perfect owner. He’s a self-made billionaire and a sort of regular guy. Imperfect like us all, a fan first and an owner second. I mean, for a lot of people, if they owned a team they’d want to be just like Cuban — sit on the bench with the team, travel with it, just sort of be one of the guys.

His players seem to love him — and they ought to because he spoils them to death. He’s taken the Mavericks up a notch in Dallas and he obviously seems willing to do anything to win. Perfect owner, right?

Well, I’m not so sure his fellow owners and the league office believe that. They see him as a royal pain in the ass, complaining about stuff all the time, screaming at referees and even at players on other teams. To them, he’s an uncouth embarrassment, a very loud, undignified example of what an owner of a professional sports team ought to be. And from what I’ve heard, they rue the day they allowed him into their private club.

On the other hand, we have Paul Allen. He also wants to win and is perfectly willing to put his money where his heart is. Truth be told, the man has lost hundreds of millions of dollars on his Trail Blazers, all in search of an NBA championship.

But he’s quiet. He doesn’t often bother with owners meetings and has never gotten into the social part of being an owner in the NBA. You’ll see him on the baseline, under the basket, munching on some popcorn, cheering, chatting with his general manager. But this is never going to be the guy who is caught screaming at a player on another team — or that player’s mother. I’ve never seen him where he didn’t seem to be totally under control.

Paul’s deal isn’t hanging out with the team, although in the early days of his ownership, there were some H-O-R-S-E games with Clyde Drexler and Kiki Vandeweghe. Allen likes the player personnel side of it all. He’s heavily involved in the draft and in trades. He’s got his own opinions, and as the owner of the team, expresses them. Probably quietly, I’m guessing. But when you own the joint, you don’t need to speak loudly. People listen.

As long as you aren’t in his crosshairs, Cuban is hard to dislike. He’s a character. He’s different. The Mavericks almost seem to be named after their owner and I kind of wish there were more like him. I like Allen, too. In fact, my only regret is never having a chance to get to know him better. I think we’d have some very interesting conversations. 

I’m happy they’re both in the league. Balance is nice. And really, I have to tell you it would be kind of fun to have at least one goofy guy around here to keep things lively.

I could just picture Cuban, as the owner of the Blazers, on the floor going crazy when Trevor Ariza took out Rudy Fernandez. . .

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Tags: Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Dwight Jaynes, Kenyon Martin, Mark Cuban, NBA, Paul Allen, Portland Trail Blazers

You bet I would.

I know, I know — the Blazers got their asses handed to them Sunday night in Houston.They trailed wire to wire. But I’m going to say the same thing I’ve been saying for a month now: Portland has, 1 through 12, better players than the Rockets.

Sure, Yao Ming is better than anything Portland has at center, although not by as big a margin as it should be because Yao seems to not be totally comfortable in the spotlight. He could shoot about twice as often as he does and it wouldn’t be too much.

But you could make a case that at just about every other spot, the Blazers are better. You think Scola is better than Aldridge? You think Battier is better than Roy? You think, well, OK — yes, Artest is better than the Batum/Outlaw combination. But Artest is nowhere near the player he used to be. You could also match Roy against Artest and Battier vs. Batum/Outlaw and say the Blazers are better at both spots. I’ll give Brooks a draw with Blake at the point, but I’m comfortable Blake’s capable of more than holding his own against Brooks, at this early point of Brooks’ career.

Off the bench, it’s no contest. The Rockets have a nice group of reserves but there’s nowhere near the firepower of the Blazers.

In a seven-game series, I’ll take the most talented team every time. In playoff series, adjustments are made and all the surprises are gone. The Blazers have a little trouble defending Yao, but a game or two into a series, I believe they’d have it all figured out. Rotations become crisper. Responsibilities are well delineated.

And then it all comes down to talent. And call me a homer — nobody ever has — but I just think the Blazers, position by position, have the better roster.

And then we come to homecourt advantage. Yes, you’d love to have it. Especially if you’re playing the Lakers, Cavaliers or Celtics. But the Blazers are plenty good enough to win on somebody else’s court. Oh yeah — I know, they haven’t done it in the regular season. But again, so what? The playoffs are always different. Teams always break through on the other guy’s court. Happens every year in almost every series and it will happen in the Blazers series, no matter who this team plays. It’s just a matter of which team will blow that home game first.

The pressure is almost always on the higher-seeded team in the postseason. The visiting team has less pressure and also becomes accustomed to the other team’s arena because within two weeks, it gets two or three or even four games there. I’ve always thought home games get tougher and road games get easier in the playoffs.

My point is this: in the playoffs, talent wins out. The travel equalizes, the preparation time equalizes. It comes down, nine out of 10 times, to who has the best players. That’s one of the reasons the league shifted away from short series (it used to play best-of-three “mini-series” and then best-of-five in the first round) to seven-game series — to decrease the chance of fluky outcomes.

Against Houston, Dallas, Utah and New Orleans — the Blazers have the talent edge. And a seven-game series usually ensures talent comes out on top.

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Tags: Dallas Mavericks, Dwight Jaynes, Houston Rockets, New Orleans Hornets, Portland Trail Blazers, Utah Jazz

It would be Houston.

Nobody has more respect for Rick Adelman as a playoff coach than I do. He’s going to get the Rockets out of the first round and all the way to at least the conference finals one of these seasons. But I still think it’s the best option for Portland this year in the first round.

First, you’re talking about a team that the Blazers match up pretty well against. The Rockets’ best player, Yao Ming, happens to play the position — center — where Portland’s best defenders play. Portland’s weakest defenders are at point guard, where Houston will start a player, Aaron Brooks, with a lot of talent but not a lot of experience.

Houston also features a player in Ron Artest who is about as predictable as Portland’s weather. The guy can get stormy on you in a real hurry. He’s also one of those guys who can’t shoot but thinks he can make every shot he takes. He’s capable of emotional outbursts and miserable offensive games. The guy is a trainwreck waiting to happen under playoff pressure and Adelman is very likely the only coach in the league who can handle him for any length of time.

There’s also Houston’s run of first-round disappointments. Ideally, I think Portland would profit from NOT having the homecourt advantage. It would put even more pressure on the Rockets, who could easily lose one of those first two playoff games at home.

That would set up the Blazers to hold serve at home and steal the series. I’d also tell you that even though Portland is 0-3 during the regular season against Dallas, I wouldn’t be afraid of the Mavericks in the first round. Frankly, Dallas’ talent level is the weakest of any of the playoff teams — that’s why the Mavs are probably going to be the eighth seed. Given time to prepare, Portland would handle them.

I like the Blazers against Utah, too. The Blazers, top to bottom, are more talented than the Jazz.

I’d worry about San Antonio, whose playoff experience sets it apart from the other teams, and Denver. The Nuggets are unpredictable but seem to have great confidence against the Blazers. Chauncey Billups has been such a difference maker for them.

The Lakers? Portland couldn’t beat them in the first round but it would be a series with nothing to lose and a lot to learn. Good experience. But it’s not likely to happen because the Blazers are going to get higher than the eighth seed, I’d assume.

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Tags: Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Dwight Jaynes, Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Lakers, Portland Trail Blazers, Rick Adelman, Ron Artest, Utah Jazz, Yao Ming

First off, and I think I said this the last time Dallas came into town and ambushed the Blazers, nobody is better prepared to play the Portland Trail Blazers than the Mavericks. Their coaching staff does a great job, particularly this time after playing at home the night before.

A few observations:

– There’s a reason that I made the comment after the Laker game about the way Portland takes the ball to the basket against Los Angeles. At halftime Wednesday night, the Blazers had two fast-break points and six points in the paint. Against the Lakers Monday night, I think they had 28 points in the paint at halftime. If you don’t get the ball inside and don’t get fast-break points, you’re going to lose most of the time. It puts too much pressure on your jump shooters. The Blazers made some 3-pointers because Dallas was packing the defense inside, but overall, I really never had a feeling the Mavs were going to let Portland win this game.

– Jason Kidd isn’t anywhere near the defender he used to be. He’s finally recognized he’s not an offensive player, too — so he doesn’t take many shots. But what he does do is run a team just about as well as anybody in the league. He controls the offense and defense and the tempo, too. The right guys get the ball in the right spots to score, everyone is organized. He’s a real pro and even at this point of his career, you can learn a lot by watching him play.

– Brandon Roy was not good. I hear that on television they were saying he was suffering from flu or something. All I know is that after the game, someone asked Nate McMillan “Was Brandon sick?” and the coach looked out blankly and said, simply, “No.” All I know is that when he tried to get to the basket, he had to weave through about two more players than he usually does. The defense was stacked against him and he didn’t seem to get an open shot all night. Just a rough night. Everyone has them.

– Portland had many, MANY possessions where it did not get a good shot. One or two passes and a shot isn’t going to get you much against Dallas. Ball and player movement — basic offensive fundamentals — are necessary against those guys or they lock you up.

– It was a killer loss. You’ll know this team has arrived when it can play at the level of the Laker or Celtic games and then come back in the next contest and play just as well.

– I don’t know who is making the calls on what goes up on that giant high-def replay screen, but two games in a row now some very questionable stuff has been shown. Monday it was something about how Kobe’s balls smelled and last night a cartoon of someone urinating on Trevor Ariza. Come on, guys — this isn’t junior high. That stuff is tasteless and makes the whole franchise look classless and clueless — you’re better than that. Keep it off the screens.

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Tags: Brandon Roy, Dallas Mavericks, Dwight Jaynes, Jason Kidd, Portland Trail Blazers

Well, this is what happens when a smart team goes after the Trail Blazers the right way. Portland’s pick-and-roll defense is no better than it was weeks ago and that’s allowing the opposition to get whatever matchups it wishes. But you’re tired of listening to me about this. . . so here’s Dave from Blazers Edge ranting about the same thing:

Most teams look for matchups to exploit, figuring that if your power forward can’t guard theirs they have an advantage. The Blazers have revolutionized that concept for the opponent. If you have a mismatch against any Portland player you can just run screens until you get them matched up against you. The Blazers’ point guard on your 7-foot power forward? No problem. A center against your point out on the perimeter? You got it! Call in the next 12 minutes (because you know we can’t do this all day) and we’ll throw in a case of ineffective double-teams, three or four instances of slow interior rotation on drivers, and a lifetime supply of not getting out to your shooters. Regular readers will know this is not a new phenomenon for the Blazers. But the Mavericks with their Dirk Nowitzkis and their Jason Kidds and Jason Terrys make it painfully obvious. How many times can you see Jerryd Bayless on Nowitzki before you throw your hands up in disgust?

Well said, Dave. I get a lot of comments from people who say, “You idiot, do you think you’re smarter than Nate McMillan?” No, I don’t. Not at all — at least in terms of basketball. But this is one area where I just don’t understand what his team is attempting to do on defense. Folks, this isn’t a player problem, it’s a system problem. They’re being coached to switch and then they never bother, even, to switch back.

I’ve watched the Blazers and Mavs play twice this season and I’m a firm believer that Portland has the better players. But the Mavericks have won twice because they’ve played better. Smarter.

Watch last night’s game and see the way Dallas, which doesn’t feature very good defenders, handles the pick and roll. Most of the game, the Blazers didn’t get much because the Mavs simply popped out on the screen, defended the ball, stayed with the man rolling off the screen . . . oh hell, you saw it. Of course, it makes a difference that the Blazers seemingly NEVER look for the man rolling away from the pick. Oden is rapidly losing interest in the whole process because it’s so futile for him.

Yes, I’m sick of writing about this. But get used to it. It doesn’t look to me as if rapid change is on the way. And allowing 55 percent shooting just isn’t going to get it done against real NBA teams.

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Tags: Dallas Mavericks, Dwight Jaynes, pick and roll defense, Portland Trail Blazers