Here’s the thing, I’m not one of those people who believes that fate is going to decide this football game. You’ve heard the premise — that no matter who plays for Oregon State, whether Jaquizz Rodgers is healthy or not, no matter who plays at quarterback, no matter what the Ducks do, the Beavers are destined to win this game. It’s just that kind of season for them.
Well, maybe. Possibly. But I think not. Two factors are greatly influencing the outcome of this year’s Civil War: the Ducks have had an extra week to prepare for the game and Quizz probably will not play. It would not be wise to downplay either factor.
First, Oregon has already proved over the years that given an extra week of preparation, it uses the time wisely. The Ducks almost always win after a bye week. Most teams, in fact, are more effective with extra time to prepare for a game. I think OSU’s extra week of preparation was a key in last year’s victory at Eugene. It will be huge this year. Oregon’s offense is difficult to prepare for, given the number of things the Ducks can do out of their spread. Plus, given some extra time to solve the Beaver defense, I think Oregon will game plan very well on offense.
Second, Quizz not playing is a very big deal. He’s the cornerstone of what OSU does on offense. He’s been willing and capable of a lot of carries in a game and gets better as the game goes along. He’s the big reason the Beavers have been able to control the clock and control games. He eats up yards and minutes. Those would be key attributes in beating the Ducks. I think Oregon State must get ahead, control the ball and keep it away from Oregon’s offense. If the Ducks get behind, it would put pressure on UO quarterbacks and receivers to make things happen. Oregon hasn’t proved it can handle such situations well and we all know what a huge advantage Oregon State has at wide receiver.
But without Quizz, I’m not sure OSU can control the ball for long periods.
At the same time, I’d expect to see Oregon stack the line of scrimmage and try to make the Beavers throw deep. Neither OSU quarterback is a deep thrower. Canfield, especially, seems to have a very short arm — almost every deep ball he’s thrown, other than the one James Rodgers dropped in the end zone last week, has been underthrown.
By the way, another thing I would expect is that with Quizz out, James Rodgers will be positioned more often in the backfield. He’s an outstanding runner and while you can’t run him much off the tackles, he’s still an effective running back in small doses. I’d expect to see him back there more often.
I believe it will be a great game and I wouldn’t be surprised if it comes down to the kicking game for a decision. That’s shaky for both teams because we haven’t seen a lot of clutch kicking out of either of them.
Unless the weather gets nasty, I expect a lot of points. And in a high-scoring game, I’m not certain OSU can keep up. Unless Quizz plays.
Let’s say something like 41-40, Ducks — with somebody missing a short field goal along the way. But the Beavers have one very important thing going for them Saturday: I’ve picked the Ducks. In fact, I’ve been expecting Oregon State to lose for three weeks now and wouldn’t want to change things for them now by picking them to win. In the past, I’ve usually been pretty good at picking winners but the Beavers just have me bewildered. I watch it every week and still can’t figure out how they suddenly got so good.
Maybe everyone else is right — it’s just the Beavers’ year. You can’t stop it, you can’t contain it, you just sit back and watch in disbelief.
One other small thing: There is going to be a tremendous amount of emotion in that stadium Saturday. It’s going to be close to the boiling point. So everyone please behave. No fights in the stands. No stupid behavior. No riots after the game. Treat your rival and the game of football with respect. I hate it when innocent people get hurt because of the actions of idiots. Try not to be that idiot.
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Tags: Civil War, Dwight Jaynes, James Rodgers, Jaquizz Rodgers, Oregon Ducks, Oregon State Beavers
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By playing so well, the Beavers gave the Ducks even more credibility as a powerful team. Sean Canfield was terrific, but I felt the Beavers wore down on both sides of the ball as the game went on. Oregon seemed to be the better conditioned team and you must credit Chip Kelly’s practice regimen for that.
