Gotta be alert for the cameos, but you can catch him about a minute and a half in and then again at the end. Not much mystery about the message of this video. Not safe for work, either.

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Man, this city’s got a love affair with the guy.

Never mind the fact that the Hornets haven’t yet said they’d shop him — although Paul’s making it easy for them to justify it to their fans because he’s asking out (which makes it possible for the team to turn the player into the villain and make a deal with less criticism). And never mind there may be other teams on Paul’s list that could make better offers than the Trail Blazers.

Everybody wants Paul and they want him now, darn it!

But you have to give up something to get him. For just two years, too, quite possibly. I’m not at all convinced that he doesn’t have a plan to bolt wherever he is as soon as he can and head off to join pals in New York or Miami.

Anyway, would you surrender Greg Oden to get him? Would you give up Oden and Nic Batum? How about Brandon Roy?

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Let me offer right away that I have no inside information whatsoever. What follows is speculation, based on the kinds of moves I’ve seen happen in previous situations in this league. And a creepy feeling that there is some sort of master plan at work here that we don’t know about.

What does it mean that the Trail Blazers are seeking to pay a second-year player they really like, Wesley Matthews, around $9.2 million next season to be a backup off-guard behind Brandon Roy?

Well, my conclusion would be that they’re looking to use the current backups — both of them — in a trade. If either Jerryd Bayless or Rudy Fernandez is still around at training camp and Matthews is here, I’d be shocked. At $9.2 million, Matthews wouldn’t be sharing that backup time with anyone. Bayless, by now, has proved he’s not a point guard. He’d have to be gone along with Fernandez, whose departure at this point is virtually guaranteed.

I believe Portland already has a deal in the works. For a point guard. And thus Andre Miller would also most likely be included in the deal, which would move it up to the status of a major trade. This would be the big move we’ve been waiting for out of the Trail Blazers for the last two seasons. But it would also be a trade they’d likely not feel comfortable with unless they’ve already got a Roy backup in their pockets.

Why a point guard? I’m asked that all the time because people love what Miller did for the team last season. But the fact is, Miller’s too old to be the guy to lead this team through its window of opportunity. And not the right guy to play alongside Roy, either. You need someone who can shoot the ball a lot better than that if you are going to stick with Nate McMillan’s system of no ball movement and little player movement.

Who would come in this direction?

Again, speculation here. I have no idea if this is real. You may have your own guesses. But my guess would be it would come from a group that includes Devin Harris, Chris Paul, Mo Williams or Jason Terry.

Portland’s already made it known it likes Harris and Paul. Williams, there has been speculation for a month now Portland has talked to Cleveland about him — and the Cavs are in a position where they must turn one good player into two or three decent ones. Williams, too, can really shoot it from distance and would be compatible with Roy — and the Blazers seem stuck on the concept of Roy with the ball in his hands and the point guard being a shooter.

And Terry? Well,he’s a little old at 33, but the Blazers sent Martell Webster to Minnesota a few days ago. They’re down one in the “former Seattle-area stars” department, right?

Again, your guess is as good as mine here and I’ve probably missed a name or two. Feel free to offer your own suggestion. And really, at least this concept explains what was, at first glance, a difficult move to understand.

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Well, to me, this deal is pretty incredible. Once again, the Trail Blazers overpaid for a free agent — front-loading a deal for one who could end up never playing for them. And yes, once again he’s with the Utah Jazz. And I do believe, after much hand wringing, the Jazz will match this offer sheet.

But how would he fit in Portland?

Not bad — if a couple of other things happen. First, Matthews is an outstanding defender with a nice upside. I could see him being very solid as a long-term replacement, should Roy go down with another knee injury. Kid’s got a lot of upside and could someday be a starting two-guard in the NBA.

But in the near term, he’s going to get a lot of money and you don’t give that kind of dough to a guy who isn’t going to play at least a lot of backup minutes. Which, to me, foreshadows other Blazer dealings.

We’ve known since the end of last season that Rudy Fernandez is history. He’s gone. I believe if Matthews ends up  in Portland, it also means Jerryd Bayless will be dealt. We already know Bayless is not a point guard. I figured if he played much this season, it would be as Roy’s backup. But with Matthews on hand, that has to eat into Bayless’s minutes.

I hear from all over that the Blazers are still looking to trade for a point guard. Andre Miller, Bayless and Fernandez would probably be included in that deal — just as they were in the ill-fated trade for Chris Paul.

This is shaping up to be one interesting summer of change.

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Here is a link to the Sports Business Radio website, which also contains a link to the podcast of yesterday’s show on 95.5 The Game. On that show, host Brian Berger asserted that it was, as Steve Patterson claimed on the MSP last week, Patterson who engineered the Brandon Roy/LaMarcus Aldridge draft. Not only that, he says Pritchard wanted to draft Adam Morrison.

Ouch. What worse thing could you say about a draft guru?

Berger will be a guest on the Morning Sports Page today at 7:35.

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Thanks to John Hollinger at ESPN (insider) for pointing out that isolation offenses aren’t as effective in the playoffs, where preparation is much easier than it is in the regular season:

I wrote an article recently about playoff myths — things people think change in the playoffs, but in fact don’t.

However, there’s another piece to that puzzle. Perhaps there are things people don’t think change in the playoffs, but in fact do.

I may have accidentally stumbled upon one in observing my two “home” teams, Atlanta and Portland, compete in the playoffs over the past two seasons. Watching the Hawks in particular, nearly every commentator has been shocked by how little ball movement their offense generates and how many times they end up isolating Joe Johnson while everybody else stands around and watches.

This complaint might sound familiar to folks in the Northwest, because it’s not altogether different from what the Blazers do with Brandon Roy. Both teams’ fan bases constantly complain about the lack of originality and shameless predictably inherent in such an attack.

And:

In other words, theirs is a volume strategy. The Hawks and Blazers might not take better shots than other teams, but they take a lot more of them. Over time, that gives them enough of an advantage to make them potent offensive squads overall.

So what’s the problem?

Apparently, there isn’t one … until Game 83. Remember when I was talking about things that change in the playoffs? One change is that these iso-heavy offenses apparently have a lot more trouble when opponents have time to game plan against them in a playoff series.

Take a look at the playoff results from these teams the past two seasons, and the conclusion is hard to ignore. If this happened in any one playoff series, we might be able to dismiss it as a short-term fluke. But the fact that it’s happened six times in six series tells us that maybe something about isolation-heavy offenses doesn’t function well in an environment in which opponents have several days to scout, game-plan and match up for this specific tactic.

I guess we all love it when we find others who agree with us. I think I take special delight when it’s someone I particularly respect. Hollinger — along with Henry Abbott and his True Hoop — are two guys, by themselves, worth the few cents a year that ESPN Insider costs. They know what they’re talking about.

And man, how long have we all been saying this about Nate McMillan’s “Here Brandon, take the ball one-on-three and score” offense?

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Well, we’ve got months now to evaluate this season and to look ahead to next year. So we’ll save an in-depth analysis for all the dog days to come. At the same time, a few observations on Thursday night’s season-ender:

– Man, why did Jerryd Bayless keep entering that game? I know Andre Miller didn’t play well but he played just 18:26 compared to Bayless’s 29:10. One veteran media guy who has seen more NBA games than I have over the years turned to me at halftime and said, “That guy (Bayless) may be the most selfish player I’ve ever seen. And to keep putting him out there to watch him go to the basket to get his layups blocked is crazy.”

– Rudy Fernandez may have gotten hot in this game. Well, yes, he WAS hot. But seriously, he probably gave up more easy points than he scored. The guy bordered on tragic comedy at the defensive end.

– Martell Webster and Fernandez are pulling shots out of their backside, including several three-pointers with hands in their face, but when LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy come back in the game, the ball stops going to the weak side of the floor. It’s back to the two-man game with Roy and Aldridge and so the ball stops going to the hot hands. Stops cold. And speaking of cold, Roy was 4 for 16 and Aldridge was 5 for 17. Ugh.

– See previous item when talking about the Portland coaching situation. Unless this team changes its offensive system (or actually finds an offensive “system”) this is what’s going to happen in the postseason. The whole scheme is dependent upon those two guys carrying the team with a series of one-on-one moves out of isolation. Works in the regular season when teams have no prep time and cannot adequately prepare in the avalanche of an 82-game season. But in the post-season with time to prepare? It’s a suicidal offensive scheme. Portland made the Suns’ defensive scheme look like the legendary Pistons’ Bad Boys defense.

– One thing I heard afterward from several people — “Well, the Suns were just the better team.” Yes, I’m afraid that’s correct, as long as Nate McMillan is coaching this team. All the injuries have bought McMillan another season — one more year to show what he’s doing isn’t going to work in the playoffs over the long term. I’m astounded at how people don’t look at how many open shots Blazer opponents get out of their offensive systems and how many contested shots Portland ends up having to shoot because its players cannot create their own shots against double and triple-teams.

– Yeah, the off-season will once again be filled with the Blazers searching for “another guy who can create his own shot.” Damn, Roy can do that as well as anybody but not against three guys. Already, the Blazers play more one-on-one than any other team in the league. Roy is in isolation more often than LeBron or Kobe. HELP THE MAN! Get him some stuff that he doesn’t have to turn himself into a pretzel to get! Move the ball and move bodies instead of just standing around! Yeah, I know, you’re sick of hearing that. But the problem is, you’re going to get even more sick of watching it in the future.

– The Blazers used 10 players by halftime. Damn, 10? This is supposed to be time to shorten the rotation, right?

– Nic Batum was sensational at defending Steve Nash. But Batum is also one of Portland’s best shooters and he got just one shot — with Steve Nash guarding him. And he played only 13:59. What a joke. So often, he exited for Bayless — who gave Nash someone to guard. The entire season, the Blazers never figured out how to use Batum’s length to challenge Nash. What a totally wasted opportunity. Instead, we saw Bayless trying to take him to the basket — which the Suns finally figured out how to stop. Man, just have a big man drop off his man and go block the shot — Bayless isn’t going to drop the ball off to anyone, he’s just going to try to force something up.

– Greg Oden? Bizarre. That’s all I can say. We’ll have more time to talk about it this summer, but man, this kid has a long way to go.

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Normally, it’s a good thing when your team opens a big game by making a bunch of shots. But when it’s the Trail Blazers, and they’re hitting outside shots — and those shots are being made by Jerryd Bayless and Andre Miller — it may not be a great sign of things to come. In fact, it might be a warning sign. It’s just not going to keep happening. And it’s fool’s gold. The Blazers weren’t really playing as well as it looked when it was 9-0 and 21-7 — it was just some long jumpers going in, and that’s never likely to continue with this team.

The Blazers just keep trying to swim upstream in the playoffs. Isolation games just don’t work so well when teams have the opportunity to prepare. Don’t think the problems Brandon Roy had Monday night were only because he’s still fighting the residue of that knee injury. Oh no. This is stuff we’ve seen before when teams have had a chance to truly prepare for the Blazers. Most nights, Portland doesn’t move the ball and move bodies well enough to get Roy enough open space to take his man. Which of course leads to a big stall in the Blazer offense.

But there were so many other things that went off the tracks in that game, too. I mean, I’ve been critical in the past of Nate McMillan’s two-foul rule in the first quarter. This was another time when I think it would have been wise to stick with Marcus Camby even though he drew his second foul. Hell, he’s not going to foul out of that game. He knows how to play with foul problems. But at the same time, the flood of bodies off the Portland bench in this game astounded me.

Man, teams that win a Game 5 in a 2-2 series win 83 percent of the series. If there’s ever a time to shorten the rotation, this was it. Particularly in a road game and particularly in a game where there’s a full two days rest after the game. I don’t know I’d have run all these guys out there in the second quarter — like a JV coach trying to make sure guys get their letter at the end of the season.

And really, Rudy Fernandez plays more minutes than Martell Webster? Rudy plays 15 minutes and takes one shot? One shot? I cannot even imagine why he’s still in the rotation for this game. At all. Makes no sense. What does he have to do to be benched? How bad does he have to play? And fewer than 20 minutes for Nic Batum? Seriously? That makes no sense at all. And oh by the way, while he’s out there, might be a fresh idea to actually run some sort of play for him, don’t you think? He might be the most reliable outside shooter the team has.

And even though Portland had a great start in this game, I’m going to ask why Brandon Roy was not in the starting lineup? I think it’s tough enough for him to get back into the swing of things without playing an unfamiliar role. That off-the-bench deal can be difficult for a lifetime starter and he appeared to never really get into the flow. Start him or don’t bother.

All in all, it was just one more example of how tough it’s going to be for Portland to win in the playoffs in the future with this kind of offensive attack. Brandon Roy needs help getting shots. He needs to have a system in place that just might help him get open. He needs not to have to wear two or three players on his back. This means ball movement and player movement. Damn, I get sick of writing that. But when I keep seeing what I saw out of them Monday night, I just scratch my head.

Same with the Portland defense. Man, they actually started the game by trying not to switch that pick-and-roll. That lasted just a few minutes. Then it was back to Camby on Steve Nash. To the point that Mike Fratello said, “Portland wants to switch its bigs on to Nash on the pick and roll…” Actually, Mike, according to McMillan they DON’T want to switch. But he can’t seem to figure out how not to make it happen.

You know, there are so many excuses available for this team but I’m not sure any of them apply. Injuries? Plug Greg Oden in for Marcus Camby and that’s your team moving forward. Really, are things going to change much with the way Portland plays? What you see right now is kind of what you’re going to get. Yes, a healthier Roy will make a difference. But how much difference? At some point, somebody is going to have to take a hard look at how this team plays on offense and defense and decide if it makes the best possible use of the talent on hand.

And it’s high time somebody did that.

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I’m hearing a lot about the courage it took for Brandon Roy to take the court Saturday afternoon, eight days after that knee surgery.

Well, yeah… it took courage all right. But I’d have to say, it took a lot more courage for the doctor who gave the green light for it. I mean, Roy is pain free, at least so he says. I’m sure for him, when you don’t hurt, it’s a no-brainer to want to play. But to me, the doctor who is willing to put his reputation — and perhaps his job as the team physician — on the line for this, well, that takes guts. Really, he’s the guy who could have stopped the whole thing. The buck stops at his desk and nobody else’s.

I mean, it hasn’t exactly been a banner season for the team’s medical and training staff. I wouldn’t have blamed him for taking the easy way out and just say no. So way to go, Dr. Don Roberts — and good luck to you!

And by the way, Nic Batum is probably taking a bigger gamble than Roy. He’s playing in serious pain and the point of that right shoulder sits out there for everyone to use as a target. He’s taking a lot of hits on that thing and I think a reinjury is possible. Good luck to him, too.

Taking nothing away from Roy. There’s one thing that’s been overlooked and I give him a ton of credit for it — there are a lot of stars who would not play in that situation because they are risking embarrassment. After all, it had been a couple of weeks for Roy without playing and he was out of shape, physically. He probably knew he wasn’t going to be capable of playing at his best — yet he was willing to do that to help his team.

His mere presence meant so much — and for the people in that building Saturday afternoon, it was a real goose-bump moment.

Moving forward to tonight’s game — I have no idea what to expect because I don’t think that we’ve yet seen both these teams have a good game on the same night. It’s been one or the other so far. If both play well, I have a feeling that the Suns will win, but I’m not entirely convinced.

Folks, if Roy can find his way back to his groove in a hurry, the Blazers have a real shot. And I mean a shot at the NBA Finals. I know that sounds crazy but the West is so balanced right now — the injuries all over the conference have leveled the playing field. Just about any of the eight teams could get to the Finals with a few breaks. It’s one of those crazy seasons where it’s possible. Portland holds the season-series edge over most of the teams it could play.

Except Utah. And the Jazz are incredible. A lot of people give me a bad time about liking Jerry Sloan so much but can you see why? The Jazz system makes that team least vulnerable to major injury of any of the contenders. It’s a plug-and-play deal, with the team executing its flex offense and solid defense in the same manner, no matter who the players are. This team doesn’t rely totally on one-on-one stuff to score, the way the Blazers do. It gets shots from its disciplined, unselfish offense.

On defense, watch how hard it is to get a mismatch against the Jazz. Their defense doesn’t switch the way the Blazers always do. You can’t get them to switch. The defender on the screener jumps out and hedges the man with the ball long enough for his man to get back to him. The weak side is alert enough to help if it must, but most of the time, it’s not needed.

Meanwhile, the Phoenix Suns are getting the Blazers to switch on pick-and-rolls virtually any time they want. Over and over we see LaMarcus Aldridge or Marcus Camby exposed in space trying to defend Steve Nash. This must be dealt with or it’s going to be the difference in the series.

But in this conference, I’m not at all sure what’s going to happen. I know the Nuggets look to be in trouble, but I’d expect — if at all physically possible — George Karl might make a comeback on the Denver bench for Game 5. At least make an appearance at the arena. If that happens, I’d expect a big emotional lift for the Nuggets. It’s an incredible situation in the West with balance like maybe never before.

But I’d be shocked if the West winner has enough to win it all. Cleveland and Orlando have too much for them.

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So does good ball movement and the Phoenix Suns’ inability to make shots. But also give full credit to LaMarcus Aldridge — who seems to need the whole town jumping on his case in order to get himself going. And of course, credit the presence of Brandon Roy for opening the court up for everyone.

It was a bit of a weird game. Portland once again won the battle of fast break points, by a whopping 16-4. The Suns quit making open outside shots all of a sudden. The Blazers once went about eight minutes without a field goal. The Suns opened the game with an avalanche of backdoor cuts for dunks. Portland failed for almost the entire fourth quarter to take advantage of Steve Nash defending Nic Batum — I mean, call a timeout, run Batum down the the low post and throw him the ball. He wouldn’t need any post moves — just turn and throw it down in the little man’s grill. Man, a coach like Mike Dunleavy would have made sure whoever Nash tried to guard he’d have a long day — especially if it’s a guy who stands 6-8.

But anyway, it was great to see Roy back on the floor, just eight days after his knee surgery. Among other weirdness, by the way — Rudy Fernandez didn’t play in the second half, Martell Webster played only 12:42 in spite of giving his usual consistent, solid effort, Batum was called for retaliating to a nasty elbow to his right shoulder delivered by Amare Stoudemire that ought to earn Stoudemire a fine, Channing Frye and Jerryd Bayless were both called for flagrant fouls that weren’t all that flagrant and the Blazers outscored the Suns 17-5 in second-chance points. And oh yes, I continue to be amazed that Nate McMillan insists he’s telling his defenders not to switch on pick-and-rolls and they continue to do it time after time. It put them in so many vulnerable situations that it was amazing they overcame it to win.

This is why I love the NBA playoffs. Stuff happens — stuff you don’t expect. This was the kind of effort from Portland I wish we’d seen on Thursday night. Even if the team loses after giving this kind of effort, you can’t complain.

I do believe it’s anybody’s series if Roy is back to stay and can quickly round into shape. If he can bring his game up a little more, move just a hair better and stay safe, the Blazers have a shot at this thing. And oh yeah, Aldridge has to keep rolling those big numbers, too.

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