Rudy Fernandez… he’s too good to stay here for long
Here is a link to my contribution to the Blazer Blog – the “You be the General Manager” feature — over at Oregonlive.com, in which I make the case that you might just as well start shopping Rudy Fernandez right now. You’re not going to keep him — or keep him happy — around here for too long.
Folks, he averaged fewer than 26 minutes per game last season and with the return of Martell Webster and barring injuries to other players, it’s going to be difficult to give him increased playing time next season.
Yeah, you can talk all you want about playing him at the point, or moving Brandon Roy to the point, but Rudy’s position is off-guard. And that’s Roy’s spot. And I’m not sure it’s fair for a player of Rudy’s caliber to have to play somewhere else. On top of that, he left a huge contract in Europe to come here and play for the rookie payscale. He is going to eventually want and need the kind of role that shows what he’ll deserve in his next contract. Besides, there will be no cap room for him here when he’s ready for that next deal.
It’s just not going to happen here for him. He won’t grow as a player in a 25-minute-per-night role. He’s better than that. If he were 30 years old, it would be different, but he’s 24. So why not adjust to that idea? It’s fun having him here while it lasts, but keep your eyes open for the right trade. Delaying the whole thing might make the parting that much worse.
NBA, Trail Blazers | Dwight Jaynes | May 7, 2009
Brandon Roy, Dwight Jaynes, Oregonlive.com, Rudy Fernandez, You be the General Manager
Where you not given enough attention as a kid?
Dwight
I have come to the conclusion that Rudy is the best trade bait that we have. He is one of my favorite players and I would hate not having him here. However, he does need more playing time and really should start. And I don’t see him getting much playing time here in the future. Playing behind Brandon will only leave him with 15-20 minutes per game. Maybe even less with Martell back in the lineup. That said, I don’t believe the Blazers will part with him at this time. He is just too popular. This summer is going to be interesting.
Thanks for the great blog.
I’ll repost my comment from the Oregonian thread:
I think Dwight makes a good point.
Rudy is the 3rd best player on the team, he just happens to play the same position as the best player. Trading him isn’t a sign of failure it is a great use of assets. Pritchard has done a great job of buying assets. Rudy was what the 25th pick IIRC? Any doubt we could trade him for a top 5 pick now?
So far KP has done a great job acquiring assets that were undervalued for various reasons by their teams (I’m sure the Suns would like Sergio and Rudy a lot more than the $6 mil they got for them!). To become an all-time great GM he needs to start trading some of those assets for the ideal 9 man rotation. The Blazers now remind me a lot of the early 90s Sonics, they had a lot of talent but needed to make a few trades to get the right mix to start making deep play off runs (McKey for Shrempf, Gill for Hawkins, etc)
In your Oregonian blog piece you asked us fans to not get too attached to Rudy. It’s too late Dwight, he had us at hello. It’s too late…
Can Roy defend the small forwards in the NBA? If so, can’t we let Outlaw and Martell go and run with Roy getting a lot of small forward minutes?
There has to be some way…tell us how. The big three and Rudy, that is all I want. I love Batum too, but not like Rudy. There has to be a way…
Tho I see your point Dwight and follow the logic. I don’t agree that Rudy can not find a role with the Blazers he can be happy with. He has too much game and too many of the basketball intangibles for the coaches or organization to not find a role for him. Web and Outlaw have game; but neither has the feel for the game the way Rudy does. He has Web’s 3 point shot and Outlaw’s ability to get his own shot. You could lose both those two and still have what they bring in one guy (there’s your money Rudy). You get your minutes at small forward and backing up 2 guard. The Blazers get a creative, instinctive gunslinger style of player that will help balance, change the look and pace, of the sometimes too slow and deliberate game of Roy. Rudy can learn to slash, cut and move without the ball. Can Outlaw ? Can Web ever learn to pass and create his own shot or shots for others ? Why even try and teach either of those two what you already have in Rudy ?
I could see Rudy getting bored or disenchanted with the NBA and just going back to Spain for big money and to be the big star of the Spanish league. Or maybe KP gets one of those rare, too good to pass up, deals from another NBA team. Other than that I see Rudy in PDX for a very long time
Dwight, you do like to stir the pot ! You are creating quite a stir over there at Oregonlive. Good stuff. Keep it up dude. Don’t ever let the natives get too comfortable. A little stirring keeps the mix alive. Well I guess I better go earn my dollar for the day …
Dwight,
Did I hear Bayless mentioned there? Maybe I’m being a fan here, but in your financial and minutes equation for why Rudy must go, you mentioned some names that simply don’t match Rudy’s for value….
Outlaw and Bayless would be a good package for a small forward. Webster – who I am optimistic about – has missed this entire season due to injury. Outlaw is someone you suggest trading.
Your point is a good one, but if we prioritize Rudy highly enough – under Roy, but high – aren’t there still ways to keep him?
In the playoffs, teams often drop to a 7 or 8 man rotation. It’s hard to see a scenario where Rudy isn’t one of those guys. If necessary, I would suggest trading this team’s depth, a la Boston, and filling the other spots with low-paid veterans…in the long term. Now now.
Dwight, feel free to correct. I meant “not now” there at the end.
You touched on something I’ve been saying since midseason or before, and that is that the choice to me is really between Bayless and Rudy. You can’t give both major minute long term. Follow me here:
Assume all the SF minutes are taken by Batum and Webster/Outlaw, except for maybe 4 minutes a game of 3-guard lineup. That leave 100 minutes per game for guards.
Roy – 36 minutes
Some PG (Blake or other) – 32 minutes
3rd guard (backs up both spots) – 32 minutes
Now, I think it’s safe to say Rudy or Roy can’t play 32 minutes at PG in today’s NBA. But Rudy could be that ’3rd guard’ listed above. We play a Roy/Rudy backcourt for the 16 minutes a game that our PG is out, and Rudy gets another 12 minutes backing up Roy and 4 more in a 3 guard lineup.
So, the question becomes can you envision Bayless being a full-time point guard for 32 minutes a night? Personally, I think he’s MUCH more suited to the combo guard/3rd guard role described above.
So, in the end, we have 2 guys (Bayless and Rudy) who can both fill that 3rd guard role, but only need one of them. We should probably look to trade one of them for a guy who can supplant Blake at the PG spot.
No way could his body stand up to starters minutes over 82+ games. His roll is best suited to be a flame-thrower off the bench. It would be nice if Nate’s offence would use his talent to move without the ball more next year though.
What are you smoking Dwight?
One more thing to add
As much as minutes, we need to expand his role to utilize his skill. Basically we used him this year as a spot up 3 point shooter. Yes, he’s good at it, but he can do more.
Put the guy in position to make plays. He is an excellent passer with very good court vision. I’d like to see him with the ball in his hands more – especially when Roy is out. Use him as the ballhandler in pick and roll playes with Aldridge and Oden.
Rudy should stay. However, his minutes should increase to 30-35 per game. He should be our first option off the bench
I wouldn’t trade him. His court savvy as well as his ability to find the open man you can’t teach. He is also proven to be a quality defender…
I think a healthy webster and him would make up a potent second unit that would make defenses pay…
I think our greatest needs are for a starting point guard and a low post banger…
Rudy is a piece that can help you get a ring. You hold on to those pieces
It’s two weeks into a 6-month off-season for the only big league sport in town. The local sports columnist who’s been stirring things up in the quiet times for decades makes his move and the people react.
Trade Rudy? Sure, Dwight, we’ll get right on that.
You’re a smart guy DW but you missed this one a little. Correct me if I’m wrong but I thought the NBA didn’t have a cap? Not a hard cap. Can’t you go over the cap and then pay a tax? I’m not sure money is an issue with this team…isn’t it owned by Mr. Allen?
Bayless will never be any better than Telfair. Not sure why you have him in plans for this team…unless you want a PG who can’t shoot and just stands at the top of the key throwing the ball from wing to wing.
I wonder now if you watched some Blazer games this year? I’m not sure Outlaw should even be in the NBA. How can you even think he might be in the plans for this team?
Given all of that…you have a point about Rudy. He’s a 2. Blazer have a 2. But I think they can hold him for a few years. And you point out that he left a lot of money on the table in Europe. Could that be because he wants to win? Maybe a ring is important to him than money…unlike many other Blazers (see off season work programs…Kobe)
I like Rudy, but his current role is all he will ever be. If you can find another GM who loves him, then trade him. Fans will get over it and fall in love with the championships Portland will get by raiding someone’s lottery picks and starting point guard.
The reality is Rudy can’t create his own shot, is an average defender and rebounder, and when he isn’t hitting three pointers, he brings little to the floor. Did the guy make more than 20 two point baskets the entire season? It is three-point bomb or bust with this guy.
You don’t want to say race is why fans love Blake and Rudy and dislike TO and Oden, but if I took Rudy’s game 6 box score against Houston and put Outlaw’s name next to it, everyone would use that as further evidence TO needs to be traded. But if Rudy does it? Ah, forget about it. It was a fluke. Old news… never mind that everyone was screaming for Rudy to start that game over the offensive-challenged Batum, and he took it and laid an egg.
Everyone forgets that he disappeared for two months of the season, and for every nice dunk and step-back three pointer, he makes an ill-advised pass and takes a momentum-killing three-pointer that misses badly.
He is a great bench player, but not a starter nor a future star. Keep him, unless you find a GM who is as emotional as Blazer fans, then trade him and walk away smiling.
By the way, those who said before the season that Rudy was another Manu Ginobili should be banned from ever evaluating players ever again.
HAHAHAHAHA!!!! More “humor” from Bill. But the problem is, like many of these comments — it totally ignores the reality of what’s going on. Did you see the look on Rudy’s face when he was removed from several games this season? Do you actually see him playing small forward and point guard next season? Do you think he came over here to earn the chump change he’s making here compared to what he’d be getting in Europe? Do you think he’s going to like it when he gets home and everyone asks him why he played only 25 minutes a game? Do you think next season he’ll actually play more than that? And lastly, do you really think his popularity will keep him here?
Man, they all get traded. Clyde did. Mychal did. Jim Paxson did. Walton was let go. Lucas was traded. Terry Porter was let go…. come on, it’s the way it works. I didn’t say trade him now, I said inevitably it’s not going to last long so keep your eyes open for a deal.
But it’s just easier to argue that by saying — ah, Dwight’s just stirring it up. Or by saying, well come on — just play him 35 minutes a game! Sure, and sit Brandon Roy, OK?
Folks, it’s a business. Figure it out.
– Dwight
And JoJo — they CAN go over the cap to keep their own players. But Allen’s not going to go crazy again… he’s on record as saying that and it’s extremely difficult for teams to function being several million over the cap. Hell, he’s losing a boatload of money on this team as it is. In spite of assurances that they won’t let players walk that they want to keep, I don’t see money there for Rudy.
– Dwight
Without a doubt Rudy is my favorite player.
But Dwight is completely right. Realistically there is no way he stays here long-term, and there are at least 4 reasons.
First, unless he or Brandon plays out of position, he will not get the minutes, or touches that a player of his caliber will rightly demand. Rudy is going to need at least 35 minutes a game, and he’s going to need to have the ball in his hands a lot. That’s not going to happen with Roy here.
Second, certainly Rudy could probably play PG, maybe SF for brief stints, and certainly Roy could play SF, and maybe even PG, but neither of them are going reach their max potential playing out of position, and neither of them are going to want to.
Third, even if you could find Rudy enough minutes by using him at the 1, 2 and 3, AND not affect the quality of his game, he’s not going to be happy. You can see that he wants to be THE MAN. I’m not saying he’s selfish. He’s proven this season that he can be a team first guy. But he’s going to want a bigger role over the course of his career than being the second best SG on this team.
Fourth, Dwight is dead on, there are too many good young players on this team who are going to need max, or near-max deals. Some of them are going to have to go. Veterans take less money to play for contenders sometimes, not guys coming off their rookie deals.
I hope I’m wrong. I hope KP and Nate can figure out a way to keep Roy and Rudy on this team and happy, but it doesn’t seem realistic. I would like the Blazers to hold onto him this offseason, but after next season his value will likely be extremely high.
GRAHAM says:
May 7, 2009 at 11:43 am
No way could his body stand up to starters minutes over 82+ games.”
Graham – you might be right, but even if you are, do you think that Rudy realizes it? Because if he thinks he can starter minutes for 82 games, then he’s going to want to play starter minutes for 82 games.
You take Rudy off this team and you think there was alot of standing around last year ??
Oh my god..
To further Dwight’s argument. It won’t help things, it won’t help Rudy stay when the Blazers ship his best friend and more importantly, his assist man, out of town.
Sergio is unselfish to a fault, maybe it’s because his shooting stinks, but his season long goal seems to be setting Rudy up for a highlight oop, but nobody ever remembers who passed him the ball.
Blake and Roy sure as heck don’t know how to get him the ball enough.
So unless your bringing in a Chris Paul type of assist guy, I could potentially see trouble brewing. Even if he stays, forget about the alley oops because the fans want Sergio out of here, yesterday.
screw martell webster – i’d take rudy over him and outlaw any day of the week.
JoJo – let’s say Paul Allen is willing to sink is entire net worth into the Blazers salaries. It would be a terrible basketball decision.
If a team is $15 to $20 million over the salary cap they have almost zero flexibility. How is management supposed to make even the minor tweaks and adjustments season to season that are almost always needed?
And if we’ve got 4 or 5 players who are making max money, then we will have 2 or 3 players who aren’t going to get enough touches to put up max money stats. That means, in the event you need to make some roster changes, you’re not going to be able to deal those players for equal value, even if you find someone who is willing and able to take on their salary.
I do think you’re right about Outlaw though, he needs to go. Unfortunetly Nate, KP and Roy all seem to be extremely high on him…
DC Oregoian, No question rudy has skill, no question he he’ll want more time. But the 1st thing that he wants is to win. Starter minutes on the Clippers would be great for about 20 games, but after that, he’d be packing has bags and heading back to Spian where he can win, and be the man.
P.S. Have you seen him up close? His legs are as thin as a #2 pencil!
Play Rudy off the bench like they played John Havlecik. Like they played….Rudy. I only saw him mad one time — during the playoff game in Houston where he was red hot and Nate took him out. I was mad too. He was begging the coaches to let him win that game and they didn’t see it. But I did not see a disgruntled Rudy any other time in the season.
You’re saying you saw anger and frustration when they took him out?
I didn’t. I thought he accepted his role selflessly, often going out of his way to set up his teammates. His facial expressions could have told you a different story but I think you denigrate the guy by implying he wasn’t a total team player this year.
I’ve seen people say you should be the coach of the Blazers, but this is the part that proves how bad an idea that would be. You’d start trying to shop Rudy after the season he just had and threaten to put the entire team chemistry in the garbage heap? Are you kidding?
“I didn’t say trade him now, I said inevitably it’s not going to last long so keep your eyes open for a deal.”
“…I make the case that you might just as well start shopping Rudy Fernandez right now.”
So you’re not going to trade him, just shop him? Why? So he’ll get tired of being here and go back to Europe? I say you make sure he knows we want him in Portland. I’d tell him thanks for the year, have a good summer, and we were delighted with what he brought this year. Surprised and delighted.
Offers are made all the time but once you start shopping someone you can lose the player and screw up a good thing.
Rudy is a momentum-changing winner with courage. You don’t try and shop him, you don’t try and trade him. You try and clone him.
Another great idea, Bill — “play him like John Havlicek”!!!! sure…. except, as i keep asking, in lieu of whom? Roy? Webster/Batum/Outlaw? All the point guards? There are simply not enough minutes for him and he’s eventually going to get sick of not showing what he can do.
And this whole chemistry thing is killing me… Talent wins. Chemistry is great but not a necessity. How was the chemistry of the Rasheed/Sabonis/Pippen team that got to the WC finals? It was terrible. So what? The Yankees and A’s used to win with guys who hated each other. You think all the guys who played with Jordan loved him? Come on…
dj
I’ve been saying this since he came over… and just like you said, BRoy is too good to not be playing mostly 2 guard. Rudy and Roy either develop into Jordon/Pippen, or he has to get moved.
… and the problem with that is, Pippen could defend everybody, almost — from point guards to centers… Rudy is a decent defender, but not at the point or at the small forward… those guys are either too quick or too big for him… you can play him anywhere for a few minutes here and there… but long-term, folks — he and Roy play the same position and you simply can’t dodge that.
– Dwight
Rudy & Batum are about my two favorite players because of their BBIQs. I agree with Dwight’s point. One point I would like to add (hopefully I have not missed it above from someone) is that Rudy will never truly flourish under Nate’s offensive system no matter how many minutes he gets. Let’s just say I think Rudy is more valuable an asset than Nate.
Until Rudy says he’s upset with the role, I won’t believe it. Maybe that’s enough for him coming off the bench and playing that many minutes. Maybe he gets enough out of the dunk plays and 3s. He did manage to set the rookie record for 3s this season.
Let me try a different word than chemistry. It’s what we used to call team spirit. We all know this is a business but there is a human element and when a young man comes from another land, tries to learn your language and adapt to your country, and takes a huge pay-cut to help your team, and then does great, you don’t reward him by shopping him to the league,
especially when he can play in Europe for more. It doesn’t make business sense and it doesn’t make people sense.
Why? Because we’re trying to make this a place where free agents want to come because they’re treated right. It’s the human element.
And of course the situation won’t last. Nothing lasts. But that doesn’t mean we have to race in to screw it up.
Dwight, I honestly thought you were just stirring things up, but if you really want to start shopping Rudy right now, let me just change my response to, “My, I think that’s a very bad idea.”
It might be possible for Rudy to play sufficient minutes to keep him happy in a 6th man role…. and some players will play fewer minutes in order to play for a winner.
However, Rudy would start at 2 for about 20 teams in this league. Wait three years, as guys like Kobe and Vince Carter and Ray Allen and Rip Hamilton start to get old, that number goes up to 25. I don’t see him surpassing Roy or Wade or Joe Johnson or a healthy Ginobili (even though Manu doesn’t start, he’s a far better player than Michael Finley and gets most of the minute); but he could be playing in the All-Star game in a few years.
What if Rudy could get us the PG we’ve been coveting? What if the Nets won the lottery, decided to rebuild with a Ricky Rubio, and shipped us Devin Harris in exchange? Would you do that trade?
I expect that Rudy will be back to start next season–a trade could go down this summer, but it would have to be a big blockbuster. Longer term, I’m not sure.
What’s this “rudy needs to add bulk” stuff? Hogwash. his game is built on speed, his defense is built on speed.
Here is some reality
Your post screams: I need attention. I know let’s write another piece for another blog and state we should trade one of our most favorite and talented players. Oh yah and I will make sure they tell everyone about my blog…
Your line of thinking is the same sad mistake the blazers made years ago regarding Drexler/Jordan…you seriously don’t think that could have worked?
You got your attention. Your back in the spotlight…atleast for a day
Above comments: OregonLive.com, not The Oregonian
Rudy, if you’re over there in Spain and you hear talk of us shopping you around right now, don’t buy it. I’m going to get Dwight the address of someone who can explain that players don’t like to be treated this way. Sometimes loose talk is enough so please don’t take offense. We love you here.
Okay, let me get you the address of an all-pro player who felt dissed by management. It’s pro football but that’s a business too.
Darn, I’m sure I’m spelling his name right…Jay Cutler…but he’s not coming up in the Denver area. Oh well. Maybe he moved somewhere.
Dwight, I understand you would like Rudy to get more minutes, but Rudy himself said he wasn’t ready for the NBA schedule. He hit that rookie wall early and he hit it hard. Maybe in the future he will be ready to take on more minutes, but let’s go ahead and cross that bridge when we get to it.
Wow Dwight, I actually found something I disagree with you on.
First of all, you makes it sound like there won’t enough money here to sign Rudy. The blazers hold his bird rights, therefore they can sign him to any amount needed to keep him. I anticipate that they will. Second, whether he starts or not, he is going to be a intrical part of the team. I foresee a similar for him that Manu Ginoboli has in SA. Third, the dude is a blazer now. He is a blazer for life. The fans have bought into him, they love him. There is no way KP can just can go off and move him now. Well, he can, but with large amount of distraught fans.
Rudy is here to stay I’m afraid Dwight.
Man I can’t believe how naive some people are!!
The talk of minutes being consumed by Webster/Outlaw so there’s no room for Rudy–PLEASEE!! Portland would get rid of those two in a heartbeat to keep Fernandez.
The way I see it is Rudy will be the 6th man on this team playing 30 minutes per game. Kind of like Ginobili in San Antonio. Bayless will eventually be the likely starter at PG and Batum at SF, and Rudy will be the first sub off the bench coming in for either Bayless, Roy, or Batum depending on the matchups and foul trouble. Hell, if they could find almost 30 minutes for Outlaw off the bench, they will have no problems getting the same for Rudy, especially after they dump Travis.
And I don’t buy the idea that Rudy can’t play with Roy. I actually think that those two will be perfect with Fernandez playing off Roy and getting open shots.
And finally, there just aren’t enough smart, heady players like Fernandez to dump him away like that–especially not for the likes of Outlaw, Blake or Webster. As long as KP is running this team, you can count on Rudy being with Portland.
Rudy averaged 26 minutes per game his rookie year, and you claim that that is not enough for him.
However, Manu Ginobili, who many people compare Rudy to, has only averaged 27 minutes per game for his career…