My Trail Blazer season preview
I’ve put this off until just about the last possible minute. Back in the days when I was covering the team for The Oregonian I used to dread the start of the season and the previews I had to write. There was always a special section at the beginning of the season — like there will be Tuesday — and it was a ton of work getting everything ready.
There were a couple of years when Kerry Eggers made it a little bit more fun by throwing a couple of goofy questions into the mix of the individual Blazer player bios we’d always have to write. One season, I recall, he asked the players on the team this beauty: “Who is your favorite Stooge?” (as in “The Three Stooges”). Responses he got back from players were priceless, with the name of the stooge and lots of reasons to back it up.
Not as funny as Caldwell Jones one season, in the Blazer media guide, listing his favorite actor as Barney Rubble and his favorite seafood as salt water taffy, but funny stuff, just the same.
OK, as you see, I’m still putting off the season preview. I think it’s because after all these years, I realize how futile it is to try to predict the results of sporting events. Analyzing just one game — like Tuesday night’s opener at Los Angeles — is rough, but trying to predict an entire season is impossible.
But here goes. The most unusual thing about this team is its makeup. The bench has always been important to Nate McMillan and this season the team finds itself in a weird situation: its second unit has more experience playing together than a good many starting units around the league. I mentioned this to McMillan and he responded quickly, “More experience playing together than OUR starting unit,” he said.
I don’t remember that being the case with many Blazer teams in the past. And just to show you how important McMillan sees the bench, consider this: his most-talked-about move with the starting lineup — using Nicolas Batum at small forward — is a decision based a lot on what he wants out of his second unit. Sure, Travis Outlaw is good enough to start, but McMillan prefers him with the second group.
There are many coaches who don’t worry too much about creating an entire second group. They would like three or four subs and they quietly mix them in with their starters — not platooning the way the Blazers do. I like McMillan’s style because it allows more players to play and keeps the starters’ minutes down throughout a long season. Over a player’s career, that’s a very valuable thing. He might ultimately buy some of those guys an extra season in the league.
As far as the starting unit goes, all the pieces are there. Sure, an experienced small forward who will make open shots would be valuable, but when Martell Webster returns from injury he’ll either fill that role or the team will be in position to make a pretty good trade for one.
Brandon Roy, Greg Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge provide a solid foundation for a championship team. All have all-star potential and I wouldn’t be surprised at some point to see all three represent this country on the national team. They are that good. Rudy Fernandez has star potential off the bench and Joel Przybilla will be the best backup center in the league.
This is a talented team that just needs to learn to play together and defend a little better. I don’t anticipate that will take as long as a lot of people think. It’s a smart group that wants to learn and wants to get better. That will speed the process a lot. And I’m not one of those people who values experience over talent. I was here in 1977 to watch a team full of players with virtually no playoff experience go all the way to an NBA championship.
The most interesting aspect of the season will be Oden’s rate of improvement. It’s hard to predict how fast he’ll pick things up and how quickly he’ll regain his explosiveness. The fortunate thing for him is that his teammates are talented enough that the team will win a lot of games without needing a huge contribution from Oden. They’ll need him to stay on the floor (not get hurt and not constantly foul out), grab some rebounds, be a defensive presence and score once in a while.
Even though the most undeveloped part of Oden’s game is his offense, he’s going to be a factor because — unlike a lot of big men who aren’t natural scorers — he is so powerful you just have to double team him. In only very rare cases is one man going to keep him from bulling his way to the basket. Double teams on Oden mean open shots for others.
There aren’t going to be too many centers in the league who can handle him, at the talent level he is right now. Certainly his battles with Andrew Bynum will at some point be classics. But if Oden can climb up to the next level — where he figures out how to get himself enough range on defense to affect a few more shots, runs the floor a little better and develops a well-rounded offensive game (he’s capable of all these things) the Blazers will be ready to take their season into June.
You know what Roy can do. Everyone in the league does. He’s a solid all-star for years to come. Not so many know Aldridge but it won’t take long this season. I suspect he’ll be listed on all the “most underrated” lists this season and on his way to all-star status soon.
How good will they be as a team? I think playoffs for sure. They’re simply too talented not to be among the top eight teams in the West. If Oden finds himself by the end of the season and everyone stays healthy, they’re going to be a factor in the playoffs.
Don’t forget, this is a team that knows how to play the Lakers and the Jazz. The Blazers gave both those division champs fits last season and I expect they’ll do it again. So, in summary — I think Portland battles Utah for the division title right to the end. And shocks everyone by winning it. I know nobody’s saying that, but I just honestly believe they have more overall talent than the Jazz.
One more thing: This is a season that’s probably the most anticipated in the team’s history. Several factors play into that but I could make a case that the way modern-day sports are presented makes it possible that if the team plays well, Blazermania will hit an all-time peak. I know old-timers will say that sounds ridiculous but the world is so different now. So many more people are exposed to the team than ever before because the arena is much bigger than in the old days and the number of games on free television has exploded.
Man, in 1977 people hung by their radios and listened to games but there were only about 20 games a season on television and there was no way you could connect with the team the way you do now. There was no sports radio, either, to turn the hype level up. These days, everything is magnified. With economic times tough, people are looking for something to make them feel better — to put a smile on their face, if only for a couple of hours.
The Blazers are going to do that this year.
NBA, Trail Blazers | Dwight Jaynes | October 27, 2008
Brandon Roy, Dwight Jaynes, Greg Oden, LaMarcus Aldridge, Los Angeles Lakers, Nate McMillan, NBA, Portland Trail Blazers, Rudy Fernandez, season preview, Utah Jazz
So in a roundabout way you’re really predicting they could be somewhere in the top 4? In the west? Bold. I like it.
Mr. “Don’t Pressure the Kids” calls Blazers for the Win?!?!
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Blazers = smile! I have been thinking that all summer.
Thanks for the preview, Dwight! Go Blazers!
Nice work Dwight. I’ve read your work since the good ol’ afternoon Journal. It’s going to be a slow start most likely for these kids, but when they catch their stride I think they will get that swagger that the early 90′s Blazers teams had where they expect to win every game.
I am a Jazz fan, and I am starting to really look forward to the battles we will have with Portland. You guys have assembled a dynamite team with likeable, talented, stars. I also think you have an awesome coach, and I like the platooning he will do. I hate to root against ya’ll but have too, we are fighting for the NorthWest here. With that being said, I am looking forward to hating your team for years.
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Great preview!! I think you really hit the nail on the head with your Blazermania comments. A lot of the Blazer predictions I’ve read really haven’t taken into account how difficult it will be for opposing teams to come into the Rose Garden and win games. After all we did nearly sell out a pre-season game (the opener) and people are once again excited about coming to cheer for their team. Welcome back to Rip City, its gonna be a fun year!
Hello, Dwight and all great blazers fans. Although I am from Macao, but I spent all my passion for supporting my favorite team Portland Trailblazers for years (since my favorite Sabonis.) Thanks Dwight, he have done a great prediction for us. My heartbeat has been at maxium speed looking for our first season game against L.A., after watching the national explosion of Rudy in this summer. “BEAT LA!!!!” tomorrow.
Mr. Jaynes, we think alike. I’ve been saying for a month now that we’ll win the division. I’m glad you’re thinking the same way.
Roy and Aldridge are obviously stars. Fernandez is going to become Ginobili 2.0 (though hopefully I won’t want to hit him with my car like I do Manu) and Oden is simply too large not to dominate. The man is the missing link in Darwin’s theory. An absolute monster. When he regains his athleticism and develops his offensive game, Portland will win a ring. Hopefully that happens sooner than later.
I also agree with your point on the number of people emotionally invested in this team. It’s crazy. Everyone loves these guys. Reads blogs about the team. Listens to the radio. Hell, me and my roommates watched the damn Center Court Radio show on CSN tonight. Try telling us we’re not part of this team. Try telling that to this city. It’s going to get nuts in Rose City very soon.
Very well done. And we all know you are not a subjective homer so I don’t have to take your praise with a grain of salt.
I have been around major league sports most of my life. I grew up in San Franciso; playing football at Lincoln High School with Mike Holmgren. (He was a year behind me in high school.) I grew up sneaking into 49er games at Kezar Stadium and sold sodas at Candlestick Park during my teenage summers. I can only think of one sports team in my lifetime that generated the passion and excitement this Blazer team already has. And that was the Joe Montana-led team that won Super Bowl XVI (16)! The entire City of San Francisco went crazy when that happened. And I would dearly love to see this young team defy some odds and bring that level of excitement to this town. So lets’s GO BLAZERS!
Sign me a devoted fan and season ticket holder. The Rose Garden will ROCK this winter!
I can’t believe that everyone has agreed with you so far… I’m mean come on, do we all want a good team so bad that we can’t see through the excitement to analyze the ability of the team?
I was here for the championship too; I grew up with the Blazers and Blazermania.
Okay, all kidding aside. Most of the local radio sports jocks and Blazer broadcasters have been too conservative in my opinion. It’s great to hear someone who know basketball as well as I do make a reasonable prediction.
This is a smart team, with a team focus and a lot of talent. there’s no excuse for not winning their division this year. Sure the Jazz and Nuggets are good, but they don’t have near the overall talent and depth. McMillian, Roy, and (even) Fernandez should bring enough “coolness” to help the youngsters through the tough 82 game, long season.
It’s time for the Blazers to let the rest of the NBA know who they are. Here’s to a great season of N-B-A basketball!