Initial thoughts about the Portland-Houston series
Yes, I believe I’m about the only guy in town who believes the Blazers have an edge in this series. If you’d only forget about the regular-season games between these teams, you’d be able to visualize it a little better.
And that’s what you have to do. The playoffs are a different animal, as you’ll see soon enough. And as far as I’m concerned, you can talk about experience all you want, but it’s not as if there’s a locker room full of playoff success over on Houston’s side. Portland, from top to bottom, has better players than the Rockets. In a seven-game series, that’s going to show.
Just a few early thoughts about this matchup:
– This will be a very physical series. The Blazers are capable of wearing Yao Ming down. He’s going to have a couple of very big and strong defenders laying on him the whole series. And if the Blazers, with that size, choose to play in front of him — which he doesn’t handle well — he’s going to have some frustration getting his hands on the ball.
– The Rockets are going to be very physical with Brandon Roy. Trust me, if he’s tired now, just wait until Houston gets done with him. Ron Artest isn’t even close to as good on defense as he used to be, but he’s super strong and will try to manhandle Roy.
– Portland needs to get good shots and push the ball when it can. The Rockets are not capable of rolling up a lot of points. They don’t have a single player on their roster who can just go get his own shot the way Roy can. They have to keep a lid on the tempo and keep Roy from going off.
– Houston has nobody who can guard LaMarcus Aldridge.
– Rick Adelman is very tough in playoff series, when he can zero in on an opponent’s weaknesses. He’s got a tiny bit of Dick Motta in him — if he finds something that works against you, he’ll run it 100 times in a row until you stop it.
– The Blazers have improved through the course of the long season as much or more than any other team in the league. This isn’t the same Portland team we saw even a month ago. The Blazers are getting better and better the longer they play.
– It’s going to be difficult for Portland to get to the basket. Houston will defend the 3s and the basket area and allow you the medium-range jumpers. The Blazers better not be too anxious to take those shots.
– The best thing about having homecourt advantage is that if you slip up and lose a home game, you have to win only one on the road to regain the homecourt advantage. If Houston loses one at home, it has to win twice up here — and good luck with that.
– It’s been a few years since you’ve seen playoff games, Blazer fans. Remember this — everyone always thinks the team that won the last game is going to win it all. People jump on and off the bandwagon in a hurry. But it’s a long series and you can’t overreact, either way, after just a game or two. Goofy and unpredictable things almost always happen. Luck will play a part somewhere along the way, you can count on it.
NBA, Trail Blazers | Dwight Jaynes | April 16, 2009
Brandon Roy, Dwight Jaynes, Houston Rockets, Portland Trail Blazers, Rick Adelman, Ron Artest, Yao Ming
Can’t wait, Blazers back in the playoffs!! Thanks for the great writing and blog, first thing I read every morning. Keep up the good work and go Blazers!
Hope you’re right, Dwight! But… over the last five years, by my count Houston’s record against Portland is 14-4. The Blazers have lost 10 of their last 11 in Houston. They’ve come a long way recently, but have they come far enough?
Jack Bog: The Blazers’ record against Houston even as recently as a year ago is completely irrelevant, let alone looking at the past five years and trying to draw some sort of conclusion from it.
I’m not in town, I’m in Peru, but I agree with your “from top to bottom” Po is better than Ho. I’d emphasize the word “bottom.” We saw last night how good the 2nd unit can be.
The defense of Rudy is what stands out for me–watch him away from the ball–his ability to anticipatate what’s going to happen next is uncanny. I agree, unfortunately, with your view that he’s fragile–he’s got to hit the weight room in the off season.
Jack — I’m not even sure the games between Houston and Portland that happened early in the season reflect much about the two teams, because Portland has improved so much. But certainly, games that happened last season and prior to that have no correlation to what happens this year. THESE players haven’t lost all those games the last five years.
– Dwight
Houston was the team I hoped we wouldn’t face. I sure hope you are right!
I really hope you are right Dwight and I am wrong but I just don’t like the Artest/Battier beat down on Roy. He is the driver of the bus so to speak. If the driver is crippled and can’t make it up the stairs to the driver’s seat you have to have a different driver….do we have that driver for a 7 game series? I hope so.
PS I am hung over sorry about the babbling of the driver. Too much celebration last night.
Home court will be big in this series. Young players almost always play much better at home than they do on the road. Another edge that Portland has that hasn’t really been mentioned is that the Blazers make people pay dearly when they double Brandon Roy. Rudy has taken his game up a level or two since the all-star break. He, Outlaw and Blake will kill teams from three point range when Roy is being doubled. Also, those guys have shown that they are not just three point shooters. Rudy is creating off of the dribble more often and it’s making his teammates better. I think Joel and Greg together will overcome Yao. Greg has to assert himself offensively against smaller defenders because they need points in the paint. If the blazers can get 10 points a game from him off of the bench, it will create a huge advantage IMO. Portland in 6 is my prediction. I would “F’ing love it” if the blazers get past the Rockets and play the Lakers in round 2.
Houston has nobody to guard LaMarcus? Chuck Hayes and Carl Landry– while they aren’t the offensive threats that Luis Scola is– are OUTSTANDING defenders. Scola isn’t too bad himself.
by the way, I still think its Blazers in 7 but this is the worst possible matchup– dangit New Orleans, did you have to blow that Spurs game?!
Well Dwight, you got the matchup you wanted.
Forgive me if I’m not excited about Portland’s chances.
Maybe, if the Blazers had played another home game against Houston recently (and done well) I’d feel more confident, but all we’ve got to go on is the last two games that the Rockets handled Portland down there in “the armpit of America” A few (bad) memories remain from those games
Yao got Joel and Greg into foul trouble
Scola outplayed Aldridge
Roy was neutralized by Battier/Artest
Blake was blown by, by Brooks
Need I go on?
I suspect that in 2 weeks we’ll all be wishing that Pritchard had made a deal to bring in an experienced veteran big man and PG at the trading deadline
If Portland shoots the lights out from behind the 3 point line (like last night) they’ll win this series. But if they struggle getting the long ball to drop, it will be “1 round and out”
How do you like those odds? Do you feel lucky?
Hey Dwight,
You’re not the only guy in town who thinks that Portland has an edge on Houston. Some time back when we were discussing which team would be a good matchup for Portland in the first round, I had listed the efficiency differential of all the Western Conference teams, and Portland was second best in the Conference (behind only the Lakers), and that still holds true today (maybe even more so, since the last few games have marginally improved that differential). So, expect Portland to win the first round, and then the real test comes in the second round when we face the Lakers. If we get past that, going to the Finals is completely probable.
Cheers,
mmm
Only guy in town who thinks we have an edge in the series? I think the WHOLE town sees the edge…it’s called homecourt advantage
Were gonna win this series because Roy and LA’s supporting cast is ready for the challenge. It will be highly physical and yes they will try and double our stars…However, our supporting cast is ready to make them pay for those double teams
Joel Pryzibilla…this guy has taught the rest of the team what it means to be tough. He leads by example, and he walks the walk. He has helped this whole team realize the importance of being tough, yet keeping our poise. I hope when this is all said and done that he will be recognized as a key piece in transforming our team into a playoff contender and eventual champion
I do believe we are ready to rise
Dwight,
You say the Rockets have no on who can guard LaMarcus, hmmm, Chuck Hayes gave him nothing but trouble in the last game, and let’s face we have no one who can guard Yao when he’s on his game.
This series is going to be something of a rude awakening for the young Blazers possibly.
Then again a rude awakening is probably not the worst thing, since it might illustrate for KP that he needs to finally do some roster consolidation.
“…everyone always thinks the team that won the last game is going to win it all.”
this is true in the regular season, as people come in here and flame our coaches and players after almost every loss. In the playoffs, the bandwagon is 10x as big. Great comment Dwight.