How Rudy’s minutes would be affected by the arrival of Hedo Turkoglu
People have asked about this and I think the best way to look at it is to compare the situation to last season.
At small forward last season, Portland used Nic Batum as the starter and he averaged 18.4 minutes per game. Rudy Fernandez, Travis Outlaw and Brandon Roy all served time at small forward behind him. Outlaw averaged 27.7 minutes per game but a lot of that time was at power forward, not small forward.
If Turkoglu comes to Portland at upwards of $9 million per season, you can expect the team to use him at least 36 minutes a game. A small portion of that time could come at power forward, of course. But the other problem for Rudy is that the Blazers are going to want playing time for their backup small forward(s) — either a developing Batum, who simply cannot ride the pines with his defensive skills, or Martell Webster, who, if he’s healthy is going to be a big help with his outside shooting. Or both.
This, of course, is assuming Outlaw is traded. It’s possible two small forwards could be dealt, but even if that’s the case, the remaining one — either Webster or Batum — is going to need plenty of playing time in a backup role.
At point guard, the same problem exists. If Andre Miller or Kirk Hinrich arrives, they’re going to play more than the 31.7 minutes per game Blake played last year. And Sergio Rodriguez, the backup point guard last season, averaged 15.3 minutes. You’d want Jerryd Bayless or Blake, whoever survives the deal that will bring Hinrich or Miller, to get at least 15 minutes a game behind the starter. I think this will bite into the number of minutes Roy will play at the point.
Rudy got 25 minutes a night last year mainly because coach Nate McMillan wasn’t sold on his backup point guard and also because of the injury to Webster. That opened playing time that won’t be there this season — unless there’s an injury, which you don’t really want to plan on or hope for.
Brandon Roy averaged 37.2 minutes and it would be smart to cut that back some, in the interest of Roy’s long-term health. But it won’t be cut back much and even if it’s down to 35 minutes, that still leaves only 13 for Rudy behind him.
The Portland lineup featuring Fernandez that was used most often last season was, according to 82games.com, the one that featured him at off-guard, along with Blake at the point and Roy at small forward. I wouldn’t expect Roy — or Rudy — to log a lot of minutes at small forward this season with Hedo and Webster and/or Batum sucking up those minutes.
And moving forward, even 25 minutes per game isn’t going to placate Rudy. That’s not to paint him as a complainer, either. It’s just that he’s better than that. He’s a starting off-guard in the NBA and eventually that’s what he’s going to want to be. I don’t blame him. And I think trading him is eventually going to be the right thing to do for both parties. That’s not saying do it right now, either. My stance has been consistent — he’s going to have to be dealt at some point, so keep your eyes open and do it when it makes sense. Don’t wait until you’re backed into a corner.
Accepting bench roles and limited minutes in the NBA is for seasoned veterans who have already made the big bucks. Young players want to establish their worth and get into the big contracts. It’s just the way it works.
In summary, acquiring a prime free agent at point guard and small forward would solidify Portland’s rotation to a great degree. I don’t think you’d see Roy playing as many positions and it’s presumed the rotation would be more defined and probably shorter.
By the way, I promise to do my best to make this the last post on this subject for a long time.
NBA, Trail Blazers | Dwight Jaynes | July 2, 2009
Andre Miller, Brandon Roy, Dwight Jaynes, Kirk Hinrich, Martell Webster, NBA, Nic Batum, Portland Trail Blazers, Rudy Fernandez, Steve Blake
I agree with you, but I don’t think that now is the right time to trade Rudy. Heck, I don’t think I’d trade Rudy straight up for Hedo right now. I know that’s not the question, but if this signing is going to effectively squeeze Rudy out…it’s not worth it to me.
Hedo is the more complete player right now, but the age difference is a big factor. Rudy is the same age as Roy, LMA, Oden, etc…and he’s electric. There’s just a little something different about the guy that tells me he’s going to be a star…even if it will be at the 2 guard position. The Blazers have all the leverage here. Do what you’ve got to do to get the guy 28 mins/game. He’ll improve his game in his second season, thus raising his trade value. I think letting him go now would be a huge mistake.
I would be content moving forward with Blake/Bayless in the backcourt IF we can experiment with the lineup of: Rudy, Roy, Hedo, LMA, and Oden. I believe that Rudy can stay in front of opposing PG’s about as well as Blake, and the offensive possibilities of that lineup are scary. This is of course assuming that Nate can suddenly become a little more creative…and Roy agrees to pass the rock off the pick and roll.
Dwight — I think your assessment of the situation is spot on; especially when it comes to the pay and minutes equation.
I know you touched upon the fact that ESPN was pointing out the side pick and roll, but maybe missing from the analysis is the fact that Hedo is an extremely skilled ‘point forward’.
Maybe this is part of Pritch’s game plan and part of the statistical money ball stuff, which I don’t usually care to understand. But, when you think about it, many of the championship teams over the past 30 years or so have featured a ‘point forward’ (top tier examples, Bird, Pippen, Magic Johnson, lesser example, Odom).
Perhaps it’s management’s thinking that if they go after Hedo, maybe the hunt for a point guard becomes less important. That’s because he could run the point, with a potent line up of Roy, Rudy, Oden and Aldridge.
Within that line up, Roy and Hedo could definately switch back and forth at point, so Portland would have the option of the pick and pop that Aldridge is so skilled at, the slashing of Roy, the inside game of Oden, with Rudy and Hedo causing all sorts of problems beyond the arc.
I’m not suggesting this would the the starting lineup necessarily, but that’d give most teams in the league all sorts of matchup issues. I could see that line up killing the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals.
Wishful thinking, I know … but I’m beginning to see why PDX is making the full court press on Hedo now.
The Blazers simply have too many talented players at the 2/3 position – something has to give. The Blazers need to decide who they want to keep and what their roles will be.
Will Martell actually be healthy next year, or is there more to the story? If there are serious questions about his health, KP might be more inclined to hold on to Rudy.
Batum needs more minutes! I think he has more potential upside than anyone on the team except Roy. Seriously. Heck, play Hedo at the point and have Batum defend the other teams PG. You know Hedo is going to play PG in crunch time, so why not most of the time?
Rudy will always be a backup on this team. He can’t play point, doesn’t play defense, and doesn’t have the size to match up against many at the SF position. Oh yeah, and his game is overrated. Reminds me of the Drazen Petrovic situation years ago (although he did blossom while in NJ).
If KP is nearly as smart as people think he is why not package Outlaw, Rudy, and Blake/Bayless for either Chris Paul or Devin Harris? This is what they should do before signing Hedo, and I think that they could get one of the two.
PS – KP, please don’t bring Andre Miller here. His horrible outside shooting will only make it easier to double team Roy. We can do better.
I agree that we have a real logjam at several positions that obtaining Hedo only exacerbates. And of course Fernandez wants to play more. But does he really deserve to? in 25 minutes he averages 10 points, 2 assists and 3 rebounds. Not exactly mindblowing numbers. He had one great game in the playoffs but otherwise wasn’t great there either. I like Fernandez but he hasn’t shown that he deserves to start whether he thinks so or not.
I like what Morgan says. I’d like to see Rudy play point for the reasons mentioned. I also think Rudy’s D is as good as his O because what makes him good at both is his anticipation and I believe that asset will allow him to defend the speedier PGs. My two cents. What the hell do any of us on a blog really know? Isn’t it fun to speculate though!
I kinda like the Turk signing and a solid/aging point guard, here’s why…
Our “window” only moved up a year or two which is still at least a year away….sure we’d like to win the whole thing next year but that’s pretty unlikely,
Isn’t this the line up we’re maturing?
bayless/roy/batum/lma/Oden
We all know that ROY/LMA/GO aren’t getting traded and they’re all saying Bayless is the future at the point, they’re not letting Batum go either…..
There is enough age difference between roy/lma and oden/bayless/batum, when Roy/lma are at the end of their prime but still effective, Bayless/Batum/Oden “should” be ready to take over. These guys we’re talking about now are stop gaps until bayless/batum shake the rookie label, they’re both very young.
I could see blake/outlaw being packaged for a veteran PF banger to round out the second team.
Rudy…yeah needs to be moved while he’s worth the most.
I realize we all like Rudy as a person, but to say he can stay in front of PG is insane! He struggles to even stay with SG’s!
I think Nic Batum’s minutes will take the biggest hit next season. He was sort of the starter by default. Martel was out all season and Travis Outlaw’s inept perimeter defense combined with Steve Blake was putting to much pressure on Brandon Roy who also had to carry the team offensively.
As we saw in the playoffs Nate favored a more offensive potent line up with Rudy taking Batum’s minutes.
So unless Martel returns to his old form I think Rudy could get a lot of the SF minutes.
We’re trying to free up Brandon more and one way is to stretch the defense. How about a few minutes for Rudy in a small line-up of LA at center, Hedo, Brandon, Rudy, and a point guard. You don’t want to wear out Joel either with Oden still dealing with foul issues, and I’d love to see Hedo feeding LaMarcus from the side, with Rudy out at the 3-point line.
Rudy set the rookie record for 3s. He’s been here one year and he has an NBA record. You want to trade that away? Especially if we get another point guard like Miller who doesn’t exactly light it up from outside.
My thought on the Rudy(PG)-Roy(SG)-Hedo-LMA-Oden lineup is during crunch time, the last five minutes of a game where so many NBA games are won and lost. Most regular minutes it’d be Blake/Bayless/?(PG). I like the idea of keeping Blake–he’s a winner, despite being slower than a lot of PGs.
I like that crunch time lineup a whole lot and I think Rudy’s D is greatly underestimated–he anticipates well and has quick hands. I admit that I like the way Rudy plays–he is high energy.
I didn’t say that he could stay in front of the quick pointguards…I simply said that he can stay in front of PG’s as well as Blake. I realize that this isn’t saying much, but don’t misquote me.
If we believe in Bayless as the blazer brass seems to, then he can take his turn at trying to defending the Tony Parker’s, CP3′s, D.Williams, Brooks, etc…but you have to remember that matchup problems come on both ends of the floor. You put out a linup in crunch time of Rudy, Roy, Hedo, LMA, and Oden…and the other team has problems. The goal is to outscore the opponant ultimately, let’s keep that in mind. (Nate)
A couple other possibilities.
1) Rudy and Outlaw for, say, Devin Harris looks nice. Whether the Nets would go for it; I dunno–but a guard rotation of Rudy, Lee, and Alston is certainly doable.
2) Having Hedo at the 3 and Roy at the 2 makes Bayless as the starting 1 a lot more reasonable–assuming Bayless improves his PG skills to passable. Many successful teams–including the Jordan/Pippen Bulls, used the dual-good-passing-wing configuration. In this configuration, Bayless doesn’t need to know how to run the halfcourt offense; there are two guys who can do that well. He just needs to bring the ball up the floor, guard the other team’s PG, etc. If he improves his off-ball game, which he did reasonably well in college, bonus.
3) Many assume Batum is a 3 going forward–because he played small forward primarily in his rookie year. But that’s where the minutes were due to Martell’s injury. Batum was a shooting guard in Europe, and I think long-term, especially if Rudy is traded, that’s his role here. He was more often abused by big wings than by quick ones; another reason Houston was a bad matchup for Portland–Batum couldn’t handle either Artest or Battier.
Turkoglu won’t, or shouldn’t, play 36 minutes. If 37.2 minutes is too many for Roy, then “at least” 36 is too many for the 30 year old with the big conract.
I’m nitpicking. 34 would be pretty reasonably.
My only problem with Turko, aside from age and $, is that in sort of ends the experiment with our young 3′s. I know it’s not smart to pass on a good 3 just to satisfy academic curiosity, but it bothers me all the same. If Martell were healthy and playing like it LOOKED like he would play going into last year, we wouldn’t be looking for a 3. And THAT is where the problem with Rudy’s minutes comes in. If we knew what we had in Martell, we could make educated decisions, and possibly those decisions would free up enough minutes for Rudy.
By the way, anyone who would play Bayless and get rid of Rudy in the process has their priorities all jacked up.
WHICH IS IT DWIGHT???????
But FIRST, anybody who thinks Rudy can defend point guards in this league automatically loses all credibility when it comes to analyzing basketball. That’s one of the most ludicrous things i’ve heard in a while.
Second, I agree with Dwight’s assesment of the team’s potential rotation on paper, but I think Playing time will have to be earned. So if Rudy wants more opportunity he’s going to have to make his case on the court. Which means somebody else gets squeezed down to the end of the bench, perhaps Webster (still recovering from injury) or Batum (still very young).
Third, WHICH IS IT DWIGHT? Is Rudy a starting shooting guard in this league or not? You contradicted yourself in the last couple posts. Personally, I don’t think he’s a legit starting SG, maybe for a non-playoff team he can fill a void, but for a serious contender – no way. Rudy’s a bad defender, too skinny, not quick enough or strong enough. He has trouble creating his own shot, needs help by coming off screens – best as a spot up shooter, not good with pull-ups in 1-on-1 situations. This may surprise some people who stereotype players by race or other factors, but he NEEDS TO WORK ON BALL HANDLING. He had trouble against full court pressure, especially smaller, quicker guards – also it’s why he can’t create his own shot or effectively get into the paint or drive the lane. What Blazer games do you guys watch?
I love Rudy, want him to be a Blazer, but you have to be able to honestly break down a players skill set and abilities. Too many Portland fans are front-runners and fair-weather followers who put too much value on their own misinformed opinions. They are drunk off the Rudy juice. The question is why? hmmmm………..(cough) he’s white….(cough,cough)
Kevin wrote:
I don’t think he’s a legit starting SG, maybe for a non-playoff team he can fill a void, but for a serious contender – no way. Rudy’s a bad defender, too skinny, not quick enough or strong enough. He has trouble creating his own shot, needs help by coming off screens – best as a spot up shooter, not good with pull-ups in 1-on-1 situations. This may surprise some people who stereotype players by race or other factors, but he NEEDS TO WORK ON BALL HANDLING. He had trouble against full court pressure, especially smaller, quicker guards – also it’s why he can’t create his own shot or effectively get into the paint or drive the lane. What Blazer games do you guys watch?
I think Rudy is already among the top 20 SGs in the league, with top 10 potential. Trouble is, Brandon Roy is top 3.
What is Rudy’s ceiling? A realistic guess might be a Richard Hamilton or a Ray Allen, both of whom have similar flaws. Obviously, Rudy needs to work on ballhandling more; but as a SG, I’m not sure handling ball pressure coming up court is a big concern. Ray Allen isn’t exactly Brandon Roy with the basketball easier; and Rudy is quicker than the aging Allen.
He’s already a better outside shot than Rip Hamilton, who gets open for the catch-and-pop as well as anyone in this league.
Rudy’s ultimate ceiling? Probably Reggie Miller, who also couldn’t guard anybody, and was skinny as a rail. The difference is that Reggie could put the ball on the floor; but Reggie combined the best attributes of Rip’s game–a genius at getting open and a quick release on the catch-and-shoot–with Ray Allen’s deadly accuracy from deep.
Not a bad guy to have on the roster.
The trouble with Rudy, is he’s at his best with a creative playmaker. Roy and Hedo both are good passers for their position, but are generally looking to score. Blake and Bayless are not creative passers. The one creative passer the Blazers did have–Sergio–is now gone.
Rudy would be GREAT next to a Chris Paul. The Hornets don’t have much we need, though…
With the way B-Roy looked at the end of the season I would like to see him only play 30 minutes… or even a little less during the regular season. Plus with Turk in the game you can have 2 shooting gaurds on the floor.
For the Blazer’s sake let’s hope Hedo doesn’t take Rudy’s minutes. Assuming Hedo signs with the Blazers, their success will be very much dependent on whose minutes Hedo takes. Here’s the if Hedo takes whose minutes game:
1. If Hedo takes up Rudy’s minutes then there is a very high probability that team wins will be less than this year.
2. If Hedo takes Travis’s minutes then team wins have a strong chance of improving
3. If Hedo takes Nick’s minutes then there shouldn’t be much difference in team wins.
Talent wise, here’s the WP48 equation: Rudy = 0.129 > Nick = 0.116 > Hedo = 0.101 > Travis = 0.043
Dwight –
There’s no rule that a team must have 1 player at each position on the court at all times. Nothing would stop the Blazers from working in a smaller/bigger lineup and inserting Rudy on the floor.
I assume you know this, but you cannot solely consider the set lineups in which the Blazers had from last year
I doubt McMillan wil ever turn Rudy loose. He did not turn Sergio loose, not sure why Blazers went to all that trouble to sign those two Spaniards and have a coach that reigns them in. If i was Rudy i would be out of here. like Sergio.
I think Rick A would love to have a Rudy.
Nate didn’t keep Rudy on a short leash. There’s a big difference between Sergio and Rudy–Rudy can play NBA ball. The issue with Rudy is that he plays behind Brandon Roy, but is good enough to start for most NBA teams.
If you live by stats, you will never get the most bang for your buck. Rudy,s scoring is fully controlled by who he is on the floor with. If Blake is on the floor, he often freezes Rudy out of the play. How many times last year, did you see Rudy bust loose from the pack, get his feet set, only to have Blake come down and throw up one of those god awful hair balls of his.
Rudys defense is light years ahead of Blake!
Blake can’t stay ahead of a average point guard, on a grind it out team. He would need roller skates to keep up with a Tony Parker, or any other “quality” P.G..
We still need a Forward, with big enough stones to defend the paint. A spot we tend to bleed to death in.
I could be brutal in who I would trade to make this the team we really all dream of. My first trade would be to dump McMillan. No championship will EVER be won with McMillian’s game or should I say his lack of said game.
Dwight,
Don’t worry about replaying this issue again. It bears repeating until the roster represents a reasonable representation of the minutes earned/played based on performance/talent.
If we sign Turkoglu we definitely need to consolidate some other assets before they rot on the vine.
Torkoglu is an old man. Not my idea of a franchise player. Maybe for 2 years he might be good.
I do think he may play McMillans stodgy game. With the two Spaniards gone, maybe Blazers can get some of whatever chemistry McM has.