Breaking down the Houston-Portland series
Here are a few (of the many) things I DON’T know about this playoff series:
– Will Aaron Brooks step up and be the point guard the Rockets expected him to be when they shipped Rafer Alston off to Orlando? A lot of people think he’s the key guy in this series for Houston. I’m not sure if he’s quite ready for that yet.
– Will the Blazers, with playoff pressure that can make a basketball feel like a bowling ball, be able to make all those jump shots?
– Will the Rockets be able to score enough points to win if Chuck Hayes has to play more than 20 minutes a game because Luis Scola can’t guard LaMarcus Aldridge?
– Will Portland be able to run on Houston? Will Portland WANT to run on Houston?
– Will the Blazer coaching staff be able to handle the adjustments from game to game that need to be made in the postseason?
– Is no playoff experience actually better than six seasons of first-round playoff exits? You can say all you want about Portland’s inexperience, but I’m not so sure that if a team with a history of six straight first-round playoff flameouts gets down 2-0 in a series, it will be able to climb back into it.
– Will Brandon Roy survive the physical beatdown the Rockets will try to put on him?
– Will Yao Ming survive the physical beatdown the Blazers will try to put on him?
– Who will be the unsung player who will step up in this series and provide the contribution that will mean victory?
– Who will be the star player who will NOT step up in the series and thereby cost his team dearly?
– Has this city been this geeked up about ANYTHING for the past half-decade or so???
A few things I think I DO know about this series:
– The Blazers will be very difficult to beat on their home court, but the most vulnerable game they’ll have will be tonight’s game.
– Ron Artest, at some point in this series, will have a meltdown. The only question will be how severe it will be.
– There will be a moment at some point in one of these games when many Blazer fans will find a referee to blame for whatever bad things have happened.
– Portland’s youth is a big key. While everyone else seems to be dragging into the playoffs, the Blazers may seem a little banged up but they’re in way better shape than most other NBA teams. Portland’s energy should be a big key to this series.
– The city’s collective mood will rise and fall with the bounce of a ball over the next two weeks.
– The two coaching staffs will coach their tails off but in the end, they have a thankless job in the playoffs. If their team wins, the players get most of the credit. If their team loses, they get ALL the blame.
– Break it down. You can make a case that Portland is better than Houston at four of the five positions on the floor and off the bench. You can even say that at center – the one spot where the Rockets have an edge – Portland’s two centers, together, are as effective as what Houston has.
– The Trail Blazers will win their home games and steal a win in Houston, taking care of the Rockets in five games.
– Making predictions is a dicey proposition. Do not bet the mortgage on anything ANYONE says. Luck decides more games than we’d like to admit.
NBA, Trail Blazers | Dwight Jaynes | April 18, 2009
Aaron Brooks, Brandon Roy, Dwight Jaynes, Houston Rockets, NBA playoffs, Portland Trail Blazers, Ron Artest, Yao Ming
I like it in five also. I could even see you being right about them letting the first game slip, then four straight!!
Love being dicey sometimes!! Playoffs finally!
I also think you’re spot on about Ron Artantrum…
I have the Blazers in 5 as well. Artest will kill the Rockets, not necessarily on the court but in the locker room. If they get down he will be incorrigable and create infighting. After they lose because of it, Adelman will lose his job.
Tonight’s game IS key. If they win, this is over in five. If they drop it, we’re going seven. I see Rudy and Travis as the X-factors. When they play well, we’re tough to beat. If they disappear and everything falls on Roy and LaMarcus, we might be in trouble.
I especially agree with your last comment. Luck is a factor in any game, sometimes it is as simple as a bad bounce off the rim and other times it’s a lucky desperation toss at the basket that goes in. I take the Blazers in 7 games. I’ll be hoping I’m wrong and they do it in 4 or 5.
I don’t think Ron-Ron will be as detramental as everyone thinks. Artest may be crazy but he’s not a cancer and it seems like his teammates like playing with him (its the other team that doesn’t like playing with him and if you’re a Rockets fan that’s a good thing).
The locker room cancer who would have destroyed this team is T-Mac and just like a team player he is he shut it down just in time for this Houston team to take off.
It will be a real tough series for the Blazers but I see them winning it. It would be great if they could do it in five but I don’t see them winning a road game until game 6 at the earliest if at all. Blazers in 7.
If the Blazers take 7 games to beat the Rockets we have little chance against LA or Utah. (Hey, you can’t write off Utah ’til they lose.) Some would say we have little chance against LA anyway. I’m not in that camp. I also haven’t ruled out a surprise Utah win. Weirder things have happened. Ask the Celtics about Derrick Rose. He set the rookie record for most points in a playoff game and the others were all bigs. Utah is not expected to do anything so watch out.
Dwight, your analysis is topnotch as always. Taking the Blazers in 5 is ballsy. I think the pundits who said 7 either way don’t want to make the tough call so I admire that.
I’m not a pundit and I don’t mind being wrong in sports. You can’t be afraid to be wrong or you’ll never make the long-shot call. My pick is that the Blazers will sweep the Rockets. The 6 game series will be against the Lakers with Portland coming of age there too.
Would I bet that I’m right? I don’t bet sports thanks to a bad experience with a Raiders fan, but I’m coming off a football season that bordered on the psychic so you never know. Go Blazers.
Correction: Rose tied the record. See? I’m not afraid to be wrong in sports.
This doesn’t look like luck to me. The Blazers are flat out having their asses handed to them. Adelman and McMillan are not even on the same planet when it comes to coaching ability and exploiting weaknesses and putting the right guy in at the right time. McMillan is still sticking to his substitution patterns regardless of what is going on on the court at that moment. If only we had hired Adelman when he was available.
Maybe we need another rally at PIoneer Square. How’s Sunday? Okay, Monday…noon to 3-ish? Does that work for you?
I knew we should have drafted Adam Morrison. I knew it.
Typical. Nate goes from coach of the month then after one playoff game fans are all over him. Comes with the territory. There’s not much “coaching” can do to overcome the matchup advantages that the Rockets have over Portland. (That’s why calling this series in favor of the Blazers was the real mistake, Dwight) Houston is the worst possible matchup for Portland of all the teams in the Western Conference, including L*A. Nothing I saw during the game tonight surprised me; I’ve already seen this “movie” twice played on the road down in Texas, and the way the games are called in the playoffs just magnified all the ways that Houston gives Portland fits.
It’s not the coaching, people, it’s the rosters. KP didn’t “harden” his roster in February (by acquiring an experienced veteran or two, instead of hanging onto Travis/Sergio/Frye and Raef LaFrentz’ contract) to prepare for the postseason, and now Nate is short-handed and literally playing with boys against men. I hope this series will give Roy, Aldridge and Oden some valuable post-season experience, but they’ve gotta win game 2 first, before they can even think about a game 5, etc.
LOL blazers in 5 hahahahahahahhahaha
I have never posted once on this site something favorable towards McMillan. I’ve always thought he was an awful coach. I’ve been saying we should have hired Adelman since the last time he was available. So, two4larue, there may be many who supported Nate before tonight and then are down on him after tonight, but I’m not one of them. I’ve always thought he sucked.
Under Nate the Blazers have won around 10 more games each season than the year before.
They won 54 this year with 4 rookies making significant contributions.
It’s anyone’s right to say you don’t like him, but saying he sucks as a coach? Good luck trying to make a case for that.