About this Andre Miller business
They are reporting in Philadelphia that Miller is seeking $10 million a year. I have no idea what they’re putting in those Philly cheesesteaks these days but this guy has to be hallucinating. It isn’t going to happen for him at that price in this economy. Obviously it’s just a starting point in negotiations and the writer should have pointed that out.
And any talk of a sign-and-trade with the Trail Blazers at that price? No way. You can’t have $10 million of your cap space tied up with the likes of Andre Miller. Sorry, but a guy who over the last four seasons has made just 23 of his 122 three-point attempts? A man who has, during his career, made only 21 percent of his three-point field goals?
It isn’t just that he can’t make threes — it’s that he runs from them as if they’re his own personal Kryptonite.
That’s just plain ridiculous for most teams to sign him at that number, let alone a team that plays the kind of game Portland plays. The Blazers need shooters. They need players who keep the floor open.
A guy who can’t consistently make a three-point shot just can’t play alongside Brandon Roy at any price, can he? Roy needs people around him who can keep the defense away from him — guys who make defenses pay for double teams. I just cannot imagine that the Blazers’ interest in Miller is real.
It has to be a smokescreen, doesn’t it?
NBA, Trail Blazers | Dwight Jaynes | June 30, 2009
Andre Miller, Dwight Jaynes, NBA free agency, Philadelphia 76ers, Portland Trail Blazers
This is just posturing from his agent no doubt. Boozer probably can’t get that amount, so why would an aging PG?
More than shooters Dwight, don’t you think they need a point that can get the ball into the post consistently in scoring position? Miller can do that, but not as well as Kidd and certainly not for 10 million bucks. That’s just crazzy talk!
I love how the media(that includes you Dwight) are buying into every smoke screen. My bet is that what happens in Free Agency regarding the Blazers will be unforseen.
Tony — I would say I’m buying into a lot less than most. I’ve already said that Hinrich and Miller don’t make sense. I’ve also pushed the idea of unbalanced trades, which the general media seems to be overlooking. I’ve pushed Kidd, too — who the Blazers never seem to speak about. But sure, it’s a crapshoot with Portland because they don’t tell. That doesn’t mean we can’t speculate. And I think you’ll get informed speculation here, if nothing else.
The key point with Miller’s three point shooting is not his percentage its the fact that he rarely takes them. The Blazers have plenty of people to drop the long ball. We spent the majority of our minutes this year with two guys on the court who were able and willing to do little else on the offensive end (Blake, Trav, Rudy, Batum, Martell). Having one guy on the court who does that is great, having two guys creates stagnant offense.
Miller is exactly the complement to those shooters that the Blazers need. If his defense was better he would be a perfect fit. I don’t want to watch another season of this team living and dying by the long ball.
If we can see weakness in hedo/miller then you can sure bet KP and the boys can too,
Most of what we hear in rumors are months old,
you’re an idiot if you think KP can’t evaluate players in the NBA better than guys in college or euro leagues,
I agree its a smoke screen. The one that goes down is the one we don’t know about yet. We all will say ” I didn’t even think he was available.”
Go KP.
Miller doesn’t make sense, but why not Hinrich? He’s essentially Blake but a better defender and more aggressive offensively.
Same argument goes for Hinrich that goes for Miller.
Hinrich is a nice player, but the guy is going to average $9 million a year over the next 3-4 years of his contract. Hinrich too is not a great 3-point shooter, and while he’s considerably better defensively than Miller or Blake, Hinrich is not near the distributor and floor general that Miller is.
You simply cannot lock up $9 million in salary on a guy that is going to be your 5th best starter. And probably 7th best player.
Kidd can’t shoot the 3 either. Probably about as good at it as Miller, he just doesn’t shy away from them as often.
Hinrich can shoot it and fits in well. Yet, $9 million is a very, very steep price.
It’s not about how good the player we acquire is individually, or even how much we pay him, it’s about what the TEAM looks like with him on the floor. Who will make the TEAM much better. That is what has to be on Kevin Pritchard’s mind.
Miller can’t shoot the 3, is not much of a defender (he’s a tortoise in todays NBA) and torpedoed his team in the play-offs this year…
Let’s not act like the seven year old who just has to spend his birthday money even though he can’t find what he wants…..
If Kidd doesn’t fall in our laps or we can’t fleece New Jersey for Devin Harris I am perfectly content going into the season with what we have, remember teams will start giving up on their season after 15 games and dumping players like a garage sale…. Not to mention there are many around the nation who find Mills very intriguing, and we still all want to see what Bayless has…..
I for one still want to see this team grow into itself, find out what Martel has (thought last year was gonna be a big one for him), how Batum and Bayless progress with a year under their belt, not to mention Rudy, and even (can’t believe i’m saying this) if Outlaw learned anything from last year…..
If there are deals out there than great, but Andre Miller seems like spending just to spend…
Shucks, I’d rather see Anthony Carter from Denver come to P-town now that he seems expendable with Ty Lawson… Not a starter, but it adds some solid Veteran depth…..
In Hinrich, you’re talking about paying a guy who has averaged roughly 10 points and 5 assists per game $9 million over the next 3 years.
Those are Steve Blake numbers. At twice the price. It really is preposterous.
I should correct myself to add that those Hinrich stats are from the past two seasons.
He put up considerably better numbers earlier in his career. Which led to him getting that absurd contract.
I agree with Jacob Parks.
You have five other players who are all too eager to heave up 3s. Miller can still draw defenders because he actually goes strong to the basket, something I would have loved to have seen more Blazers do last year.
Maybe he isn’t a good jump shooter, but he’s got other skills — skills he showed when he burned us in the two games against Portland last year. I think he scored 30 in the March game.
Portland’s endless, contested 3 pointers or long-range jump shots last year — even from LaMarcus — were absolutely frustrating to watch. So for me, it would be really nice to have somebody that adds a different dimension.
But having said all that, I certainly wouldn’t give the 33-year-old Miller the $7-$10 million a year he’s reportedly asking for.
Since Miller doesn’t shoot the three well, one could say that his running away from shooting a 3 is a good thing, since he knows his limitations and minimizes what he does worst
. Also, Miller is a much better point guard than Blake and could become a major contributor if acquired.
That being said, if we were going after a point guard via free agency or trade, I’d much rather have Kidd, Rondo, Calderon, or Nash (in that order) than Miller. Also, though many people claim that our biggest weakness is point guard, the data begs to differ. The biggest impact the team can make is by acquiring a more productive power forward (Antonio McDyess for example would be an excellent acquisition).
Dont forget Devin Harris, shot about 29% on 3s last year. Plus he and Andre Miller both shot the ball over 1000 times. Blake and Kidd each shot the ball around 650 times. Kidd shot over 40% on 3s. Personally I think if you can’t make a trade that really makes you better, do nothing, but if we take Kidd, a big 1, he increases Bayless’ value also, because they could play together. That allows Ptld to make a trade for a big time 3, using Rudy as part of the package. That would have to be a true star quality 3, though. Who would we want? Granger? Tayshaun? Caron Butler? Maybe we are better off getting Kidd and doing nothing else, except maybe finding a vet 4, like McDyess or Kurt Thomas.
The more I think about it, the more I am almost certain that the Blazers need to lock-up Hedo Turkoglu. If they can sign Hedo, I think they have a shot at the #1 seed in the West and a championship is a realistic goal.
Positives:
-he would basically slip into Blake’s role, as the default PG/off-guard, is a deadly shooter and a far better 3 point shooter than Blake, far better rebounder than Travis, or Blake, whose minutes he would eat up
-he can create his own shot
-really long at 6’10
-above average defensively (see the block on Kobe)
-not afraid of the big stage at all, see entire playoffs
-Laker killer
-awesome slasher
-will save the wear and tear on Brandon by handling the ball and setting others up in a 2 man game
-perfect compliment to our current roster, played well with bigs Howard, Divac, and will play well with Oden and LMA
-great passer (with Rudy they would be dynamic)
-can you imagine the length and height on the floor! (Roy, LMA, Oden, Batum, and Hedo) or (Rudy, Martell, Pendergraph, Pryz and Hedo)
-unbelievable flexibiliy with your lineups
-in his prime 30 years old!
Negatives:
-money, money, money
-I think it will take close to Rashard Lewis money. Rashard is a great player but the best player on that team was Hedo. I think Hedo knows all this.
-lots of competition for his services
I’m starting to come around to Kidd or Nash. But both have to come at a reasonable price.
Arvydas…you made some good points, but lost me when you called Hedo “above average defensively”. The guy is a BRUTAL team defender, and you can’t base your opinnion off of one blocked shot. He can’t stay in front of most NBA 3′s…and at 6’10″ he doesn’t provide any low post defensive presence.
I like him as a player, but we can’t pay this guy that much money. Spend the money on a Veteran PG in a sign and trade that includes Outlaw. The rest depends on our confidence in Webster’s heath and ability to come back strong. If Webster is ok, he and Batum are just fine at the 3.
Portland has plenty of guys who can shoot the 3. Many of us complained last year that guys were too quick to settle for the 3. Dwight, I prefer to focus on what Miller does well. He punishes point pgs with his strength, goes to the hole hard, he’s a creative passer who knows how to get the ball into the post (also is a great lob passer) and he’s an iron man. The guy has never played less than 80 games in a season. His lack of 3 point shooting has not stopped him from being a very good player. People have said the same thing about Kidd and he’s going to be a Hall of Famer. Miller knows what he does well and he takes advantage of his skills. He has a pretty solid shooting percentage which shows that he knows what a good shot is. Now, with all of that being said, I’m not sure he’s the right fit, but I’ll let Kevin Pritchard and Nate Macmillan make that decision. If they think he is the right fit, then he’s the right fit for me. I do agree that $10 million is too high. It’s too high for Hedo as well. I wouldn’t be shocked if Portland lands both of these guys without having to pay either one $10 million.
Arvydas…(I mean Hedo’s agent). Laker killer? Above Average defender? If he were all of those things, he would have the ring to prove it, not Kobe.
http://blog.nola.com/hornetsbeat/2009/06/new_orleans_could_spend_up_to.html
maybe there is a way to get cp3, this report says hornets have the highest payroll at this point for next year.
I’m not a huge fan of Kidd, but I think he’d be the best bet for Portland. Kidd, historically, didn’t have a decent three ball, but over the past two seasons, he’s improved quite a bit.
In fact, he would have been the second-best three point shooter last year for Portland based on shooting percentages — behind Steve Blake.
So, maybe the crux of this argument that Portland needs a three-point shooter is flawed. I mean, Blake is a top-tier shooter in the league (13th) and we saw how far that got PDX.
Maybe a PG with some lockdown D would be good?
I would actually love to see Portland get Mario Chalmers as a backup for Blake … I’m not enough of a basketball salary cap guru to know how to make that happen.
Hate to attempt to add anything when so many have already written on the topic. My point, however, is mercifully brief: Dwight, your comment describes Miller as a “smoke screen.” Well, maybe, but probably Miller is better characterized as a second option, in the event Gordon signs and stays with the Pistons and Chigago then keeps Hinrich. Our wonderboy from the fair state of Kansas might deke another GM, but here he might just be trying not to burn bridges with his second option until whether trade for Hinrich is clear.
Your time tested skepticism and cynicism may have led you astray in this instance.
I think Miller would be a great pick up for Portland. Here’s why:
- He’s the anti-Aaron Brooks point guard. He punishes those smaller, quick guys in the post. He even punishes decent-sized PGs in the post. If you don’t believe me, re-watch the Philadelphia at Portland game and see him school Blake on several possessions. If the double comes, he’s an outstanding passer.
- He’s a fantastic finisher despite a lack of jets and hops. He’s deadly inside 10 feet with his midrange jumper despite an unorthodox delivery, and he is able to effectively use angles and screens to drive and finish at the hole when not posting up.
- Even if he looks like he moves like sluggishly in the half court, he is fantastic at running the fast break and setting up more athletic teammates, like an Andre Igoudala or LaMarcus Aldridge.
- He’s tough. He’s played all 82 games over multiple seasons, playing through injuries if needed. Last year he played a career year despite a calf injury.
- As had been pointed out elsewhere, nobody can guard Tony Parker. By themselves that is. So even if Miller was an ace defender (which he isn’t), it woudn’t matter if the team he played with didn’t play team defense. A decent defender should know his limits and know how to force quicker players to where he knows help from his teammates is waiting. Trading for a point guard that can keep up with the Tony Parkers of the league won’t matter the least bit if the team doesn’t learn how to play team defense and defend the pick and roll.
- Three point shooting is overrated. Even the best teams can go cold. Ask the Magic. Re-watch the first half of the Philadelphia at Portland game where Philly embarrassed Portland but getting to the hole at will while chucked up brick after from beyond the arc. There’s simply no substitute for getting the ball to the hole. Miller is a floor general that can feed the post, run the break, throw alley-oops, pick and roll, post up smaller players, etc. He has unique skills that make him a headache for a lot of teams.
I think the sleeper is Calderon.
Toronto is resigning themselves to losing Bosh and going into full-on rebuilding mode.
I dunno folks…I think the last thing we need is another slow point guard
If we do make changes at the point, I hope they bring someone who can really defend and breakdown defenses on the other end…
I know it is a longshot, but the Hornets are so screwed cap wise…I wonder if they would trade Chris Paul? How much would it take?
Before you call me foolish, remember the Lakers getting Gasol?
When it comes to the PG, we should dream big
Jeez, these comments are crazy. You guys review players based on what they can do for the offense. Last year Portland was one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA.
The Achille’s Heel for this team is perimeter defense and fighting through picks. You can quote this guy’s 3 pt%, that guy’s driving to the basket, that other guy’s ball handling & side pick&roll. Perimeter D and fighting through picks is what hurts this team. Keep Oden on the floor and not on the bench with fouls – get a perimeter defender and a guy who fights through picks. That’s one reason I like Hinrich, but there have to be other guys available for the right offer…
Stop focusing on the offense and start playing defense!
I understand why there is a fascination with Miller and also Hinrich. We are a jump shooting team, and that is both our strength and our biggest weakness. Clearly we want to develop the pick and roll more, and take advantage of LaMarcus, and Greg, and become less dependent on the jump shot. Hinrich and Miller are far better pick and roll PG’s that Steve Blake.
When comparing the 3 this is what you get.
Shooting % – Miller has the highest shooting %, then Hinrich, then Blake. That is very heavily related the number of 3′s they take. Miller seldom shoots threes, and shoots a very low %. Hinrich and Blake shoot the same amount, and Hinrich is slightly higher %.
True Shooting % – This is essentially a measure of points per shot attempt. Miller is slightly better than the other 2, but the difference is minimal.
FTA and FT% – Miller shoots 4.7 per 36 minutes, Hinrich 2.9, Blake 1.4. Hinrich makes 81.5%, Miller 80, Blake 78%. This is a big measure of pick and roll.
Assist % – Miller easily generates the highest % of the three. His assist % is 35.4, Hinrich, 30, and Blake 26.
Turnover rate – Miller will generate 16.4 TO/100 plays, Hinrich 14.7, Blake 16.5.
Rebound rate – % of rebounds by player while on the floor. Miller is highest at 7%, Hinrich 5.6%, Blake 4.8%.
Points produced per 100 possessions
Miller – 110
Blake – 108
Hinrich – 107
Points allowed per 100 possessions
Hinrich – 105
Miller – 107
Blake – 111
Wins produced per full season as a starter (36 minutes 82 games)
Miller – 7.66
Hinrich – 7.07
Blake – 4.18
The difference between them is that Miller is more of a classic pick and roll distribution PG, who gets to the FT line, dominates the ball, but seldom shoots the 3. Blake is the opposite, does not do much in the P&R, shoots lots of 3′s, seldom gets to the line, and does not dominate the ball. Hinrich is somewhere in between.
It seems to me that the best option in Hinrich. He is 5 years younger than Miller, is a better defender, better deep shooter, but he can be effective in P&R, gets to the line a reasonable amount, can run the offense, but can be successful when he defers to others.
If I’m an agent and I’m representing a PG, SF, or PF, you can be sure that I will be floating a rumor that the Blazers are interested in signing my player.
To me, this is why you have to ignore the rumor mill and look at it in terms of what makes the most sense for this team (addressing weaknesses on and off the floor, what is possible for FA’s, what is feasible in terms of sign-and-trade or imbalanced trades, etc.).
Like Dwight I’m down on Miller and I’m warming up to Hedo, but ultimately I’m suspicious that both are smokescreens.
AMEN! It’s gotten to the point where I’m actually ticked off when I see somebody say Miller would be a “good fit” for the team.